Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Everyone loves the EU (apart from Turks and Russians): survey

https://www.politico.eu/article/everyone-loves-the-eu-apart-from-turks-and-russians-survey/

Share of people with a positive view of the EU has significantly increased since a similar survey in 2013.
< I wonder why >

Back in the parallel dimension of reality known as the Labour Party

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Hearing that Unite tonight voted to trigger Ian Murray, the only Scottish Labour MP elected in 2015.

Also told that Ian Murray is the only Scottish Labour MP that Unite have voted to trigger.

BCF,

Optics.

Tusk said 31st jan
Macron a few days.

Few in France will bother to check the British paperwork.

The 'compromise' is the flextension ;)

Does this mean we'll stop hearing the infernal Brexit on 31st October adverts?

You are looking forward to the election campaigning instead? Which will mention 31st Oct a lot...

I like this interpretation of the Canadian election result:

@matttomic
(Explaining Canada) it's simple, the party that won the election now gets a chance to govern at the discretion of our head of state, an elderly German woman who lives in a castle on an island and has her wishes interpreted by an astronaut. Normal shit.

I'm super chuffed because I was able to vote again this time as an expat in my parents' riding and we got an NDP MP. Parents were expecting a Conservative win with the left vote split again, they're over the moon, the old hippies.

You are looking forward to the election campaigning instead? Which will mention 31st Oct a lot...

Along with all the irritating Christmas adverts ...oh joy.

So did somebody say the latest possible date for an election this year is 12th December?

Ian Murray is my MP. He’s excellent, always responds to emails, and genuinely does lots for his constituents. I know several people he’s helped personally.

I’m pleased to see that Boris will be pushing for an election if the EU grants another extension. Corbyn needs to be dragged to the polls kicking and screaming if necessary, because this deadlock cannot go on. I suspect he knows that Labour are highly likely to lose again and his days as leader will be seriously numbered - hence wanting to avoid an election at all costs. And let’s not forget, as an arch Eurosceptic the last thing he wants is to remain in the EU.

Everyone loves the EU (apart from Turks and Russians): survey

Actually, they don’t. It has a lot of faults. It is also, however, the least worst option.

Apologies if this has already been shared

Hold a referendum on whether to leave with the deal offered or remain in the EU

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/276978

I would think that, despite - some, Brexiteer - people braying at Corbyn for having refused a GE and saying that one needs to be called, these same people will then bitch about it happening so close to Christmas and interfering with their enjoyment of it!

The youth vote will also be very interesting I suspect that many such as one of my DC are still never LibDem due to student fees.

This approach is so frustrating and totally fails to appreciate the LDs' position as the minor party in a coalition. They also tempered many austerity measures and helped to increase the personal tax allowance. But, there you go!

I agree @NoWordForFluffy . LibDems have a clear position from which they can negotiate as a third party. Best they could hope for in a coalition of which they are part is to have a second referendum as part of their coalition "deal".

Yes, the anti-LibDem and Student fees issue annoys me with my DCs too. Their student days are behind them and they weren't affected. They have been especially affected by high housing costs, so IMO should let the Student fees issue go, and concentrate on the Tories housing policies. As it happens, at the last election, one had moved into a Labour constituency and voted Labour, and the other was Green, but the Green candidate stood down in favour of the LibDem, so the LibDem got the vote.

Mind you saying 'Labour it will be' - in some cases, with Labour second and a candidate who is not a Corbynista, that is a sensible vote.

The LibDems will need to be very, very careful before they go into any more Coalitions - a genuine 3 way one with Labour, SNP could work.

I'm voting either LD (I'm a member) or Labour as I'm voting tactically. I've never voted Labour in my life, but will to oust the Tory. My constituency does look like it'll go back to LD though (it's never been Labour). Our candidate seems capable and DH spoke to him when he came to our house and seemed relatively impressed with him (unusual!).

I'd quite like to answer the door to our Tory candidate but I imagine my address will be blacklisted by him! 😂😂

Plenty of people were affected by tuition fees and austerity, all made possible by the Lib Dems coalition.

Too much of an "I'm alright jack" attitude from centrists. No wonder the Lib Dems get described as yellow tories.

Plenty of people were affected by tuition fees and austerity, all made possible by the Lib Dems coalition.

I don't agree with everything that the coalition govt does (far from it in fact) but you can't enter a coalition government and not expect to compromise.

One of the most toxic aspects of FPTP is that we have little experience of coalition government, which leads to this sort of sulky teenager political reasoning (if I can't have everything I want, I don't want anything at all).

I could likewise point out that Labour initiated PFI and academies and therefore I cannot vote for them.

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
Three things to bear in mind when pondering EU #brexit extension move.

1) all extensions are “flextensions” ™️

2) delay is tiresome, but surely better than ‘no deal’

3) The French will find a way to make a fuss, but surely (see points 1 & 2) only to a point.

I could likewise point out that Labour initiated PFI and academies and therefore I cannot vote for them.

People in glass houses and all that!

Politics is so bloody tribal and this is what's got us into this mess. Compromise is key to success. Grown ups compromise and understand they can't always get what they want and vote understanding this. This country has too few grown ups and far too many petulant children.

How can Corbyn (and his advisors who presumably read / analyse social media comments) be sooooo pig headed to not step down????

If he was replaced, it sounds like Labour would gain a huge amount of votes which, surely, is the overarching objective of any party?

How can they stand back and risk losing an election when they have it within their control to stop the major thing that appears to be blocking them?

Or does my bubble miss out millions of Corbyn fans who's anger would cancel out the positive effect??

Can anyone help me?

I know what we’re all worried about. That this WA will allow vastly lower workers rights/ food standards etc in.

But - won’t it be very very hard to bring in policies like this? To reduce our existing conditions?

Not in theory. But in practice.

(My DS accuses me of catastrophising.)

Peter Foster has been one of the most reliable commentators throughout this whole affair, despite writing for a very brexity paper.

And some of the most interesting and thought provoking interventions have come from Peter Oborne, former brexiter (did anyone read his OpenDemocracy piece yesterday)?

The less tribal the commentator the more likely they are to see through the bullshit.

I don't think we need to worry about Macron. He may grumble, but he is fairly pragmatic and I think he would be seen as preventing us from holding an election.

I can't face an election at this point. Ugh.