Westminstenders: Christmas Cold, Campaigning, Canvassing and Cancelled Carols

[RedToothBrush]

It looks like a December General Election is on.

The EU have officially extended A50 until 31st January. We have to name an EU Commissioner though.

All that seems left to do is decide between the 9th and 12th December.

The difference between the two is about whether there is any possibility that the WAB can be passed before Parliament dissolves.

A pre-brexit GE is thought to favour the LDs at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. What the Brexit Party decide to do and where they decide to stand will also be crucial.

See this is the thing Workington Man isn't going to be too impressed by

Peter Walker @peterwalker99
On Sky, Matt Hanock says new cancer treatments are being rolled out "from Barnsley to Bassetlaw; from Wigan to Warrington."

Kay Burley: "That's not very far, you know."

Hancock: "It's also happening in Cornwall."

Thanks for the pumpkin love 🎃 @TheElementsSong I have several star icing and cookie cutters so used one of those to draw around as a loose outline. They are t very equal but it was 3 inches thick in places so was tough to do. I used a pumpkin carving set from Tesco and the handle of a wooden spoon to poke the bits out. Ds is having a few friends over tomorrow (and will shout them down for food by shouting "clear the lobby! ") and we are very much liking forward to celebrating. I felt very down last night due to floating in the other place but we have got the extension and I have hope.

That's a beautiful and very clever EU pumpkin, bercow

"One can call out bullshit without helping the tories.
Staying silent is also playing right into their hands too"

We should always correct lies and misunderstandings, but there is no need for - or gain from - insults against ordinary voters

If you feel you'll burst, then save them up all the insults for the Weasel, the Dust-Spaffer, Pot Noodle etc

Moral high ground is very much required. It is essential.

I do agree with this.

Be the change you want to see and all that.

If our political and social media cultures are becoming dangerously toxic, that isn't made better by resorting to yet more insults. It just feeds the us v them culture being deliberately fostered and manipulated.

When good people are leaving politics because of the toxic culture, we all have a responsibility to not add our voice to the toxicity, whether we feel justified or not.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/is-a-general-election-before-christmas-inevitable/id1201901755?i=1000454765431

Discussion on views of northern/Labour voters is discussed for those interested.

I do wonder if the Tories are replacing the moderate tory mps with brexshit headbangers...

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/december-election-gamble-johnson-corbynukk5db8c45de4b00d83f71ee64c?utmhppref=uk-homepage

In the Commons, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn looked happier than they have been for months
.... both prefer the excitement of the campaign stump to their more staid parliamentary duties.

Labour MPs looked decidedly less unenthusiastic than Corbyn as he backed a December polling day at the despatch box.

‘Gobble, gobble,’ one backbencher with a penchant for gallows humour joked to me, suggesting his leader was living proof that turkeys really do vote for Christmas.

Whereas Johnson was cheered to the rafters by Tory MPs as he addressed his backbench 1922 committee,
Corbyn may have seen tumbleweed go by if he’d tried to rally his PLP.
.....
there are quite a few Tories who have their own worries about fighting an election without Brexit actually being delivered.

The Brexit Party is gearing up with its winter campaign merchandise
and all those ads showing Boris Johnson pledgingg^ to get the UK out of the EU by October 31 will play on a loop.

Conservatives may also be spooked by polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice’s predictionon*^ that there will be “a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs” elected:

the SNP taking seats from Labour and the Tories
and the Lib Dems on the up too.

’We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”

It's important - but difficult - to try to resist the temptation to insult and/or counter with "killer" questions or points. It just builds resistance

Better to try to re-frame the particular concern that the individual you are talking to has; ask them what would address their specific concern and get them to see what a (realistic) solution is. Try and turn the issue that they perceive as a positive from yours. But try and nudge them that way themselves. Even if you only get them a small way, that's progress.

There are of course the 20% who're never going to change their minds and are totally entrenched. Walk away from them - don't even bother engaging. We're pretty good at doing that on these threads

John Curtice: "We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties."

Better track record of analyses / predictions than most - he even predicted Brexit

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/

"That matters for two reasons:

The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority
if you're taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.

"Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election.
It's an election that Boris Johnson has to win.
If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere.
< except maybe the DUPes - but then he'd have to go for No Deal >

"The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way.

"Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit,
but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority.

PMQs is pretty feisty

Denying the tories a majority is the end game in this GE, surely?

What the fuck did policing in London have to do with raw sewage in a hospital you dozy prat?

Would it be wrong if me to borrow one of the kids dress up robes, buy a grey wig and gavel, and take the kids trick or treating round out leave area dressed as John Bercow?

I hope labour make a big push to the students in Uxbridge, convincing them to stay on an vote there. It will be quite an achievement for them to be part of the electorate who voted out a sitting Prime Minister. It would knock the Michael Portillo moment into a cocked hat.

... assuming he's not parachuted into a safer seat. But then there's no way 'hard man' Boris can spin that. That is just him running scared. And that safe seat may become less safe as a consequence.

@OhLookHeKickedTheBall doooo it.

Everyone is being so lovely to Bercow. I am so going to miss him

Tory MPs laughing at Jeremy Corbyn’s bright green tie. “I know you’re all jealous,” he says.

Theresa May absolutely fuming on Tory backbenches. “It’s for Grenfell,” she hisses at colleagues.

You think they would know that.Pippa Crerar

Thanks Bercow I've got my carving kit and my cookie cutters... I'm going in!

That is a great pumpkin Bercows!

couldnt face pmq today.

Dither. Jesus BoZo has that word stuck in his craw doesn't he!

OYBBK - I was the same

There's only so much lying and bluster than I can thole

Labour share such TRA policies as self-ID with the LDems, Greens, SNP and a section of the Tory party
It's a turnoff to much of the traditional Labour vote

I think along with a lot of other things I think this swing of the pendulum is inevitable before it comes back to somewhere sensible and I think that appeals to the younger generation that ascribe to the rights of trans people, I seem to be a lot less worried about it than a lot of MN posters on that

Yeah since the last election we've been using the slogan 'For the many not the few' but as always the trolls change it to 'for the many not the jew' but internal HOC polling data shows how over blown the coverage has been and internal Labour procedure is already trying to deal with the antisemitsm within Labour but its certainly been used by those with an axe to grind against Corbyn

(Occasional poster name-changed).

I was about to bung a few quid to the Lib Dems, but it then it occurred to me that it might be better spent on the BXP. Semi-joking here, but should we all be out in Tory marginals, flyering for Nige...?

Looking at the stats for Workington, for example, the Conservatives had a modest majority (over Labour) of 4000 in 2017. A good night for the Brexit party would still see them nowhere near getting a seat, but could leave the path clear for Labour...

What say...?

There are already 100+ MPs who are neither Labour nor Conservative - that is despite one of the highest levels of polling ever for both main parties in 2017.

Given SNP will poll 40+ seats and LibDems polled 50+ in 2010 it seems somewhat of a statement of the obvious by Prof Curtice. The more pertinent question is how well will Labour do?

Poor John trying not to cry.