Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Thanks. Should really have gone back and checked the wording of the Benn Bill letter myself

OK, been out and about up to now.

So could some kind soul please update me as to how we stand. I don't really trust the papers.

Pawel Swidlicki@pswidlicki

Brexiteer commentators will of course blame MPs for tonight's setback

but I think Government has been own worst enemy,
ultra aggressive and shifty tactics have meant MPs just don't trust Johnson and this is what drove Benn Act, Letwin amendment and tonight's programme motion vote

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

This. You reap what you sow...proroguation, humbug etc.

Shouldn't come as a surprise.

red Macron may be looking at the earliest available slot within which the EP can approve a deal, which I gather is about 14-15 Nov

So, 15 days if he really wants to pile on pressure and wag the French willy ?

Struggling massively to keep up at the moment & have missed whole threads but had an interesting for a given value of interest conversation with my Dad at the weekend over whether we could have ever got to this point if the West Lothian Question hadn't been dodged during the devolution process. As implementing a proper English parliament would also have implied setting up some form of proper Second/Upper house House of Lords reform and probably driven clarification of a lot of constitutional issues. And would that have meant that the GFA issues and the implications of England dragging Scotland out of the EU been better understood and controlled for

Alberto Nardelli@albertonardelli
I am told that President Macron is not happy about granting an extension to 31 Jan 2020 as recommended by Tusk

Macron going to flex his muscles with the EU again?

On another thread:
Like those thugs at Saturday's march, outside the Half Moon pub - yobs.

It does look like a GE.

Personally, I think we should push for a referendum first. But ... there we go.

One positive to look forward to: Cummings' contract runs out on 31st October and he's promised his wife for what that's worth that he'll then go for his postponed operation

So Rasputin will be out the building

A possible negative is that minus Cummings' Machiavellian influence, BJ might not be so prone to putting people's backs up and might actually start winning more votes

The EP's Brexit Committee have said the EP can't vote on approval until the UK Parliament does, which includes the HoL
AND the EP conditions that full UK Constitutional / legal requirements are completed means the EP will only vote after Royal Assent.

It does look like a GE.

All the parties do their private polls though, and gauge what sort of numbers they might get. No one wants a GE before Christmas though - we have better things to do, like shopping.

Canvassing in the cold and dark (especially in Scotland) won't be fun in the depths of winter either

Bruno Waterfield Retweeted Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز*@RymMomtaz*

A French diplo official says:
“will see at the end of the week if a purely technical extension of a few days is necessary, to finish this parliamentary procedure.

But outside these circumstances, an extension to buy time or to discuss the agreement again is excluded.”
#Brexit

I can't believe that , if there is a GE, it will be the first time in 35 years I have not voted for Labour.

katya adlerr@BBCkatyaadler*

“This will never end” said one exasperated EU politician to me tonight.

At the moment EU leaders are hoping to avoid having to coming to Brussels “just for #Brexitt^ again” as they put it /1

If EU leaders stick to 31st Jan extension requested by the PM (even if he asked through gritted teeth)
then they feel they can agree in writing rather than in person at a special summit. /2

An EU politician expressed his frustration at the thought of another #Brexitt^ summit.
“We have to dance like Pinocchio in this game that’s not ours”
an EU politician said to me, adding:
”It’s so annoying and upsetting by now” /3

Temptation amongst most I speak to tonight in EU circles is to grant the 31 Jan extension mentioned in Benn Act without much debate
A) EU doesnt want to make a song and dance about the extension
B) There’s s concern if they choose a shorter extension than the one requested.. /4

(As France would prefer) then Remainers might accuse EU of throwing UK out the door but
C) There’s also a concern if a longer extension were granted than stipulated in Benn Act then Leavers could accuse EU of trying to keep UK in against its will. /5

EU aim now: to avoid being embroiled in UK Brexit debate.

Stay as neutral as possible by going for extension requested
by Parliament and then the PM (however grudgingly he may have done so) /6

Remember the gamble here is that if Johnson hasn't delivered Brexit before an election then the Brexit Party are in play especially if his do or die promise has failed.

The theory being that the leave vote will be split if the Brexit Party stand candidates.

The flip to that is if brexit has not been delivered then the LDs are expected to do better.

And the SNP?

Well they want an election whatever but they want to stop Brexit.

So there is the SNP question here. Would they support an election / Vonc?

Matt Dathann@matt*dathan

EXCL: Jeremy Corbyn told a private meeting of Labour MPs last week:

“We just cannot afford to turn down another election request"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10192592/corbyn-labour-mps-voters-election/amp/?

And in a meeting with a group of Labour MPs last week Mr Corbyn he admitted the party would be castigated by their own supporters and votersrs if they turned down a third request.^
....
Mr Corbyn’s desperation for backing an election put him on a fresh collision course with his Shadow Chancellor John McDonnellell and fellow pro-Remain frontbenchers*^

who want Labour to force through a second referendum before giving the green light for an election.

The compromise on the Tusk and Macron positions is of course a flextension arrangement where we leave once deal is done before 31st Jan.

If we get a 31st Jan deadline of course no deal also is back in play, so there will be this desire by the EU to stress this, particularly to remain leaning politicians.

Thus an election does become the only option for anyone who really does want to stop Brexit.

(something for both the LDs and SNP to ponder carefully)

Tactical voting for the best-placed Remain candidate might be a thing.

Going to be tricky, though.

So far the SNP have been v keen for a GE
They are expected to gain seats and nearly wipe out Tory & Labour again

Once we get an extension, to rule out No Deal before a December / January GE, imo they'll probably push for a VoNC

• which just needs a simple majority

Another incentive:
they could embarass both Tories & Labour by this, who might have trouble deciding how to vote !

BUT would the Speaker allow a VoNC called by the SNP ?
I think that procedurally a VoNC can only come from Corbyn, as Leader of the Opposition ?

I'm pretty sure that once the extension is agreed the SNP will participate in a VONC and go for a GE. (Not sure they should put it forward themselves as the other opposition parties seem to have difficulty supporting anything they suggest, purely on principle ). That's pretty much what they said at their Party Conference last week.

I know they're already out canvassing and have selected their candidates ( the lovely Alyn Smith will be standing against the prat Conservative apologist Stephen Kerr, for example and has already been pounding the streets)

A little light relief:

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-laughing-matter-no-brexit-hysterical-twitter-compilation/

red In think what we've requested is the Flextension until 31 January

So a compromise would be somewhere between Macron's 15 days and that

However, granting the request as is, without compromise, seems the safest^ option for the EU, as in the Katya Adler thread above.
Just depends how hard the French willy wags

😂😂 Groundhog day with the metal files !

Giles Wilkes@Gilesyb

Spare a thought for the hundreds of Treasury interns, responsible for ensuring the Brexit coin has the right date,

wearily reaching for their metal files.
😂😂

Does this mean we'll stop hearing the infernal Brexit on 31st October adverts?