Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

DG We've been through this argument before It's not about the leaders of Leave; it's about the Leave voters

So what ? Fuck the remain voters then ? I'm expected to wave my little Union Jack as Leavers roll about in their ill-gotten gains ?

There is real pressure building to have a PV and stop Brexit.
Not from this part of the country.
it's clear that we are very, very close to a PV.
Which may well go 52:48 Leave again ....
then what ?

Listening, about 25-30% of the UK are entrenched in Brexit, and claim not to believe 'Project Fear'.

Less than 50% of the UK now support Leave, & around 50% of those Leavers support leaving with No Deal.

Those numbers are dwindling. They're a minority.

We really should not be ducking up the UK for a minority interest group just because we think we're tired.

DGR
I'm expected to wave my little Union Jack as Leavers roll about in their ill-gotten gains ?
They won't for long.

The lesson of the Grand Banks fishery is important here.
Nobody believed the warnings till it was too late.
Now the fishery is closed for ever.
But many others have been saved because of that error.

If he gets his version of May's WA through, he probably gets to evade prosecution

How will that work, out of interest?

And Brexit is already hurting.

I've had people telling me about medicine they are finding hard to access, children telling me about the rise in hatred towards their ethnic group they've experienced, old people tell me they are worried about having to apply for settled status.

Those people are radicalised now.

They don't go on marches, they're not noisy - but they are radicalised in a way they weren't before.

So ... swings and roundabouts.

For every middle-aged cafe-owner who goes on about Project Fear, there's a quietly angry 60 year old woman who has had to swap her HRT medication. 🤷‍♀️

thecatfromjapan
Less than 50% of the UK now support Leave, & around 50% of those Leavers support leaving with No Deal.
Sampling error is around 5%
Show me a poll with a margin greater than sampling error
And show me the question that was asked to get it.

Go sit in the cafe at your nearest Asda and see if you can feel support for Remain.

Arse

God knows.

It just seems to have been the case so far, though.

Having said that, I do think that - this time - Johnson has done something so specific, and so traceable, that he may actually get prosecuted.

thecatfromjapan

Thank you. But I am just one voice.

Looking at this site
whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
There is no trend at all
There are very narrow margins
There is great risk and little reward from a second vote any time soon

'Go sit in the cafe at your nearest Asda and see if you can feel support for Remain.'

I don't understand that, to be honest.

Will a bus do?

I sat on a bus a fortnight ago that exploded into a conversation about how awful Johnson & Brexit are.

People are angry. We may not get given the same coverage as red people who want to bring back gallons - but we're just as angry.

And there are more of us now.

Listening

Don't get me wrong, I said two years ago that BINO would be preferable (thinking that Revoke wasn't an option) as a least-worst scenario.

But BINO would have to be worked out in the PD (assuming a WA gets passed by Parliament) and the thought of Johnson being in charge of the PD negotiations is awful.

You could say he hasn't got a majority and any moves towards a harder form of Brexit wouldn't pass, but then we're back where we've been for the past 3 years, with Parliament saying what it doesn't want, but unable to crystalise what it does want.

Would this be resolved by a PV between the WA and remain? I can't see where the positive (i.e. Parliamentary) support for that would come from. I suppose if you say the WA means we leave (as a sop to Leavers), the more reasonable types might accept it, but the ERG? They are desperate to avoid the ATAD and AMLD and want to cosy up with the US (bonfire of regulations), so I can't see how they'd go for the WA (and transition period) as it stands.

Talk about counting your chickens. The DUP have come out against the proposal for NI to be in both customs unions. Italian source, quoting Nigel Dodds directly.

www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/10/12/news/dup_s_nigel_dodds_rejects_double_customs_brexit_solution_it_cannot_work_-238366257/

There’s no question that passing the WA now votes Boris into a much stronger situation than he is now. It’s effectively a vote for a Boris government.

If his WA doesn’t get through, he will be wrestled from the wheel before he goes No Deal.

Will a bus do?

Or a mini cab? Cab drivers are noticeably anti-Brexit these days.

thecat
The demographics of an Asda cafe are the sort of people who caused the upset in 2016.

Cat - yes, it's very different this time. The details of the Arcuri case, and her attempts to 'help' him, look so massively suspect that I don't see how he can dodge it.

Personally I'm of the view that the majority of people don't give a fuck. If we eventually Revoke, most of those who voted Leave will be annoyed and feel like they've been screwed over by the elite again, which they were, just they're blaming the wrong elite. But they're not going to do anything about it other than politically disengage (i.e. "what's the point?") or moan about it down the pub. Then they'll die. They're not young revolutionaries!

MShip and A : I agree with you both.

"The WA is a hostage to and a prize for the Far Right."

