Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

I had a visit from my benefits assessor – and now I fear the state more than poverty

Things will only get worse under another hard right Tory govt
This is what people would be voting for, not the old One Nation Tory party

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/26/benefit-assessor-more-afraid-state-poverty#comment-134778479

Yes. I read that article, BigChoc. That is the reality of PIP and all health benefit assessments.

I've taught in schools where there aren't enough pencils to go round, and others where lessons stop when it rains because you have to move desks away from the leaks in the roof and keep emptying buckets.

DJ's father has never recovered after a heart operation was delayed twice.

I waited 7 months to see a consultant and became so ill in that time I effectively lost use of my arms.

It's grim.

Schools her (primary) feed 200 of their pupils in the morning because of family poverty.

Children out of school for over a year because SEND cuts mean there is no adequate provision for them.

I meet people already affected by the nightmare of 'settled status'.

I could go on and on.

But ... I really do think Johnson may actually end up with a majority.

It's terrifying.

My DD works in a school. We are regulars in Hobbycraft picking up craft items so the children can have better lessons as there is no budget for ‘luxury’ items particularly near the end of year. All her handouts she prints at home we supply all the paper and ink cartridges. It’s plain wrong.

Fucking hell. Will the stress ever end? So much uncertainty not just on brexit itself but on every aspect of it and around it and everything affected by it.

The awful irony Cat is Brexit diverts attention from the affects of austerity on our public services and the inequalities of our country and tragic scandals like Windrush and Grenfell. Brexit is almost one huge dead cat which deflects from the failings of this Conservative tenure.

Ah, having seen this, I now can make sense of their plan.

A pre-Christmas election will be a crisis. BJ for sure to get in with a majority with centre/centre left/left split between LD/Labour/SNP and him coming across as the hard man of Brexit, he'll pull the Brexit party votes. Add to the mix that many of the Tory rebels said they wouldn't stand again opening up opportunities for more dim witted far right Tories to be elected is depressing to the extreme. I'll vote strategically but none of the party leaders inspire confidence.

Shit or bust Bercows

Brexiteer Labour MP Kate Hoey says it will be “very difficult” for her own party to win an election “because we haven’t done what we’ve said in our manifesto”.

She does know Labour didn't win? So many Labour MPs (Flint, De Piero et al) trot out this shite that I'm not convinced they understand what a manifesto is for.

Sunday papers:

I know Swedish if you are not in Government it’s pretty difficult to meet any of your manifesto promises.

@DrBlackbird, I don't agree. BoZo has to run any election on the basis of this GREAT deal he's just got. He's lost his ability to campaign on a no deal basis. Those Brexiteers who reckon they want no deal because they're too thick and / or selfish to appreciate what it really means will vote BXP, therefore splitting the vote on the right.

Remainers are more likely to vote tactically. And parties will be stepping down in some seats to help each other. The remain parties are very tactical and very organised. This has been war gamed for ages.

The polls, for what use they are, show that BoZo fairs badly after a Brexit delay. Farage will absolutely play on this failure to 'deliver' Brexit. Any hope of a BXP / Tory alliance is dead (for now).

I think this is the best time for a GE (not in the actual month, but the situation we will be in) as the right's vote will split. And some people are seeing BoZo for what he is. I doubt he'll carry all of his moderates, some of whom aren't 'just vote blue' given what's gone on.

Fluffy I really hope that you're right and that Brexit will shake voters out of their apathy. I'm just dismayed by the number of people telling me that they're impressed by him by 'trying to get Brexit done'. The continued lack of knowledge by most people I know on what Brexit means for the uk is depressing.

*lack of knowledge!!!

Thing is, they're impressed now. When he's failed and it's yet another extension, some voters will punish him and the BXP will play on that. They're even trashing his 'deal'. So shit deal and still can't get it through Parliament = BoZo is a failure. And voters are bloody fickle (or some are).

The ones who are impressed by sound bites AND are frustrated about Brexit will vote BXP.

I am utterly against the massive numbers being forced into Degrees nowadays
its not good for them
its not good for business
its not good for the Exchequer

It all depends on the degrees and that is a function of policy-making.
The problem with UK 'educational policy' is that there isn't any coherence to it. It mainly consists of soundbites appealing to atavistic tendencies among voters. 'Access for all!'; 'Bring back the cane!'; 'Teachers' unions are a bunch of whining Commies!'

The loans inherent to degrees are not necessarily 100% bad for the Exchequer. They're not by any means even 52% good for it though. The loans are packaged into tranches and sold. The system as conceived is very similar to tax farming. As with tax farming, it bespeaks an exchequer resorting to desperate measures, and as with tax farming, rationalising or developing the sector being taxed takes second place to squeezing revenue out of it.

Why is that they are never credited for it?
Because they enabled austerity? They chose to stay in coalition.

Graduate tax? That was already there as higher rate income tax.
I went through uni on a grant and ended up paying higher rate tax for 30 years. It is criminal that today's kids have to take on silly levels of debt at usurious interest rates - with no guarantee that the rates or loan conditions won't be changed retrospectively. (as has already happened)

Basically the loans system is insane - the interest levels serve only to increase the sums that won't be paid off and eventually end up as part of the debt - in the meantime the student loans co cream off a very nice margin thank you.

We used to pat ourselves on the back and say we were good at innovation/ideas but crap at leveraging the ideas. A huge part of innovation excellence was an education system that allowed students to follow their interests rather than being channelled into professions with a salary focus. A generation from today we'll have lost that advantage.

It's those polls that worry me. With Tories consistently ahead. My biggest hope is BJ fulfilling the quote 'the biggest risk to Boris is Boris '. The more he's in the public, the more PMQ's he's forced to take, the more opportunities for him to reveal himself as the empty narcissist he really is...

What did the polls say in the lead up to the 1997 election? I was at uni then and had no interest in politics but remember the exuberance of the new labour win.

Blair was over 25% ahead at times
So 1997 was a landslide, but predicted by all polls for months

And Scotland is not exactly going but is headed for arm-length self-govt, not entirely unlike Northern Ireland until 1969.

I think that ship has sailed. It might have been possible in the 80s, even the 90s but since the 2000s (and especially since 2010), the mood has changed.

The fact that the SNP took over in 2007 as a Minority government and then won a majority in 2011 (in a system designed never to have a majority: they "broke" the d'Hondt system) and are still the government (back to a minority government in 2016 after the d'Hondt system worked again) in an Indy supporting Parliament suggests a fundamental shift.

Devo Max might even have succeeded in 2014 - even possibly in 2015, but the events since 2016 and the complete disregard for, and disdain of, Scotland has hardened views - and also changed the minds of some that weren't in favour of Independence before (not, I hasten to add, everyone - that will never happen - but they only need to change the minds of 15%).

I have no idea why (and even if) the SNP are supporting the idea of a 9 December election. I can see the sense and logic of the joint letter to Tusk from Blackford and Swinson. It's pretty much what we've been saying on these threads anyway.

So we have a 9th Dec GE as a last ditch to stop Brexit cos the SNP and LD have always played to win rather than compromise.

If they lose we end up with a Johnson majority to dismantle justice and democracy as we know it in this country.

Whoopie.

Labour? Who the fuck are Labour?

Honestly all of them are tossers.

It will be interesting to see what this week brings...