Westminstenders: Christmas Cold, Campaigning, Canvassing and Cancelled Carols

[RedToothBrush]

It looks like a December General Election is on.

The EU have officially extended A50 until 31st January. We have to name an EU Commissioner though.

All that seems left to do is decide between the 9th and 12th December.

The difference between the two is about whether there is any possibility that the WAB can be passed before Parliament dissolves.

A pre-brexit GE is thought to favour the LDs at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. What the Brexit Party decide to do and where they decide to stand will also be crucial.

I also think his preferred (and that of his ERG mates) position is no deal at all. I don't think he'll bother trying to pass his deal if he gets a majority. I know there's NI to consider but would he care? Really?

We're going to be drowning in the fuckers, @chomalungma!

I wonder how many 'visitors' MN will have over the next 6 weeks?

Yep, an army of hungry little trolls.

I live in a rebel constituency in the Tory heartlands. At present we have no Conservative official candidate (checked their website again).
The big gamble locally are just how many Tory seats could be lost - which will increase massively if many have a Brexit party candidate. If Boris loses seats here, and he is doing little to reconcile himself to disaffected Tories locally - I can't see he has a hope of making up the numbers in the Northern seats he is going after.

I wonder how many 'visitors' MN will have over the next 6 weeks?

Theyre gonna be plopping all over the place, and I steak my claim now I shall be the only leftie Troll I'll accept on this thread

Omg *stake

Feel a bit sick with nerves and might take a few days news detox. It’s the hope that kills you aye...

FWIW, I think the tories are fucked. But.

Boris Johnson must steal voters from Labour in Northern rugby towns like Workington for General Election success

I think that thinking like this is hopelessly over-simplistic and counter-productive in 2019 on the basis that it's not 1997, and two generations have grown up and moved around. The huge monolithic communities of the post-war era that fragmented during the 70s and 80s are never coming back.

It's why 2017 was so badly called, and makes trying to translate support into votes in 2019 just as muck a dark art as an exercise in statistics.

But there is no way is there that Boris can have one final push for his WAB/WAIB or whatever it is before purdah?

That was the promise that secured Corbyns backing, I believe ?

I’m in an absolute northern labour stronghold here so don’t feel like I can make much difference! Over 70% labour in 2017 , our MP is great.

If "Workington Man" is going to be targeted by the Conservatives in their effort to win, then every effort has to be made to get Workington Woman to vote As basilpots analysis (and other analysis I've seen) has shown, the "Don't Knows" tend to be Women, more left-wing and Remain.

Re coalitions and minority government: the failure in WM just demonstrates how immature Westminster politics is The voting system for the Scottish Parliament was designed to never have an overall majority in an effort to keep the SNP from power it failed . In 5 Scottish Parliaments to date, there have been 2 coalition governments, 1 majority government and 2 minority governments - all of them stable.

I'll bow to Potterhead's greater knowledge of Irish politics about the negative experience of a rainbow coalition - but isn't the current Irish government a minority one? Admittedly the clusterfuck over here has helped ensure support for their approach

I am sure there will be micro-targetting with ads. I wonder how many of these ads will come to light for everyone else?

Appealing to Workington Man with some strong personalised messages could backfire with other Tory supporters elsewhere who could be repulsed by the messages.

I hope that all campaigners have learnt about social media from the last 2 campaigns - the referendum and the 2017 election.

Re - his deal. Well it's why the SNP and Lib Dem's didn't want the 12th as it wouldn't give him time.
Remember his deal still allows for no deal...... and he will get a bounce in the polls if he can say he has the deal through Parliament. We shall see- he might not have the numbers? Depends how many Labour numpties are prepared to abandon their values.....

It's why 2017 was so badly called, and makes trying to translate support into votes in 2019 just as muck a dark art as an exercise in statistics.

Yes! Which is why that Tactical Vote page is too simplistic. It says for my constituency that Labour came second last time so vote for them. Totally disregarding that we've never been a Labour seat. And that times are odd right now.

We need to wait for constituency polling really.

Workington Women does need to be targetted - I think the massive focus on what austerity has done, what impact policies have on issues that matter to them - or overwhelmingly tend to impact on women - needs to front and centre.

Social care, education, the cost of food, GP access, NHS, childcare....these are all things that matter - and I am going to make a wild guess that 'Workington Man' isn't overwhelmingly concerned with,

squid4 has reminded me that the largest employer in the UK is the NHS.

Anyone who works for, or believes in, the NHS who votes Conservative is a numpty.

Workington Man really is code for Neanderthal, isn't it?!

Workington Man really is code for Neanderthal, isn't it?!

Easily identified by the scrapped knuckles from dragging

I know I've posted this before but heres what Labour want to accomplish

I will probably vote on local issues
but
what is Labour's SOUNDBITE Brexit policy going to be?
the one that is comprehensible to a Tabloid Reader Workington Man
no more than five words

Tactical Voting
Students are absolutely key here
if they live in a safe seat they should vote at Campus to turn those seats
if they live in a Marginal they should vote at home to turn those

but Students MUST understand that their vote matters now more than ever

It is their future we are voting about

God, that list Justanotherposter ... it really is the hope that kills you isn’t it?