Wrong.
No Deal is
That's why Farage & the Brexshitters keep demanding it

"we can't offer No Deal because people might vote for it"

Um, that's democracy
Why allow the current hard right Tory party to stand - people are quite likely to vote for them too

thecat I don't support a WA because I'm "tired" but because the WA stops No Deal^
It can't be over-turned by the next Tory govt, even if they win 500 seats

It gives a backstop which saves NI from the Troubles re-igniting
May's WA would also have ensured a "level playing field" so no US FTA - lt's see if the new one does too, if there is a new one

The UK has long exhausted the EU's patience and if it wasn't for Ireland, we wouldn't have had even the extension to 31 Oct.
They no longer want the UK psychodrama poisoning the EU - the UK is too damn big to stay when it's a roadblock to further integration and maybe a wrecker of current business.

Anyway, how do you see a PV happening before a GE - where are the HoC votes ?
The Labour Leavers will vote against, so that's 20-30 moving from the rebels to the govt on that vote
Do you expect the missing votes from more Tory rebels sacrificing their careers ?

Do you expect BJ to suddently agree to a PV ?
btw, I can just about see him going for a PV of WA vs Revoke - in fact that might even be his GE manifesto, if Tory moderates won't sign up to No Deal

The details of the Arcuri case, and her attempts to 'help' him, look so massively suspect that I don't see how he can dodge it.

It’s hard for a weak PM to dodge much. But a PM in a stronger position, who has just won a WA in a time of anxiety and instability, could arguably be exonerated in a whitewash ‘enquiry’ for the greater good of the country.

Really depends on the strength of the evidence and the strength of feeling against him.

Personally I'm of the view that the majority of people don't give a fuck. If we eventually Revoke, most of those who voted Leave will be annoyed and feel like they've been screwed over by the elite again, which they were, just they're blaming the wrong elite. But they're not going to do anything about it other than politically disengage (i.e. "what's the point?") or moan about it down the pub. Then they'll die. They're not young revolutionaries!

Yep.

There's a real danger of getting over anxious about some aspects of Brexit because this thread, while well informed, a bubble. It's really important to pay attention to people in the "real" world too. Yes that's going to include cat's bus and listening's Asda both. But it'll also include all those people who are simply not paying much attention because it isn't immediately impacting their lives. And that last group is huge.

I'm reassured by the recent reporting of columnists who've been out talking to people on the street around the UK, and finding that they're concerned about the perennial standards of politics: the NHS, taxes, local infrastructure, education. Brexit registers only as an annoyance to most, a "isn't that shit over with yet?" sense.

"Less than 50% of the UK now support Leave, & around 50% of those Leavers support leaving with No Deal."

I already posted this - and Comres is one of the pollsters that gives the smallest Tory lead:

Britain Electss@britainelects*

If the EU doesn't agree to Boris Johnson's proposals for a Brexit deal, the UK should leave on 31st Oct without a deal:

Agree: 42%
Disagree: 40%

via @ComRes, 04 - 06 Oct

If you don't believe polls, then why believe the ones that show a Remain lead ?

I also posted that article that listed the consistent Remain lead since 2017 AND the expert pollster that said the lead was so narrow that the Leave campaign could easily pull ahead, as they did in 2016

Paul Brand*@paulbranditv*
BREAKING: I understand @KateOsamor has become the latest Labour MP to be triggered by her local party. Now faces a reselection battle in Edmonton. Not clear yet what the issue was - she has been a loyal supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, having served in his shadow cabinet.

Labour source says "Momentum/leadership have totally destroyed the selection rules and can't even protect their own people."

Digging further, @KateOsamor's local party is a complex mix of rivalries, with ethnic divisions. Labour source suggests that with trigger threshold set at 1/3 of branches, it's easy for one faction to bring a candidate down and "the main victims are BAME and female candidates".

Sample size is small, but there is an argument that a pattern is emerging.

Margaret Hodge
Diana Johnson
Kate Osamor
Emma Lewell-Buck
Virendra Sharma*
...all triggered - all female/BAME.

Roger Godsiff is the only white man to be triggered.

*later declared null & void

And also hearing that the next candidate to be triggered could be Rupa Huq. Again, a BAME woman.

Too soon to draw empirical conclusions, but if the aim of reselections is to increase diversity of candidates (as Momentum says), then so far it may not be having the desired effect.

And clear from this tweet from @PreetKGillMP that the concern is real

Preet Kaur Gill MP @PreetKGillMP
It’s clear @UKLabour seriously need to reconsider the rule change. So far it’s women who are being triggered! I stand in solidarity with all my fellow MPs facing triggers. We should be focused on preparing for a GE. @KateOsamor @DianaJohnsonMP @margarethodge @EmmaLewellBuck

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
This was the detail of Virendra Sharma by the way that earns the asterisk. First two votes went against him, the NEC declared them null and void, didn't get to full trigger stage.
t.co/06xt9PSiUm

But in a highly confusing run of events, Sharma still faces possible trigger

t.co/qs5lZMiWsp