Westminstenders: Christmas Cold, Campaigning, Canvassing and Cancelled Carols

[RedToothBrush]

It looks like a December General Election is on.

The EU have officially extended A50 until 31st January. We have to name an EU Commissioner though.

All that seems left to do is decide between the 9th and 12th December.

The difference between the two is about whether there is any possibility that the WAB can be passed before Parliament dissolves.

A pre-brexit GE is thought to favour the LDs at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. What the Brexit Party decide to do and where they decide to stand will also be crucial.

That's going too far for me DGRossetti, campaign's going to get ugly enough as it is

Lol Basil ready to throw down

@TheMShip welcome to my life! Get a lot of 'advertising' like that here unfortunately.

Pretty sure companies advertising bods discuss it and go something like it will be ripped to shreds and we will have to pull it but think how much advertising we will get from that alone. Dooo it

Heard on the R2 news that hundreds of thousands (three?) had registered to vote in the last 3 days and the majority were under 34

Oh my gosh....that's BRILLIANT! I might be crazy but I actually feel a little hopeful about this election. I think we could topple the Tories.

YouGov
@YouGov
· 2h
Voting intention among 18-24 year olds
Lab - 38%
Lib Dem - 18%
Con - 16%
Green - 15%
Brexit Party - 5%

Voting intention among 70+ year olds
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 14%
Lib Dem - 14%
Lab - 9%
Green - 2%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/31/2019-general-election-demographics-dividing-britai?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=demographics_dividing_britain_2019

TheMShip

I remember the 'Black and Tan' adverts. I think Ben & Jerry and Nike were the culprits then.

Let's hope for blizzards to keep the elderly indoors. Only half joking.

My mum will be voting in Northern Ireland. Anyone but unionist is her motto!

Didn’t Guinness (Unbelievably) get Into trouble over Black and Tan.

Find it hard to believe it ever got signed off.

Ooh Bridgen and Bercow going at it!!

BasilPots

Have fun! I’m sure you’ll find a way to spin big Tory poll leads into a huge win for Corbyn with your usual ingenuity

😂😂 I like the sound of your mum, Placemats.

Boris Johnson says the govt has got an "oven ready deal" which they will "put in the microwave".

See Boris is probably accidentally telling the truth here.

No Cendrillion I just give the whole picture.

Don’t know is a perfectly reasonable position to have and it should be reflected in the polls.

Surely Jeremy Thorpe was openly gay - though admittedly his 'coming out' in 79 was a trifle melodramatic :)

Don’t know is a perfectly reasonable position to have and it should be reflected in the polls.

And the fact that people who “Don’t Know” are by definition less likely to be politically engaged and actually vote? I’m not saying they should be ignored, but your presumption that including them is some magic statistical panacea that has eluded all the major polling organizations is a bit simplistic.

I’m very politically engaged and would poll as a Don’t Know currently. My constituency is remain but Raab at the helm. So I’ll be voting labour or libdem, whichever is more likely to reduce his majority.

And the fact that people who “Don’t Know” are by definition less likely to be politically engaged and actually vote?

Not sure that follows. You could make an argument politically engaged people are following politics so more likely to keep an open mind and vote depending on current events, and less politically engaged are the "I've voted labour/conservative all my life" types

The won’t votes are taken out before the Don’t knows.

I include the won’t votes because they also include the maybes in some polls.

Some polls include anybody who indicates a more than fifty percent chance of voting some don’t.

Some show how many are in the electoral register some don’t.

All these people are part of the voting population to ‘edit’ them out to try and indicate that 40% of the electorate are going to vote a certain way is misleading.

And limits wind up opportunities.

If you don’t like it don’t read.

It is going to be a real boring and very nasty election. Every time I turn the news on they are always having a go about JC. The bias is ridiculous! BJ looked a Pratt in his white coat at Addenbrookes hospital and as usual doesn't know a microwave from an oven twat!

I don't think Jeremy Thorpe did come out at that time though.

I wouldn't worry too much about Cendrillon posts. I've long concluded that if they what they previously said they are, a Tory remainer, who doesn't think much of the current government, I think they just come on here for therapy. I see it as us providing them a service.

I think discounting the Don't Knows in times as politically volatile as these is a dangerous exercise in complacency.

I did say “less likely”. Nonetheless, I’m fairly certain that “Don’t Knows” historically have lower turnout, and so their tendencies should not receive the same weight as declared voters. Of course, some DKs will be super-political types who haven’t yet identified the optimal tactical option, but it’s a brave assumption to think that is true of most of them, and brave also to assume that those who are are necessarily vacillating between left/Remain options.

If asked, three don’t knows in this house all who will definitely vote.