Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Tory Remainers seem far more tribal / terrified of Labour & being taxed

Definitely something that has come up in real life for me too.

They are willing to 'give Boris a chance' despite their remain views in my experience.

But Remain must stop now

Speak for yourself. That train left the station ages ago.

Even if Remaining is impossible, Leavers must be held to the fire for every second the UK is out of the EU - and that starts here. All the lies, the hollow promises, the cynical manoeuvring - it all needs to be laid bare and forensically exposed to the world in the bleaching power of daylight.

It's probably too late for the UK now. We're fucked and our kids and their kids will have to clean up - much like the cesspool we've made of the planet.

But maybe - just maybe - there's a chance that some other country can be spared the shitshow we are only just beginning out journey into.

Even imaginary countries want in ... (hope the image attaches!)

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Whether the Govt wins its Program motion tonight and keeps the WAB on course for Oct 31 may well depend on intense negotiations ongoing now between the Govt and Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Rory Stewart, I understand (1).

They want more concessions from Govt for Parliament to set the negotiating mandate for the future relationship, plus the ability for MPs to extend transition period if there is no FTA in place by Dec 31, 2020. In effect, the full Nandy/Snell package that Theresa May agreed (2).

Hammond, Gauke and Stewart don't speak for all 21 Tory rebels any more - at least half of whom have already signed up to the full bill and its timetable. But they could still be the margin of victory/defeat in a very tight vote tonight (3).

Francis Elliott
@elliotttimes
·
15m
Labour will vote against second reading and programme motion, I'm told.

Daniel Kraemer
@dcakraemer
·
11m
Amendments to the Brexit bill so far include:

• Ken Clarke et al on negotiating a customs union
• Nick Boles on extending the implementation period
• Labour on Parliamentary scrutiny of Joint Commmittee & disputes
• Lib Dems on safeguards for people applying for settled status

"My one Leave voting relative has rather unexpectedly applied for Irish citizenship. To which he is entitled."

"Fuck off out of our lives, you sociopathic bastard and never come back"
is the politest thing I could say to him

"the DUP really were utter pillocks to back Brexit"

and their voters were pillocks to choose them, knowing how corrupt and incompetent they have always been.

Some intelligent, educated Unionists voted for them, to keep out Sinn Fein, or even the moderate SDLP
If your voting is sectarian for the Stupid Party, then you should expect Stupid may really fuck you up some day

PreMovingKrazy on the correct thread

If your voting is sectarian for the Stupid Party, then you should expect Stupid may really fuck you up some day

BXP voters take note of that ^^

I think this is critical from Peter Foster (Telegraph):

It's actually worse than this, since UK must agree to extend transition in by July 1 2020.

But we only paid up Dec 31 2020, so that is going to mean new negotiation on 💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶

Now. Consider the timetable... 1/Thread

The new @EU_Commission won't start now until December.

@BorisJohnson is going to have an election.

Officials on both sides clear that trade negotiation mandates and negotiations very unlikely to start before Spring 2020. Say March 1st. /2
mentions The UK, per Withdrawal Agreement (Art 132) must notify of decision to extend the implementation period by *July 1 2020.

That's THREE months after likely start dates of negotiation.

Which means... /3
mentions That almost IMMEDIATELY the UK-EU trade talks begin, the UK is going to be plunged into a new financial negotiation.

That will be politically toxic, since, per the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK is to be treated as a fully-fledged 'third' country. What does that mean? /4
mentions That with UK not part of EU's 2020-2027 budget, and not subject usual calculation mechanisms, the EU can basically "think of a number".

It will depend if the price is right - for both sides. That's a recipe for toxic negotiation. /5

Even worse, it's quite possible it'll be MORE than the current 10bn euros net annual contribution, since the next MFF (7-year budget cycle) is bigger and the rebates will have gone.

How is that going to play so soon after an @BorisJohnson #brexit election??? /6
mentions As @hilarybennmp points out, it is for a "minister of the crown" to decide (with Joint Committee that governs WA) and agree upon an extension.

So imagine forward just a few months... /7
mentions The voters have been told they're about to be 'free' of the EU...all that lovely lolly to spend on our NHS "Yayyyyy, freeeeeeedom!"

