Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Under the Benn bill, an extension to 31 Jan would be accepted automatically

However, any other date set by the EU would have to be voted on by MPs - and it's not certain they'd vote for a 6 or 9 months extension, which would so obviously be to allow a PV

We knew Bercow was standing down, but this nevertheless causes a pang:

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

John Bercow is now formally without a Commons seat to contest at the next election. 

Greg Smith@gregsmithuk

Delighted and humbled to have been selected as the Conservative Candidate for Buckingham today.

Looking forward to getting the campaign started.
Commiserations to my fellow candidates @BenEveritt @hellojjackson and Rob Butler - all of whom are first rate @Conservatives

I am sure if he was minded to do so Bercow could find a seat to contest.

Hadn't he said that it he would be retiring from Politics at the next election anyway BigChoc ?

....possible future contestant for Strictly? would surely be miles better than Widdecombe

There is consent in the NI "frontstop" - it's just that the DUP & their supporters are infuriated by not having a veto,
because Nationalists would have to veto as well

Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

DUP say no to attaching a customs union to Boris Johnson’s brexit deal then supporting the package -
@KayBurley@ Breakfast

• Some suggest they are more concerned with the “consent” issue, and the democratic checks on new arrangement, which is causing them heat in NI

Yep, Pretty That's what I meant: we already knew he was retiring; it's just that this announcement makes it final

Surely supporting a CU amendment would be the best way for the DUP to see off this deal which they despise?

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Remember: when Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) is published today, the government wanted it to go through on nod on back of Saturday's vote

Also remember: government could have published draft WAB at any point in last year for comment/consultation, but chose to hide it instead

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHA! Oh my

Annabel Mullin @AnnabelMullin
⁦^@PopulusPolls “crucial misunderstanding among voters, assume ‘deal’ covers terms leaving EU & details trading relationship”. When focus groups r told #Brexit triggers longer phase of talks & trade negotiations, response is often “horrified silence”^

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/316b2a42-f354-11e9-afe0-18e11653b68e
Boris Johnson’s Brexit problems are just beginning
Without a second referendum those on both sides will claim the prime minister’s deal was forced through without consent

But everyone knew what they were voting for....

Raphael Hogarth @Raphael_Hogarth
Seven flashpoints in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill:
🔥 Timetabling
🔥 2nd ref
🔥 Customs union
🔥 Conditions for paying divorce bill
🔥 EU law and ECJ
🔥 Ministerial powers to change the law
🔥 Who decides what happens at the end of transition?

Read more:

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/seven-flashpoints-withdrawal-agreement-bill
Seven flashpoints in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill

So just about all the important stuff then...

Also remember: government could have published draft WAB at any point in last year for comment/consultation, but chose to hide it instead

And there must be a reason for this something they are hiding in the small print they didn’t want looking at closely?

Isn’t the problem that Parliament can add anything it likes by way of an amendment get it through, if/when QS fails we go to a GE if he gets in again he can just cancel the amendment and go to the WA he agreed?

It’s just a mess.

Hope this makes some of you chuckle

FFS, just revoke.

Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov
The Brexit Secretary confirms the government will publish the Withdrawal Bill later today.

Hurrah. This is going to be fun to see the reaction.

Don’t think Francois will make it to the end of the week.

He will spontaneously combust with rage on the floor of the Commons by Wednesday afternoon.....

Here is a rather optimistic Norman Smith from the BBC suggesting the WAB is going to be a lengthy detailed document.

Given previous experience, I would suggest its probably not going to be the document it should be...

norman smith @BBCNormanS
Govt confirm their Brexit bill will be published later today. First chance for MPs to get a look at it. #warandpeace

It doesn't kick off until 2:30 today.

The WA text is about 500 pages, written by the EU legal beagles under great time pressure, then translated into the 24 official EU languages

The WAB is drafted by the govt in (their version of) English only and is much much shorter
but this is the one most likely to have howlers

re approval:

The WA was written by EU drafters on the basis of continual consultations with all EU members
Hence why all heads of govt can approve it and the EP is expected to by a large majority

The WAB has been a deep dark govt secret
Because knowledge is power and we don't do consulting & consensus in UK politics
Problem is that many MPs may object when the Great Reveal happens

Everyone in our house has had a personalised letter from BJ today with a survey on the NHS. I’ve told everyone not to reply as I reckon it’s a data harvesting exercise. Though I am tempted to cut off anything identifying and send it back with a great big ‘REVOKE’ scrawled across it. But only if it will cost the Tory party money for postage.

Looking forward to the spelling, grammar and syntax errors.
One of my favourite pastimes is spotting mistakes (generally involving apostrophes) in special offer's (sic) and so on in retail establishments, and pointing them out in aggrieved tones to customer services.
If they don't seem bothered, I complain about that via the website.
The best was a run in with Boots over a misspelling of confectionery (confectionary - which is a word, but not the one they needed) in which the offending word was misspelled once again in their response, with a couple of other errors thrown in for extra value.

crucial misunderstanding among voters, assume ‘deal’ covers terms leaving EU & details trading relationship”. When focus groups r told #Brexit triggers longer phase of talks & trade negotiations, response is often “horrified silence”

It was mentioned years ago on these threads that maybe - just maybe - the apparent "support" for no deal was coming from a bunch of people who misunderstood the question thinking "deal" was everything done and dusted, and we can all go back to Strictly Baking on Love Island, or somesuch.

But, oh, no, that was shockingly elitist and of course everybody knew what no deal meant.

Moron-traps have been around for years, we really should be deploying them. (Although it's interesting the YouGov surveys that don't. I wonder who is paying for them ?)

One of my favourite pastimes is spotting mistakes (generally involving apostrophes) in special offer's (sic) and so on in retail establishments, and pointing them out in aggrieved tones to customer services.

Lifes too short

However my "incredible trick" is to beat anyone - manager, director, lawyer, accountant, boss, client, or supplier - over the head with any mistake I do find in a document, and follow it up with the fatal blow:

So what else is wrong ?

I had a Barclays Bank manager review 6 years worth of statements because they made a pretty fundamental cock up on one when I managed DFs business.

Once you find one mistake, they can never promise you there aren't any more. Which is kind of critical in financial services.

As mentioned previously, I have an natural advantage, since there are a few companies that simply can't handle my name. So I can start with that mistake, and the world is my lobster. And woe betide the person who tries to tell me that it's "the system can't handle it", as I will then want to know - in writing - what else the system can't handle.

If you can't enjoy getting old, it's probably not for you

That said I'm pretty relaxed about informal online stuff. It's hardly important, and spell checkers and tiny keyboards don't lend themselves to precision prose.

Helene von Bismarck @HeleneBismarck
Timetable claxon: decision expected at 2.30 pm on whether or not the government‘s attempt to re-table MV on the deal today will be allowed

Ooooo A Bercow Moment.

Thanks Red. Lets see what Speaker Bercow decides this afternoon then.