Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Has this already been posted?

From the UCL Constitution Unit:

@ConUnit_UCL

Just to be clear:

As the Supreme Court reminded us, parliament is our sovereign body; government is accountable to parliament

On Saturday the Commons voted to "withhold approval" for the deal "unless & until implementing legislation is passed"

By tabling the deal again...

...the government is repeating the question & asking MPs to reverse that position

This seems designed to pick a fight with Speaker Bercow & stoke a "people versus parliament" narrative. By convention he doesn't put the same question twice, & MPs would likely hold their line

The bill's second reading provides a chance for in-principle approval of the deal, & that's now expected tomorrow.

So why not wait? If this is really about stoking public anger against parliament that's disreputable, damaging and disrespectful of our constitutional rules.

With each passing day, with each passing hour, a unicorn dies.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7592051/Shortage-pickers-leaves-50-million-apples-rotting-UK-orchards.html

Shortage of fruit pickers leaves 50 million apples rotting in UK orchards amid fears Brussels sprouts, cabbages and kale could also be affected

A third of growers say they have been forced to leave 100 tons of fruit unpicked

This is because of a labour shortfall in part fuelled by current Brexit uncertainty

The shortage of pickers and packers is also hitting vegetable growers head of the Christmas period

.

My mum's bête noire was "less" versus "fewer".

Every time she went through the Less than 10 items M&S checkout she would complain ....they did eventually change it to Fewer than 10 items I'm sure it wasn't just down to her

Mine is "its" - unfortunately I don't always spot that damned autocarrot has wrongly decided that it should be "it's"

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Huge problems storing up for the govt this week:

Plan is to bring MV back tomorrow < today >

Think almost certain not to happen as Speaker will rule out of order as
(i) same issue twice
(ii) contradicts Letwin amendment which says Brexit related legislation must be agreed first.

There is a common misconception that the govt pulled the vote on Saturday. They did not
They just didn't bring the motion as amended to a division.
It went through on the nod.
The House decided something. I.e. Letwin, that there is no deal until WAB passes.

That is big.
That is why common refrain that Saturday was a "waste of time" or that "they didn't decide anything" is a nonsense.

As a result of that decision, the Speaker has even more justification to refuse the deal coming back.

The previous MVs were defeated and the House passed nothing.
Yesterday the Commons (when govt walked away from motion) effectively unanimously agreed and 'resolved' the matter.

So that means only route to get the deal through is via the WAB.
That is due to take place Tuesday.
And that is absolutely fraught with danger.

The parliamentary manoeuvres we saw on Saturday will look like a walk in the park compared to the WAB.

It will be amended in every direction.
This is why govt wanted to have MV first (same as May's).
Establish you have a majority on the deal and hope momentum of that means that coalition of MPs holds throughout the WAB process.

There will be lots of attention paid to the sexiest amendment: a second referendum.
But that (prob) still doesn't have enough support.
The explosive one is a customs union which probably does and crucially has support from Lab MPs who might back deal but would prefer a CU.

Expect Labour and others to get behind that amendment because it is in effect a massive wrecking amendment to the government's deal.
They know Johnson cannot accept it, cannot negotiate it and it would tear the Tory Party apart.

If that happens (and it passes) I don't see any way out for Johnson,
other than accepting the reality of the extension and using it to insist on an election where he campaigns for his deal.
Tory Party as the Brexit (with a deal) Party.

Basically the govt gave up its best chance of accessing the majority that might well now exist for the deal by not pushing the division on Saturday.
Virtually everyone I speak to thinks it was a mistake that they didn't.

DUP votes now in play also means everything (in terms of amendments) even more fluid.
As one MP put it to me:
"If it was a matrix of options before it’s now galaxy of variables post Letwin."

Other problems abound.
There's no guarantee, for example, that the govt even has the votes for a programme motion which would set out when, how and for how long the WAB would be debated.
IE they might not even be able to bring the WAB up, or at least, to do so without condition.

Entirely possible MPs try and push programme motion for WAB beyond this week, so we can't Brexit by October 31st and def enter extension.
So keep eye out for programme motion vote, which is usually a formality but actually a big moment this week.
Possibly the biggest.

AND there's the Queen's Speech.
Remember that?
We were supposed to conclude the votes on it on Monday and Tuesday.
But that is all up in the air tomorrow.
A vote seems to be planned on Tuesday. Entirely possible govt could lose. First time on a QS since Stanley Baldwin in 1924.
Normally a govt/PM would resign if that happened.
It was traditionally a confidence vote.
Thanks to the FTPA it no longer is.

But big pressure on Corbyn to table a vote of no confidence if govt does lose.
If not then, when?

Seems to me this week (alongside EU's response on duration of extension) will determine if we have an election this year.
If it's extension to January and becomes clear govt can't get deal through, election on 5th/12 December most likely.

So erm yeah, hold onto your hats (if you haven’t lost them already). big week.

Just to clarify something: I essentially think we’ve given far too much emphasis to
a) the MV and now
b) second reading of WAB.

Both of those votes could have majorities.
But they’re essentially theoretical majorities.
They could fall apart when it comes to the amendments on WAB.
Because the coalitions for those majorities, potentially stretching all the way from Bill Cash to potentially someone like Gloria de Piero, are highly unstable.

