Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

I disagree - respectfully - Listening.

We've (finally) reaches the numbers for a PV - and to win a PV for Remain.

Unfortunately, Party momentum (in Labour & the Conservatives) is still with the leaderships of those Parties. And they favour a GE.

In Johnson's case, he'd like a Deal + GE, or a forced extension + GE.
In Corbyn's case, extension, then GE promising a PV.

It's madness for the UK to go down that route.

And a WA, at this point - when most people no longer wish to Leave - is insane.

So - worth pushing HARD for a PV.

And back on the Brexit roundabout we get round and round we go .......

We've (finally) reaches the numbers for a PV - and to win a PV for Remain.

What will the question on the paper be ?
What will be the required margin of win ?
What will be the minimum valid turnout?
Who will be allowed to vote?

Sorry but the last referendum was catastrophic for UK democracy
I cannot support another one until the failings of the last were resolved.

And in no way at all do I share your faith in the UK electorate
they want it done
and will vote for whoever tells them the answer is simplest

Question on paper: WA + PD or whatever 'deal' Johnson brings back (his WA + PD) - versus Remain

I can see why Labour would want to put it off until after a GE (government Party will be implementing a PD, if it wins) but ...

We're effectively there, now. We have enough for a vote on May's WA versus Remain.

And Remain will win. 🤷‍♀️

Everything else is just going round and round the immovable, terrorising the people of the UK, and destabilising our economy and political system.

.

I agree with Cat
I hope the march next week is huge.

Listening The electorate have shifted. I think, in our hearts, we knew they would.

There's a die-hard element amongst Leavers - just above half - who will cling on in the face off everything.

They're noisy but ...

The rest of the electorate? We know they've shifted. Polls consistently show it now.

Thank God, the madness is wearing off.

As for Johnson ... well he has some pretty big debts riding on him pushing Brexit through in the face of an ever-decreasing mandate.

The very, very last thing we should do is enable those who have poured money and effort into the destabilisation of the EU and the UK.

Now that really would be undemocratic.

Don't get me wrong.
I will be there next Saturday
I would MUCH rather A50 was revoked during the march how COOL would that be

but I know that round here frustration would lead to large protest voting against the elite in a PV

I'm not at all surprised at the DUP position.

Polls consistently show it now.
Show me the poll that gives a remain win larger than the margin of sampling error (so at least 10%)
And show me the question that was asked to get that poll.

Because I do not see it or feel it or hear it out in the real world

And Remain will win

You know, I'm fully prepared for it to not to - and to accept that. In fact I expect it not to. It's the principle for me - of having something this shit, that everybody hates, foisted on us this long after the referendum, when it is proven that the leave campaign broke the law and told lies and that what we've ended up with is nothing like was promised at the time ... that's not OK! no one should accept that - even if they like brexit.

We need - we have a right to - a vote with real, defined options and to be involved in making an informed choice about our futures and the future of our country.

If a W.A is passed now then that tells the govt they can offer up a shit sandwich and a gun to parliament's and say vote for it or we pull the trigger. If parliament say no, they add more shit to the sandwich (removing UK wide backstop) and say we really mean it this time - it's this or goodbye Mr. head. And parliament will give in and accept the shittier sandwich and all its consequences rather than get their brains blown out.
And if they learn they can do that - what the fuck are they going to put in the sandwich and make us swallow next time?

If a precedent is set that you have to accept something terrible otherwise the govt will inflict something even worse on the country - then that is the end of our democracy full stop. It's not going to stop here. They're not going to get away with it once and never try it again. They MUST NOT be allowed to get away with it.

But if the people democratically vote for the W.A - that's completely different. The govt don't get away with it, they are forced to uphold democracy and that is the precedent that is set instead.

I agree with Listening
in hoping for a WA with backstop or equivalent that Ireland accepts
and I very much hope the EU keeps their "level playing field" red line, which would scupper any bargain basement US FTA

Another ref campaign is another opportunity for the far right to have a platform and gain more support
Cameron thought Remain was a sure thing back in 2015 too; even before the ref, Remain polled in the lead.

The WA would lance much of the poison, the anger of Leavers that Remainers never accepted the referendum
It would decouple those moderate Leavers who will never accept a PV with Remain,
but once we have actually Brexited could accept that the future relationship with the EU be close, i.e. negotiate a soft Brexit.

It would give us a transition period during which things stay the same, SM+CU, meds & food flow:
all we lose is voting rights - which in the UK'S current fucked-up stage is better anyway

The WA is an international treaty which is legally binding on future govts

There is good reason why the most hardline ERGers, who want a bonfire of regulations, are so fiercely opposed to any WA
The WA divides batshit Brexiters from sane Leavers

The next Tory govt can ignore / reverse the result of any PV

It would be easy to convince at least the 31-35% of the voters they need, that the PV was illegitimate,

e.g if it didn't have the most popular Leave option, which is No Deal
e.g. if Farage, JRM & co think they can't win and advocate a PV boycott, they can claim that those who didn't vote wanted No Deal too

However, we are getting way ahead of ourselves, discussing what may never be offered:

• This fragile "tunnel" may collapse any moment
• Even with a WA, there may be no majority in the HoC, with or without a PV, in which case eventually it will be automatic No Deal, because the EU won't extend beyond June and maybe not that long.

If we do leave, it rewards the illegality and depravity of the Leave campaign. Which will be a clear signal how to process for when vested interests make their next decision about the UKs future. And the time after that. And the time after that.

The PV would have a much better chance if Remainers hadn't been demanding a 2nd ref only days after the first.

