Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Seeking

I guess we'll see how angry the DUP are ...

I'm not sure the numbers are there for a PV. Not enough Tory rebels support, I don't think.

Time to email Tories in Remain constituencies ...

We'll also see how rebellious the 'rebel' tories are......

But a people's vote on this current deal. Which is quite different.

It's not subtle.

Are 'rebel' Tories more likely to suppost a Customs Union amendment than a PV one ?

That should have said support.

Must admit, I'm a little weary. 😁

There's a Conservative in a Remain constituency a few miles up the road and I do seem to have spent a fair bit of time stomping around his constituency and giving out 'email your MP' flyers there. 🤷‍♀️

But, you know, people did email him, and he has had one rebellion.

So, on we go, our oats beating time, against the current, towards the dim lights on the distant shore ...

Who knows, Violet? A CU might well be enough to get more Labour MPs on board and the DUP back in the gold, but risks pissing off the ERG.

But perhaps the ERG realise now this is their last chance & a CU in the WA isn't a biggie ...

🤷‍♀️

I want a compromise, and some grown ups. I don't think I'm alone.

I don't mind if the ERG are pissed off. They've pissed everyone else off enough. If it hadn't been for that arrogant shower of shits May's deal would have passed long ago. Can't believe Boris's deal which is so much worse is likely to get through.

I think if you want a compromise, you'd need to go all the way back to the beginning of Brexit, and have a different government in charge.

But then, it wouldn't have happened.

Brexit was a far-right project, pushed by a hard-right within the Conservative Party & a shady group outside the UK.

Brexit has also enabled the take-over of the Conservative Party, which further determines how all this falls out.

A 'compromise' was never going to happen.

Love Labour I do, but I think their talk of 'listening to both sides' actually camouflaged what was, in fact, a Trojan horse for a far right counter-revolution.

Rather obviously, Brexit - as carried out by these people - was never going to be a compromise.

You know, one of the oddest things about all of this is the fact that so many people still fail to see Brexit for what it is.

And I do think Labour enabled that.

I'm with you squid4, I think the media especially social media highlights the loudest voices on either side. I voted Remain but because I think a soft brexit is best for the country at this point in time I'm now a hard Brexiteer according to some on social media. I've learned to ignore it though as in the past few weeks I am finding that more people in real life think like me.

I mean, we talk endlessly on these threads about the overlap between authoritarian mindsets and voting Leave. We talk endlessly about how strange it is that 'nationalists' are prepared to hive off a huge section of the UK in order to 'take back control. We are constantly quite amazed/sad by the willingness to destroy living standards, health and wealth for a nebulous 'something'.

And yet, in theory, it's all about tariffs, and trade, and compliance, and the origin point of legislation?

No. It's a shockingly successful right-wing counter-revolution.

We can see it now.

And, no, I don't think a 'compromise' is possible because, for the originators, it was never about single markets and customs unions.

Re Labour Policy
Could somebody explain to me why the EU would waste time and resources negotiating a fresh deal with a government whose policy is to then campaign against the work they have just done?

The EU will hand labour the TM deal
which Labour have already rejected

so do Labour want to leave or remain ?

I think that's where Labour went wrong.

I think the leadership did believe in a compromise - a soft Brexit.

But it was daft. Because everything that has happened over the last three years has shown us this isn't about trade.

So, I think Labour fell for it, really. And ended up colluding.

Listening

First of all, Labour's position pre- post- GE is wholly academic.

I think we all know we're in the endgame now.

But, for nostalgia's sake:

I think Labour wanted a 'compromise' - and to restore democracy in a process that has been characterised by shocking democratic deficit (even as people yell about 'the will of the people').

They proposed renegotiating a different WA and PD, then letting people vote on it.

Labour -as a Party - would be neutral. With MPs free to campaign as they wished.

I

I agree with what you're saying catfromjapan, but we are where we are, and I don't think you can just ignore half(ish) the country.

I didn't know enough about the EU to have a strong opinion on it pre-2016. I did some research for the referendum, and I couldn't see any advantage to leaving, so I voted remain. Think that's probably fairly typical.

I had several left wing friends who wanted to vote Leave, and have been EU sceptics for a very long time, though most of them voted remain in the end, as they were anxious about it being a tory project as you say.

I just don't agree that most people have as strong an opinion on the EU as what the media is saying. But I do think the issue of "not being listened to" is really important.

Listening - But there's more important things than brexit. It would be good to keep voters who voted remain and voters who voted leave, because they both have all sorts of much more important things in common, like the need to not lose the planet to climate change, or have a functioning NHS, or the fact our homeless population has quadrupled.

but with the hatred the right wing press has whipped up I don't know if it's possible to have grown up conversations about this any more. It's all about sides and winning.

Over one million people who marched in London yesterday are far from weary.

Although I have to add that reports about the crowded train back to the North West did dishearten.

squid
Brexit is indeed an utter distraction created by the right to
stoke dissent and hatred of "other"
and take the focus off the real pain being caused by austerity
and government sanctioned tax avoidance

If the basic rate of tax went back up to what it was under Margaret Thatcher, the NHS and schools would be fully funded
BUT
Until Brexit is resolved, the tax take is on a cliff edge
so all other policies are in limbo
if Bozo's deal is signed off, Nissan will be out of Sunderland well before the end of transition

Another one who would be happy with a compromise.

ViolaWell, in that case, you're going to have to hope this WA gets voted out, we go to a GE, the samizdat tactical voting operation triumphs against the odds, Labour get elected with enough seats to put their plan into action, and then decide if their model of Brexit is enough of a compromise, and vote that way, not Remain.

Sadly, I'm not optimistic about that sequence of events.

Obviously, I will work my socks off to try and make it come about .

But ...