Written more fully about all of this (and why an election, for the first time might truly stand a chance of resolving things, here:

Brexit: It is very unlikely that the PM will get his way today - here's why

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-a-delay-could-get-boris-johnson-the-election-he-craves-11840965
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-a-delay-could-get-boris-johnson-the-election-he-craves-11840965

Me too, pretty I also wince over lose / loose, bear / bare, could of, would of etc
Maybe part of being an Aspie

So Government presenting WA for definate today. I am so confused now. Is that the one Berkow can decide whether to allow it or not? Sorry but I am lost at the moment.

Talks still carrying on with DUP.

Me too, pretty I also wince over lose / loose, bear / bare, could of, would of etc Maybe part of being an Aspie

The things is, if you claim to speak English, you have to accept that usage - however wrong, irritating, or contradictory - is the final arbiter.

Unless you want to spunk a vast amount on an English Academy that will simply be ignored and ridiculed in equal measure.

Attempting to control language is generally the preserve of the despot, as Welsh and Gaelic speakers might know. It's also one tendency that crops up in racists ... SPEAK ENGLISH they will say, as a means to assert their primacy.

Anyway, as I've suggested upthread, it's harder to be judgemental of language and not an idiot in the days of autocorrect, spellcheckers, and tiny keyboards.

Also, "textspeak" goes back centuries.

Shortage of fruit pickers leaves 50 million apples rotting in UK orchards.

Surely there will be a rush of 'leavers' volunteering to do this work for minimum wage or less, like the so called immigrants get.
All pulling together and all that!

A question .....
If by some fluke the Bozo WA passes this week
and thus 31st December becomes the date on which mainland UK will leave the Customs Union .....

How quickly will businesses like Nissan announce that they are moving production to other countries ?
and thus confirm massive job losses in the next 14 months?
How many job losses in how many days would it take for people to realise that Brexit is not the Millenium Bug?

Could the worm turn before October 31st at 11pm ?

31st December 2020 I meant !!

DG I wince quietly of course - I'd no more criticise someone else's grammar or spelling than I would their weight
I've habits that would irritate the hell out of many people, e.g. echolalia, fidgeting

Environmental consequences of this WA, because EU environmental regs in May's WA removed:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GreenerUK_/status/1185210817500909568

I'm sure this has been asked before (and/or may be a v. stupid question) but if all BJ's plans and tricks are thwarted could he unilaterally crash us out by ignoring any extension offered by the EU? If he could, how would that pan out?

The Benn Act doesn’t allow him to ignore any extension granted by the EU.

How many job losses in how many days would it take for people to realise that Brexit is not the Millenium Bug?

Even if every investor in the UK pulled out, and millions were made unemployed, most Brexiteers would refuse to believe it was because of Brexit. It'd be the weather. The moon. The illuminati.

It's a cult remember. And cults can easily - too easily - persuade their members to suicide. Look at Jonestown. And Waco.

Cults ? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Masada is fascinating reading (and something Boris will know ...)

born The Benn Act means that if the EU grant the proposed 31 January extension, then it must automatically be accepted.

However, if the EU offer an extension of different length - and / or with conditions attached - then the govt must move a motion within 2 days for the HoC to vote on whether to accept it

I am a SPaG despot by virtue of teaching Functional Skills (Eng and Maths) to apprentices. As employers are forever moaning about the poor state of such skills in school/college leavers, I feel they should be pulled up on their own mistakes and accept it with good grace (they often don't).
Worst example ever (I paraphrase): Try our delicious Chardonnay's and Shiraz's (M&S, admittedly some years ago).

Thanks for the explanations. I should have known! I think it was Gove and Yellowhammer that got my spidey senses (that I never knew existed before I joined Mumsnet) tingling.

As employers are forever moaning about the poor state of such skills in school/college leavers

Yeah, well not so bothered they'd pay a bit more tax for a better education system though, are they ?

Some of them get pretty funny about letting learners off work so as to study for the exams. They begrudge four days. Four days! It's amazing so many pass.

BigChoc - I'm not I don't think aspie but I wince at all those things - the product of being brought up by a very good English teacher for a mother

Work colleagues always knew when I came across an errant "it's" in documents as I would let out a strangled "Aaaargh"

DGR - I accept that language changes and evolves. For that reason, I now accept (and now use myself in this way) that "hopefully", for example, has changed its meaning (in the same way that "awful" changed a long time ago )

But I will not accept the West of Scotland-ism amongst a certain cohort of "I seen", "I done" or "I have went" (and poor ds was never allowed to say them ). There are certain standards that need to be maintained

Ned Simons @nedsimons HuffPost Political Editor is reporting Lisa Nandy has said she will 'almost certainly' vote with the government on the next reading of the bill.

Remember: The WA has not been published - so her support is 'sight unseen' (or 'buying a pig in a poke' as I often say).

She was front runner to take over from Corbyn (a remark I shall leave without comment).

So the Scottish Court has continued the case, to a date to be determined as appropriate.

As Joanna Cherry suggested this morning