Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

ABC and Fluffy Thank you, you cheer me up.

OYBK No, I won't either. I can't. 💐💐

One thing that worries me about a GE: Labour are pushing Corbynite Lexiteers (I know, I know) into vacant seats (eg. Vauxhall) and we know the Conservative Party are going to do that too.

So I'm pretty worried about the HoC post-GE. Even if it doesn't deliver a Johnson win.

But I agree, the longer the scrutiny of the WAB takes, the better.

And I'm most definitely not a Corbyn fan but if it meant stopping Brexit, I would vote for him like a shot!

Please not a December general election.

Corbyn could dress as Santa Claus ...

I don't like Christmas anyway

We'd lose a GE at the moment, wondering.

"the precise make up of Parliament now is pretty irrelevant as far as I am concerned."

It is completely relevant to the UK constitution though
In fact, in any democratic country, every new govt starts with a fresh slate

No Parliament can bind its successors (except via an international treaty)
That includes making its successors vote for particular bills they disagree with.

That's because Parliament can change dramatically after a GE, which is what happened after the 2017 GE.

What if Labour had won, or had been able to form a minority govt with LDem & SNP support ?
Ridiculous for them to be bound by a Tory govt decision.
Ridiculous too for May or BJ to be bound by Cameron & his govt - they are 3 v different politicans

If May hadn't squandered her majority, but just continued with the same bunch of MPs, the WA would look different

• without the DUP being so powerful during her time - and any WA has a much better chance passing under a majority govt than under a minority one

Minority govts have to compromise over their policies, or they won't get them passed.

I think I would be rooting for a Labour win despite Corbyn insisting a woman is anyone who says they are.🤬 If they ran in a promise of a second referendum, who knows they might just do it. And Corbyn isn't too ineffectual in campaigning before an election. He seems more appealing then than usual.

We'd lose a GE at the moment, wondering.

We don't know that for sure though, Cat. I really believe that even people with reservations about Corbyn would vote for him if they got a second referendum.

Hope you're right, guys.

really believe that even people with reservations about Corbyn would vote for him if they got a second referendum.

I agree with this.

LDs can be traced back to an offshoot of the Tories.

To the Liberals maybe. But don't forget the big influx of the SDP, who were people from the right wing of Labour.

As for the squabbling among the Generals - there really needs to be a Parliamentary figure that people can get behind. But Labour are almost as riven as the Tories.

Here's something else to consider: a lot of the current authoritarian craziness is being helped by Trump's regime. I will be amazed if he makes it through to the next election, let alone winning it. Withdrawing from Syria really broke the camel's back and possibly the Republican party as well - it depends on how they disavow that action. I won't speculate on Trump's state of mind, but if he stood down due to health issues tomorrow, I doubt anyone would blink an eyelid.

Basically if and when we do Brexit, the hard-fought future dreamt by the ERG is not assured. There could well be a different administration in the White House as well as Parliament.

If you want the long-term, optimistic view: this is the last-gasp antics of the autocratic rich.

If the WA drags on long enough, until after 5 November, then it is too late to have a GE this year

However, unless BJ is replaced as PM

• which is v unlikely, since most ex-Tories have basically reverted to their old loyalty - then we will probably Brexit this year via the WA

The EU will almost certainly grant an extension, which would prevent No Deal

Dangers of No Deal:

• If the EU only grant 1 month extension say, to pressure MPs to approve the WA,
  then we might have an "accidental" No Deal Brexit, that only the ERG & DUP want.

• MPs pass the CU amendment - which is not binding - but BJ still flounces and withdraws the bill
  During the remaining time of the extension, he'd probably try to bring it back, as May did, threatening No Deal as the alternative.
  However, the ERG & DUP would love No Deal, so .....

Spring is too late - we'll have Brexited by then!

The stopping-Brexit ship has sailed. It's damage limitation that's needed now.

If people think voting Corbyn is worth for a second referendum, or libdem for revoke or whatever, surely that's discounting that people will still vote for many other reasons, not just Brexit?

I think I would be rooting for a Labour win despite Corbyn insisting a woman is anyone who says they are.

The trouble is, most of the parties, except The Brexit Party, have fallen for this nonsense.

The stopping Brexit ship may have already sailed, but for myself, I feel the Brexit ship itself is holed and taking on water. Maybe the Trump ship will come to rescue some survivors, maybe that's holed too.

Enough of these rather strained metaphors.

The stopping-Brexit ship has sailed. It's damage limitation that's needed now.

No - a GE is still an option. Why has everyone given up?

Corbyn needs to call Boris’s bluff and call a VonC. I don’t believe Boris would dare go no deal given the opposition to it and if he did, well, let the Tories hang themselves. There’s one chance to stop Brexit (presuming the PV amendment doesn’t get through) and Corbyn has got to take a risk and take it.

I've thought all along Brexit was more damaging than Trump. And I've prayed that Trump would come to an end before the UK Brexited.

I completely agree that Trump leaving changes things a lot.

I just feel it will change things too late for the UK.

I've thought all along Brexit was more damaging than Trump.

I agree - Trump is only for a relatively short time. Brexit is forever!

But we haven't got an extension and we'd no deal on 31st if we VoNC now.

It's not giving up. It's seeing what's happening and what's possible in the timeframe.

Well. I won't give up, wondering.

There's a chance some combination of numbers of people annoyed by WAB will take the wheels off Johnson's bus.

But ... I'm less hopeful than I was.

We really need a killer operation to shore up opposition within the HoC and give those who have qualms hope of an alternative ... I'm not sensing that happening.

But ... it might. 🤷‍♀️

ABC A Democratic POTUS would stop the US support for the far right, stop trying to wreck the EU, stop demonising Khan as the Mayor of London, return to the agreement with Iran etc
All very positive

BUT
Any US administration is "America First"
and the Democrats would also want an FTA that so benefits US Big Pharma, Big Tech and the mass industrialised agro-farming

They don't advocate workers rights etc at EU level for USA workers, so why would they protect them for ours ?
Why would they protect the NHS, when they let millions of US citizens be without basic healthcare

They would insist on no border in Ireland, but the WA has already done that

The WA was designed by the ERG to remove everything that might hinder a US FTA.

Can’t belive people calling for an election who vote labour? They’re in a dreadful place in the polls and this will only get worse when all the northern labour voters who voted leave defect to the Tory’s/Brexit party. Labour stood on a manifesto to honour result and now want another referendum?!
Millions of labour voters voted leave and will feel totally betrayed by Corbyn offering a second referendum -they’ll be wiped out. The latest polls show the people blame parliament for the current state ie remain parties and not the tories . Most tory voters would welcome a GE anytime as they’ll get a huge majority, esp if they act with thenrrxit party. Labour have basically handed it to them. This isn’t going to go away. If it comes to a. GE the tories and Brexit will campaign on a people vs parliament angle

Ok, maybe I’m misunderstanding something here, but it’s looking likely that we will get an extension until January 31st isn’t it? As soon as that happens - VonC!

We really need a killer operation to shore up opposition within the HoC and give those who have qualms hope of an alternative ... I'm not sensing that happening.

And that's the problem. There is so little appetite for stopping BoZo in Parliament. Or just not enough. The opposition could've GNU'd, but were too obstinate to do it and now the Tory rebels momentum has bloody gone so they've lost their chance.