Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

I don't understand what you're not understanding Listening. The page clearly states they will immediately legislate for a referendum. They will negotiate a 'soft brexit' deal with the EU within 3 months, then put it to a referendum within 6 months. They have previously said they will then campaign to remain - I suppose it gives JC the chance to um and ah a bit about that but the decision will be with the people and, going by all the polls will be remain.

pmk

The Libdems policy is not that clear actually - plenty of people seem to think they just want to 'cancel brexit' with no further input from voters where the page you have posted says they want voters to have the final say.

The EU are going full speed to get their side of the WA approval done

Verhofstadt's EP Brexit committee will analyse the WA from tomorrow, then the EP would vote on Thursday

Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels

European ambassadors met for all of 15 minutes this morning and did not discuss a new Brexit delay

It is full on ratification on the EU side,
mirroring the government’s push to get the deal across the line

Tusk has said his consultations will take a “few days”

what that means - the EU will wait and see how the Commons vote on Tues before any decisions on extension
......
Meanwhile:
the deal goes to the European Parliament on Monday morning so that the MEPs can take a decision on Thurs
Verhofstadt’s Brexit committee will meet tomorrow afternoon

On extension:

If the Commons procedures are positive but lengthy,
to get it done the EU can agree a shorter technical extension

This can be done via a written procedure but still needing unanimous agreement of all EU27

A longer political extension such as the delay until Feb 2020 in the Benn Act will need another summit

• as early as 27/28 October if the wheels come off in the Commons

The main political question would be the conditions set for Britain as the terms of another long extension

late PMK - I was also on the march yesterday and had pretty much the same marching experience as Pretzels, as we too slid into the front of things at Green Park and then spent the whole march wondering whether it wasn't that big. And then we went home when it rained/

@Icantreachthepretzels We must have been marching really close to you as I also saw that BJ alphabet banner. But we had a much less eventful journey home, and I'm really sorry that you got so much hassle. And misogyny.

But so much of this whole mess comes out of fear and men like that are afraid of losing their place in the world; some of that is the fault of the global economy and some of that is because they can no longer automatically see themselves as being superior to women. The interlinking of this entire cock up and woman-hating isn't at all surprising, but it's intensely depressing. And I can't see any way of tackling it.

Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels

The most likely option, I am told is for EU to decide the Benn act’s three months extension is “technical”
as long as early WAB votes go smoothly

Listening I thought Lib Dem's policy was to revoke if they won a majority not give people a chance to choose, the text in that link is confusing as it doesn't mention this at all.

So did I, @Violetparis. That's odd, have they changed their mind?

European Policy Centre, Brussels (think tank, usually close to EU Commission thinking)

https://www.epc.eu/pubdetails.php?catt_id=4&pub_id=9369

Many pro-Europeans in the UK will be outraged by such a move.

But by now, overwhelmingly, EU27 leaders are looking for a way to get Brexit done in an orderly manner,
rather than hoping the decision will be reversed.

This will not dampen the political turmoil in the UK,
but to some extent, it does isolate the EU27 from whatever is to come.

Listening - I think Brexit has changed mindsets in NI quite significantly and possibly permanently. Before Brexit, almost zero Protestants or those from such a background would have considered reunification. Now a small minority would and others are starting to think about what was unthinkable. The UK has looked like a basket case, while the Republic has changed beyond recognition - modern, outward-looking, wealthy, professional and dignified throughout Brexit.

There’s the start of a recognition that partition has been a disaster for NI and that it is left behind while the rest of the world has moved on. Unionist families bring up their kids who then go to university in England and never return. Would it be so bad if the kids went to university in Dublin or Cork and came back for the odd weekend?

The problem with the Labour Brexit policy is that it isn't condensable into a few simple words for a slogan.

Compare: "Get Brexit done." "Bollocks to Brexit." "Renegotiate, referendum, remain." Three words that require a lot of footnotes.

I suspect that'll go down poorly. Leavers will ask why they should support a party that will eventually campaign against Brexit, Remainers will ask why they should support a party that is willing to do Brexit, and everyone will ask why they should vote for prolonging this shit show.

I know it's giving everyone something of what they want, but it gives no one everything and thus alienates everyone!

*go down poorly on the doorstep in a GE

Well I'm going to vote tactically, so LD or Labour, depending on what's best for ousting the Tory.

I hadn't realised I was arguing - logical or not. Still, I am a bear of little brain.

Oh, speaking of which, Boris poll on his own Facebook page (snapshot posted earlier) appears to have gang agley. Although he will have a thumbs up from me for keeping it running and not pulling it (if he subsequently does, then it's a revised thumbs down ...)

You can vote here (or you could at time of press ...)

"The problem with the Labour Brexit policy is that" is that the country is polarised into Remain and Leave,
but they are still trying not to abandon Labour Leavers, while being a mainly Remain party

Under a skilful leader like say Harold Wilson, that could have worked
Under Corbyn, it just angered those on both sides who have strong views on Btrexit

DGR I don't think that's an official page.

After the EU Referendum, Boris Johson showed he is the right man to lead our country. This page is to show support to him as Prime Minister

and yes, both Leave & Trump have shown that any campaign needs only a 3 or 4 -word slogan,
then just concentrate on whipping up paranoia and contempt for the other side.

I think reducing Brexit policy to simple slogans is part of the problem. It's so much more complicated than 3 words whatever your position on it is.

Oh I agree with you BCF, Labour is trying to bring both sides along, but neither side is in the mood for compromise and so they fall down the big crack in the middle ground.

Whoever the source is of that Facebook poll I see it also refers to the "law" in the bit above Yes, it's "pick and choose which laws you deem to be real" time , folks!! What wankers!

The only ones prolonging this shit show are, in no particular order:

ERG
Brexit Party
Tory lick arses.

The other members of Parliament are ensuring that the fan is not turned on when the shit is thrown.

Voters should be allowed to to vote on how we actually leave the UK, which, as it happens, turns out to be complicated.

I'm patient, I'm not fed up, I don't want it over and done with. I want to know exactly what this deal means to me.

EU obviously and not the UK.

I'm one of the small number who want a compromise !

I don't think you are a small number Violet A new referendum cannot be In/Out.

Well, Keir Starmer has confirmed Labour will be seeming an amendment for a PV.

Numbers will be very tight.