Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

@BlueGingerale - don't remember which bit but there is a bit which allows government to change worker's rights as long as the relevant minister comes to the HoC to tell everyone. Two things

1. They wouldn't be in a hurry to show themselves up as shitty because
2. And protection laws can be reinstated by a new and different government.

*But - won’t it be very very hard to bring in policies like this? To reduce our existing conditions?

Not in theory. But in practice.*

In practice a government with a large enough majority and good discipline (ie an effective "whipping" operation) in the House of Commons can mostly do what it likes.

You need to ask yourself what constrains government:

• oversight from the upper house (not often effective) and the courts (more effective, but governments can and do pass retrospective legislation)
• external oversight/obligations eg European court of human rights, the EU
• civil society - which can get policies overturned (see: the poll tax) but usually only after mass protest/violence and usually only in a government's dying days
• the need to face the electorate in elections. But the government is already thinking about how they can water this down by requiring photo ID (it is estimated that over 3 million people do not have photo ID)

Now ask yourself which of those would act to prevent watering down of workers' rights, once we have left the EU.

But - won’t it be very very hard to bring in policies like this? To reduce our existing conditions?

It very much depends on the Parliamentary arithmetic. Get landslides like Attlee, Thatcher and Blair did and you can more or less do what you like.

Although I find it extremely frustrating that Brexit can't just be knocked on the head by either a revoke, or a long extension which quietly kills it off, so that we get on with addressing real problems, at the same time, I think it is prompting healthy debate among the parties.

The other thing that constrains government is the markets. Which are not, tbh, bothered about your employment rights.

God I hope Johnson does not get the huge majority some polls are predicting. Not only would being able to push his dire withdrawal bill though Parliament without any checks or amendments be disastrous, but like Fluffy said, we need a grown up in charge, not a petulant toddler. He is such an embarrassment.

Also. I'm not worried about Macron.

The idea that Macron might block this extension is a very British social media creation.

Brexiters were all over this at the weekend. I've never seen them so keen on Macron. These are the same people who were sharing highly-antisemitic Macron/Rothschild memes during the French presidential election and who masturbate to gilet jaunes videos.

Macron will threaten and play bad cop because his own electorate also like strong man politics and Brexit is currently in the public eye.

As an aside: I was in the gym the day before yesterday and I looked up at the TV to see Bercow in full flow in the HoC, on peak time (6pm) French TV.

I'll be boting tactically.

Whilst holding my nose, probably.

@BlueGingerale the government have already been softening laws that provide us protection in anticipation of leaving the EU - I was reading last night about pesticides that are banned in the EU (as well as a lot of the rest of the world) but are allowed in North America. They disrupt hormones ..... they legislation is already in place to allow them here...... so no, you are not catastrophising- you are recognising the safe guards that we have because of EU membership.

Sorry - it was the guardian

www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/12/uk-accused-silently-eroding-eu-pesticide-rules-brexit-laws

And this law softening has been deliberate, not just some unintended consequence, which they will probably try to spin it as.

Our LABOUR MP voted with the government, so actually I've voted TORY BY STEALTH!

What a nightmare! This is like voting Labour last time and being told that you had voted for Brexit.

I read the Open democracy piece by Peter Oborne it is telling that he had problems finding anyone in MSM to publish it.

Peston has written a reply to it today in which he manages to completely miss the point and not answer any of the questions raised by Oborne other than attempting to excuse the publishing of one particular tweet.

It's a straight blue v red seat.

If it's also a constituency with a significant Remain vote, there is no reason to believe that it will always be straight red-blue.

Peston has written a reply to it today in which he manages to completely miss the point and not answer any of the questions raised by Oborne other than attempting to excuse the publishing of one particular tweet.

Peston is part of the problem. I've unfollowed him on twitter when it became clear that he's a reporter of political tittle tattle not a journalist.

Flouncy In your position I'd still vote Labour, if there is a chance of keeping the Tory candidate out. Presumably she doesn't vote with the government every time?

Unfortunately there's no chance of doing that in my constituency. The long standing ERG member gets more votes than all the other candidates put together.

That this WA will allow vastly lower workers rights/ food standards etc in.

But - won’t it be very very hard to bring in policies like this? To reduce our existing conditions?

You'd have hoped it would be difficult politically but that hasn't stopped the Tories before. For example they:

1. Increased the qualifying period for unfair dismissal from one year to two years. This decreased the number of people who could enforce their rights.

1. They introduced hefty tribunal fees which meant employment claims dropped by 70% (until the Courts found the fees illegal).

Doing away with the mutually consensual rights for workers and consumers rights is definitely the main driver for the ERG. It always has been.

There's all this fuss about taking back control of our laws - what other laws are they talking about? The only two other areas affected are environment and food.

There is no doubt without the influence of moderates the current lot will start a progressive removal. First they moved the bit about workers' rights from the binding WA to the non binding PD part. Then the Bill says there has to be a statement that rights aren't being removed or confirmation that it was necessary to do so.

I guess it will be justified to the public on the basis that they voted to withdraw from the EU and therefore to trade more with the US. The US companies require certain lowering of standards to facilitate investment or trade? It would be easy to see that as 'giving control' to the US but of course it won't be seen like that.

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
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32m
NEW: Ken Clarke says if the PM presents a one line bill calling for an election (remember he needs a way round that Fixed Term Parliaments Act), then MPs will amend it. For example, to reduce the age of voting to 16. Snap election might not be so easy for PM after all.

BBC Radio 4 Today
@BBCr4today
Veteran MP Ken Clarke says the PM has got some "very peculiar people" in Downing Street who "put out statements and colour everybody's reaction to events... they're obsessed with fighting this people vs hated Parliament election" #r4today

I'll be boting tactically.

That’s an interesting typo. I’m sure there will be lots of tactical boting in play

Wikipedia informs me we're in the second safest Tory seat in the UK I'll still be boting and voting Labour.

I grew up in a safe Tory seat (Skipton & Ripon). I feel that my vote is much more valuable now I live in a marginal.

I thought that a clever typo - holding by doze.......

I really would like to see Ken Clarke get that amendment through....

Morning all. I was dreaming last night that brexit was done. It was awful.

I understand your frustrations Flouncy re Laura Smith but Timpson would have voted for the government anyway. Crewe and Nantwich is most certainly ripe for the Brexit Party which will split the Tory vote. It's to be expected when you live in a leave voting area.

Once again, it is incredibly frustrating.