That's the problem:
A 2nd ref is tainted because it has always been about reversing the first
If it were a recent idea, it would have a much better chance

It will worsen the divide
There has to be acceptance among Leavers too that holding a PV is a fair way to resolve the deadlock - and currently there isn't

Leavers, even moderate ones, would likely flock to the Tories in a GE, to over turn a 2nd ref
They don't need 50% in a GE, just 31-35%

Makes sense to me BCF, thats exactly what would happen, if the Tories stood on a No Deal ticket and got in thats it game over for the 48%

DG We've been through this argument before
It's not about the leaders of Leave; it's about the Leave voters

For them, it has become a matter of principle that their "victory" should be carried out
Some will be angry enough to vote for any likely party to do this

Establishing the principle that a ref can be ignored just makes it even easier for any PV to be ignored too.

Also, my opinion is that it is not sustainable to stay in the EU when around half the country doesn't want to
and many in the other half dislike the principles of the EU and only want to remain for financial / economic reasons^
e.g. ask Derxa if she likes the EU and accepts the stated aims of "ever closer union"

The UK has been a pain in the EU'S arse even before Cameron;
UK politicians & journos have continually trashed the EU
and the voters electing Farage's mob in such numbers gives the far right a platform & funds that they have used to spread their poison across the EU

The UK could be a serious danger to the EU if Revoke happens in these circumstances.

Poster00 I fear that forcing a PV through would be the gift that ensures a big Tory win and 5 years to No Deal and do as they want

I have the hope that if WA transition keeps being extended - which is possible with mutual consent to remove the time limit -
that eventually this fever will die down, sanity will return to politics and the hard right will be rejected

We might even in 10 years or so be in a political situation where we can ask for the Fast Track Rejoin

The Irish Border@BorderIrish 😂😂

• So what’s The Tunnel?
• It’s when we negotiate, you agree to what’s inevitable, and no-one WhatsApps the DUP

......

• It’s a pragmatic solution
• Well, that’s good
• It embodies the flexibility that’s been needed on all sides
• Hurrah
• Yes. Now, listen, it’s still in development
• Can I see it?
• I’d prefer not to ...
• Oh Holy God and all the saints is that it?
• It’s a prototype, ok?

Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
·
19m
Boris Deal v Remain would be a rigged referendum because it disenfranchises 4m Labour Leavers. It would be equivalent of a Ever Closer Union v Leave Option. Uniting one side of the referendum & dividing the other side is a rigged referendum. A “credible leave option” is fairest.

It also alienates the the moderate (I fucking hate using that word) Tory Leavers, it has to be a GE first cant see any other way, or pass the shit sandwich that is May's WA as the Kinnock ammendment suggests

Maybe a ref could gain acceptance with some form of STV and the 3 available options:
Revoke, WA, No Deal

it's a serious failing in democracy not allowing Leavers to vote for their preferred option
The one way that a PV could politically remove No Deal is if it is actually offered and voters reject it

Yes, I know No Deal is seriously damaging,
but so is UC, the rape clause, the fit to work assessments, hostile environment, Trident forced on Scotland ....

We don't exclude the Tory party from a GE, even though these policies have already killed some people and caused misery to millions more - many of them Leavers

Brexit Party out and about in my nearest town. Not many engaging (interestingly) so I stopped and asked if they could explain to me the difference between the Single Market and Customs Union. They couldn’t, so I told them, informed them they were far too ignorant to be playing politics and went on my way swearing under my breath. Still feel angry.

(All men and all, like Farage, younger than me but seemingly from a previous generation, very weird.)

The one way that a PV could politically remove No Deal is if it is actually offered and voters reject it.

But many voters won't reject it no deal . Some voters (like that woman on question time) think they know what they voted for and that's no involvement with the EU ever again - period !

In other cases thousands and thousands think No deal means returning to the status quo.

I tried to get my FiL( Brexity Faragist type) to imagine a trading bloc in another continental mass like South America. He wouldn't. But Imagine this is all not in Europe but it's Venezuela, Peru, Brazil , Bolivia, Ecuador , Argentina and Uruguay who are members of a 30 year old successful trading bloc. In return for a 0.7% fee, members get unrestricted access to a market on their doorstep worth $18.8 trillion of 500 million consumers and 80 +trade agreements around the world.... If you heard that Paraguay wanted to leave with no deal about an ongoing trading relationship as it thought it could do better without what would any impartial observer think of Paraguay ? Savvy or taking an absurd risk.

Sorry Born I cross posted.Hope you had a good break.

How can such stupid people think they know enough to convert others to the Brexit altar and they don't even know the bloody difference between the SM and the CU. I guess it's valid to vote without knowing, but It's not valid to canvass without knowing the difference.

The WA, as signed by Theresa is not a deal, it never was. It is a summary of the legilation tying the UK to the EU. 585 pages of legally binding treaties and agreements. It is 'simply' the menu.
If the UK is leaving, then the WA defines how it will happen. If the UK would like to retain ome things, then the PD is the mechanism to 'chose' from the menu and possibly define times when things may be enacted.
If you go to a reataurant, you look at the menu and decide what you would like. If it specialises in fish, you may not find anything you like and you may struggle to find a meal. Maybe the chef can rustle up an omlette for you if you are lucky. If you insist on throwing the cutlery and table decorations around while you are deciding the management may just chuck you out anyway, or get the local branch of the Millwall upporters club to sit next to your table to 'persuade' you to leaveYou might rummage in youyr handbag and find some sandwiches you had bought earlier so you have those and abandon the idea of a meal.
The UK has still not defined what it wants but is still saying all the things it does not want.

I fully accept that passing the WA accepts the deeply flawed referendum outcome
but it is the least flawed way forward

An STV referendum would make things even even worse
because low information voters would be whipped up by Russian social media ads to do something daft

And if there was another referendum that was also 52:48 leave
do we just have to put up with it?

At least with the WA we will have delivered Brexit and can then water it down later