Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

I'm enjoying looking at all the trusting little faces of Westministender pets

< BUT, still nothing to prevent a Tory govt repealing this after a GE win, because it would not be in the binding WA part >

Why do you think this? It would be an amendment to Clause 30 of the WAB?

The government's timetable is designed to frustrate Brexit scrutiny

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/governments-timetable-designed-frustrate-brexit-scrutiny

The government’s proposed timetable for Commons scrutiny of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) would be deeply inadequate for any major piece of government legislation.
For a constitutional bill which makes probably the most significant changes to the UK’s position in the world that the Commons has been asked to consider for decades, it is extraordinary.

The government must know this, but
it is asking MPs to agree the timetable or be seen to be thwarting Brexit.

In my neck of the woods, there are still a sizeable number of people that still haven't accepted the creation of Sandwell - in 1974. It's a running local sore that seems to refuse to go away.

Imagine that level of obsession over Brexit - which will affect every single parish, city, county and country - for the next 45 years ....

"Why do you think this? It would be an amendment to Clause 30 of the WAB?"

The WAB would afaik be UK law only - not part of the international treaty with the EU - and hence can be amended by any future Parliament

Anything that is part of the WA itself cannot be amended unilaterally, but must be first agreed with the EU, or they may not pass the WA

Right, get you know - thx.

Rob Powell@robpowellnews

Here we go ...
Boles amendment giving more power to MPs to force an extension to the standstill transition period.
The battle over a 2020 no (trade) deal has started

Brexiteers would not be happy if this passed.
Remember John Baron’s comments saying he had been given assurances by govt of no extensions to the transition if a trade deal isn’t done by Dec 2020.

Of course, the precise impact of an amendment like this totally depends on the make up of the Commons in Dec 2020 (almost certainly after an election).

If the PM has a solid majority who are happy to leave without a trade deal and don’t want delay, it makes little difference.




This was Nikki da Costa’s estimation of time required for a WAB to go through Parliament (tweet from last December) - 37 days!

imo, these amendments are still worth doing

• they confound the ERG ! and would give strength to moderate Tories after a GE

They could help if there is hung Parliament after a GE, or a small Tory majority
BUT are no protection after a hard Tory win with a large enough majority to bully / ignore their moderates

It looks like the next Parliament will be stripped of the most prominant Tory rebels and many others will have quietly retired to avoid the coming stress, or even been deselcted
So the makeup of the next Tory Parliamentary Party is likely to be much more rightwing & hardline Brexity

Well, what I want to see is Boris Johnson fail and fail spectacularly. Whether he chooses to go and lie down in a ditch and wait to die is up to him. Will the ERG come for him? The Tories enjoy a bloodletting, but this one is getting a bit much.

With the Xmas-NY vacation, imo MPs working flat out could scrutinise and pass the necessary legislation by mid-January,
leaving just enough time for the EP to approve by 31 January

• the EP's Brexit committee started work yesterday and should be finished at the latest by end of November

However, JRM / BJ's current timetable is absurd & contemptuous to Parliament & people
and simply isn't possible for the EP

Just a side question, what's happening about voting on the Queen's Speech?

So the makeup of the next Tory Parliamentary Party is likely to be much more rightwing & hardline Brexity

and smaller ?

Let's talk polls:

2015 General Election - hung parliament widely anticipated (so much so that the Tory manifesto was compromised).
2016 Referendum - Remain expected to win, albeit narrowly.
2017 General Election - Tory majority of 40-100 seats widely predicted.

Now, where would you start ?

So the makeup of the next Tory Parliamentary Party is likely to be much more rightwing & hardline Brexity

We have to make sure that they are not able to form a majority. Then anno domini should do the rest, because they have zilch to offer anyone under 45.

The next GE isn't a sure thing for the Tories

• no such thing in such a chaotic situation with 4 parties and FPTP

BUT this GE will be v different to the last

2017:

. Tory Leavers mistrusted May on Brexit
. She massively pissed off typical Tory voters with the social care plan
. She is a dreadful media performer

The next GE:

. All Leavers but the most hardline No Dealers love BJ, ##
especially if the GE is February after a WA Brexit - and no downturn, because we'll be in transition
. He'll avoid any other manifesto policy that might offend any possible Tory voters
. He is a brilliant media performer wrt his target audience - he can piss off 60% of voters and still win a landslide

Farage is the best hope of preventing a Tory majority, if Brexit has not happened before the GE

Less so after Brexit.

Dontlickthetrolley I was wondering about the Queen’s speech too. I read that if it isn’t passed the PM is expected to resign

It looks like the next Parliament will be stripped of the most prominant Tory rebels and many others will have quietly retired to avoid the coming stress, or even been deselcted I think you're right. Our very moderate Tory MP is standing down. I know most of you can't imagine such a thing but he really is a lovely man. |He came and sat in my tiny rural classroom as part of a Gordon Brown World Education day. He personally wrote to me on concerns about women only spaces.

What time does the reading start? wondering if I've got a bit of time to garden in my lunch break beforehand

derxa Wash your mouth out with soap and water, didn’t you know you can’t say anything nice about a Tory, they are all with out exceptions the devil reborn

I know some lovely Tories.
I also know some utter shits.
Statistically there are more pull up the drawbridge shits in the Tories than in most other parties.

Sadly the "patrician" Tories (like Hezza and Clarke and Soames) have been driven out by the external interests rules that came in following the Sleaze era
so we now have ambitious little things who go straight from Uni into politics without ever touching the real world.

So politics - on both sides - is lurching to the extremes
which is a bad thing

Ah here is waffles again.

Whichever spin doctor (looking at you Cummings) who came up with 'Get Brexit Done' I want to murder slowly and painfully. I never want to hear it again.

I was always taught at school that "get" and "got" along with "nice" were rubbish words to use.

But then Brexit is rubbish so...

you know you can’t say anything nice about a Tory, they are all with out exceptions the devil reborn

What is Toryism but organised spivvery? … No amount of cajolery can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party … So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.

Aneurin Bevan

JustAnotherPoster00 It’s good you have an open mind 🙄