Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

wondering

The tweeting of MPs falling into line.

It suggests a good whipping operation.

BUT

Causes for optimism:

Bits of the WA are being leaked.

And they're not good.

Some MPs will find bits hard to stomach, especially if the public/business start complaining.

So ... we can hope.

Thanks Cat. What are your thoughts on a general election - is there any chance?

wondering My predictions:

Unless the EU refuses an extension - v unlikely - we almost certainly won't be leaving on 31 October,
because of the timing & logistics of the required EP approval

However, it is likely that the WA will pass sometime in mid-late November
and it is unlikely that there are the votes for a PV

There seems no way to make a CU binding on future negotiations, or to rule out No Deal on 1 January 2021,
if the Tories win a GE

After the WA:
Either a GE has to be called for 5 or 12 December, or logistically it cannot then be before about mid-Februray.
There have to be 25 sitting days before a GE, so there is not much time left to call a GE this year

If Labour wins or we get a hung Parliament that can enable a government,
then they may be able to renegotiate a PD with a much closer future relationship, hopefully SM + a Customs arrangement

However, the more likely Tory win - with a full 5 year term - would mean they then either negotiate a very minimal FTA with the EU, or we No Deal on 1 January 2021

Either way, they would be a rightwing authoritarian govt carrying out hard right policies to emulate the USA,
so a bonfire of rights for workers, consumers, benefit claimants of every kind, NHS patients
with lower taxes for the wealthy and with the giant multinationals continuing to dodge theirs

From what Mark Sedwill has said, the latest an election can be held, if we're going to have one before Christmas, is 12 December. . That would need an election called no later than 7 November. So it's cutting everything a bit fine.

If not going the FTPA process, that would mean a VONC this week - which I don't see happening while the threat of No Deal still exists.

Don't ask me - I'm miserable today. 😁

Ask Misti because she's usually optimistic.

She'll cheer us up & give us a hope-boost.

oops, that's after Brexit, so:

then they may be able to renegotiate a PD with a much closer future relationship, hopefully SM + a Customs

Sadly, I think BigChoc's scenario is the one.

Lowering the tone (via a friend's post on FB )

I have zero optimism too. I'm just hoping we get one last Christmas in the EU. I won't give up though.

If a week is a long time in politics, then a winter is an epoch.

I don't think Johnson will get this bill passed in its current format: it's going to struggle with the same problems that May encountered - and she had the DUP onboard. I do think it might pass if it's heavily amended. There's talk about an amendment to ensure ALL of the UK leaves the CU at the same time, in effect giving us a very soft Brexit. I can see the SNP and Labour signing up to that, subject to a PV or similar.

I also don't think Johnson is anywhere close to securing the next GE. In fact, the longer he leaves it, the more opportunities he has to fuck up. There's a reason why he wants a GE next week - his best chance is the honeymoon period.

I agree, @TheABC. Which is why next spring is best. Really give him time to fuck it up.

Is it the case that each part/section of the WAB has to be voted in and approved?

Can amendments be added to each part/section if so?

Or is it just a case of MPs voting the whole thing through at once?

Parliament chose to remit this decision to a direct democratic exercise. Having done that (they could have chosen not to) the precise make up of Parliament now is pretty irrelevant as far as I am concerned.

But this was before May's election if I remember correctly. When May went to the country with her vision of a Hard Brexit, the country said no. A wiser course of action at that point would have been to take stock and start negotiating with all parties for a compromise. She was eventually hounded out by her own party, and we now have a PM elected by a handful of Tory party members, who is intent upon steamrollering the hard right vision through, even though Johnson himself probably doesn't share their vision. They look at the moment as though they will be successful. Will they come for Johnson next?

It's worth remembering that all Empires and regimes fail. In the end Communism collapsed in the Eastern Bloc, no doubt for a variety of reasons, but enough people were not prepared to keep supporting the system.

That’s a great point Red I hadnt really thought of the LDs as authoritarian in character but you make a very good point about their current tendencies. I was thinking more ERG on the conservative side and possibly Momentum on the Labour one (if Momentum MPs are a thing?) but I don’t disagree with you.

Some MPs will find bits hard to stomach, especially if the public/business start complaining.

The vast majority of "business" has been complaining since 2016 - no one is listening. There's no point in complaining. Just delivering the kicking needed when (finally) we're allowed into a ballot box.

If the WAB is granted a second reading tomorrow, it will be up for amendment by MPs if they can get a majority for anything. It then goes to the Lords, who can also send it back amended, and time is short.

In fact, the longer he leaves it, the more opportunities he has to fuck up. There's a reason why he wants a GE next week - his best chance is the honeymoon period.

And of course, with his minder Cummings out of action after his Op - who will pull Johnson's strings?

This is typical of why Remain / PV have all along punched below their political weight:

despite the marchers - the poor bloody infantry - rallying brilliantly time after time, the generals are continually squabbling over who is top dog

People’s Vote split by power struggle at crucial time for alliance

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/peoples-vote-split-by-power-struggle-at-crucial-time-for-alliance

The organisation is riven by a battle over who will have control over a remain campaign in any future referendum,
even though the case for another vote on Britain’s EU membership has not yet been won.

< all analysts estimate there are not the votes in the HoC for a PV >

What happens if the WA doesn't pass? Sorry to ask again, but I know the thread is moving quickly.

Thank you BigChoc

I just don't understand why Corbyn doesn't go for the VonC now! Other than securing a second referendum (which PPs have said is unlikely to happen), a GE is surely the only way to stop Boris/Brexit before it's too late.

Why doesn't he just go for it? It's so incredibly frustrating!

Please not a December general election. Brexit and a Johnson majority? Merry fucking Christmas!

I agree, @TheABC. Which is why next spring is best. Really give him time to fuck it up.

Spring is too late - we'll have Brexited by then!

That’s a great point Red I hadnt really thought of the LDs as authoritarian in character but you make a very good point about their current tendencies.

LDs can be traced back to an offshoot of the Tories.

Annoyingly, it's Labour that are the radicals of UK politics.

I don't mind socialism. I don't mind one-nations small-c conservatism. Or all shades in between. But there's nothing there for me now, really . Maybe I'll die a political spinster ...

Still, clouds, silver linings etc ...

seems Northern Ireland is moving closer to a Union with England Wales and Scotland. Should please the DUP no end.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449

Please not a December general election. Brexit and a Johnson majority? Merry fucking Christmas!

But no one knows for sure that there will be a Johnson majority. In fact, if Labour were to run on a second referendum ticket I think they'd have a very good chance of winning! And anyway, what's the alternative - do nothing, sit back and let this awful deal pass? Corbyn needs to go for it before it's too late.