And pretty much first thing they hear is: "er sorry, but first we need to pay the EU 10bn euros a year or more for another two years. /8
mentions Because we will.

Because even the most determinedly optimistic Brexiteer must know that a Free Trade Deal can't be done with the EU in nine months?

And yet Parliament will have no ability to mandate an extension.../9
mentions At that point, the EU will have its £39bn financial settlement in law, and its guaranteed citizens rights...but it wont want a hard crashout onto WTO terms, one presumes, any more than UK does.

But just like 2016/2017 there is NO effort at realism on money/timetables /10
mentions Remember @BorisJohnson saying EU could 'go whistle' for its money - but we paid up.

Perhaps the answer will lie in just how 'Spartan' the Tory party has become after this next election /11
mentions Each #brexit cycle the lag-time between big promises and capitulation gets smaller and smaller.

It took @theresa_may 18 months to climbdown; @BorisJohnson less than 3....

If we have a spring election, the next collision with reality could be matter of weeks. ENDS.

God we really are fucked aren't we....

BXP voters take note of that

Am I wrong in remembering that BXP is really The Nigel Farage Party ? There's no committee, and Farage owns BXP as a company, so can hire/fire candidates at will ?

Basically a vote for BXP would be a vote for whatever is the Farage Fancy du jour

You know you've fallen through the cracks on the sidewalk when The Sun has it 100% spot on.

(Yes, I know).

the Farage Fancy du jour

With his recent defence of the Benn act and today's impassioned objection to BJ's deal, he appears to be a Remoaner now.

Looks like the Kyle-Wilson amendment for a confirmatory vote will also be put - one of them (Phil Wilson?) just interviewed on BBC Newsroom.

Positive -Scottish independence for those who want this.. I don't.

That will be politically toxic, since, per the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK is to be treated as a fully-fledged 'third' country. What does that mean? /4 mentions That with UK not part of EU's 2020-2027 budget, and not subject usual calculation mechanisms, the EU can basically "think of a number"

Also, from memory, the UK signed up to pay the EUs Brexit costs which have been growing daily - thanks to the UK.

I would be totally unsurprised if they exceeded the annual contributions, given how much work - and infrastructure -France, the Netherlands and Ireland have had to invest in.

In other forums, I've noticed a couple of tropes about how the UK should have never agreed to settle the WA before trade negotiations ... which is an interesting loose cannon of blame, if it were to ever be loaded ...

I've just emailed Lisa Nandy and Jim Fitzpatrick. Time to email Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Rory the tory by the look of things.

I've just emailed Lisa Nandy and Jim Fitzpatrick. Time to email Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Rory the tory by the look of things.

Ideally it should be their constituents that contact them. Although, that said, if MPs really do owe a duty to the country, they should still heed all citizens ?

Yellow This is an ERG Brexit.
It has nothing to do with 'Remainers'.

I'm with DGR, scrutiny and blame of who led us here, and the results of their actions, has to start now.

So I'm not having any of this ridiculous 'We're all in this together. We must heal. We must share blame,' nonsense.

I've emailed Lisa Nandy and Rory the Tory - good suggestions for the others, Pretzels.

"how the UK should have never agreed to settle the WA before trade negotiations"

Legally, the EU cannot conduct future trade negotiations with an existing member

To change this would mean treaty changes, with about 38 national and regional Parliaments having to approve the changes and some members having to hold a referendum.

Never going to happen, just to help one political party in a leaving country.

DGR Thank you for your post at 11:22. My thoughts exactly.

Don't feel bad thecat about your cottage. I will move in next to you, if I may. I had to explain to DS why I am so angry and bitter about this all.

I am off to check my MP's expected vote.

PMK

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

If Govt don't agree, some v tricky amendments - such as this one tabled by @NickBoles - could force the concessions.

Makes a transition extension automatic if no FTA agreed by Dec 2020.
Boles says he already has the support of key swing Lexiteers, eg Onn, Snell and Kinnock (4)

< BUT, still nothing to prevent a Tory govt repealing this after a GE win, because it would not be in the binding WA part >

.