Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

Unless the WA has got too musty and started to fade, as far as I am aware, it is 585 pages essentially liting all the treaties that bind the UK to the EU and with them a LEGALLY enactable way to 'untie' each of the many points. Thus signing up for it in it's entirity means that the UK will then not be in the EU. The Political Document is the discussion part, where through proper negotition, each of the various topics can be assigned a date when it will be enacted or possibly, opened for a little emphasis LITTLE, modification, thus having leeway for the canada or Norway type 'deals' (could be used as templates to lower the workload) or come to some other agreement.
The WA is thus the 'menu' and the UK needs to chose which of the treaties/legislation is kept or lost, but the WA defines the process of how it would be achieved which has already been trashed through by the heads of all 28 countries (well 27 plus Theresa who might have been holding her nose).

Escaped the ban 54321 Good to see you back !

www.economist.com/britain/2019/10/12/the-perils-of-polling-britains-coming-election

Explanation of why polls are all over the place. More voters are fickle and will swap between parties which is a nightmare for pollsters. Add into that one in five voters say their vote is tactical.

Math Under FTPA, the govt would need ⅔ of MPs to agree to a GE

• or a simple majority to repeal the FTPA and then to vote for a GE

The way BJ could force a GE is to resign on 18/19 October and let the Rebel Alliance try to find a PM in the 14 day period.
Still no sign they could do so.

Although the (Scottish ?) court would appoint an official to request extension if BJ as PM refuses to extend , it is unclear if they would do so if there is not even a caretaker PM and govt, i.e. no refuasal, just a void.
Anyway, after 14 days of no PM; there would be an automatic GE, after which the Tories can choose to No Deal if they win a majority

math I'd expect the situation of Loyalists bombing the British mainland because they want to "stay British" is a sure way of British public opinion deciding to get rid of NI asap

Loyalist riots in Scotland don't have the same impact on Westminster as anything in England would
No wonder the SNP is so dominant

If the Provisional IRA resume, I'd expect it to be a few targeted bombings on v expensive City targets

• that - and US pressure - is what forced the UK govt into talks to end the Troubles: not murdering civilians, but costing billions and big City firms threatening to leave.

The 'level playing field' terms were v important in the last WA and I really really hope the EU holds out for them in this.
It would prevent any US FTA or other race to the bottom

It's important for the EU too, not to have a large neighbour competing for business with a bonfire of workers & consumer rights and of environmental regs

• EU business would be at a big disadvantage, competing with Mombai-on-Thames

How many people are even aware that there were two loyalist bombings on the UK mainland during the Troubles (I hate the expression ) ? No fatalities, but they were deliberately placed in pubs requested by Catholics by the UVF.

Hope the attached posts. Surely, surely Labour can't be this stupid, tone deaf, etc? They'll have to cancel or reschedule this Corbyn rally in Liverpool on 19 October, right? Please someone reassure me here.

Won’t Corbyn be in the HOC on the 19th anyway???

It is still sitting or has that changed?

That must be so stressful, loveEU
So many UK EU employees like you, in limbo since June 2016, not knowing how long they have a job.
The extensions must be a particular torture, with the pressure ramped up every few months

I've heard some have obtained Belgian citizenship and managed to get job security that way, but I don't know if many can do so.
Are you ok re job prospects ?

Good work by "Led By Donkeys"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/12/brexit-the-horror-film-billboards-mock-governments-get-ready-campaign-led-by-donkeys

I'll not post the picture of the winning poster in case anyone is triggered by clowns

Just noticed the autocarrot in my post about Loyalist bombings I did of course mean "pubs frequented by Catholics"

I'll not post the picture of the winning poster in case anyone is triggered by clowns

Greatly greatly appreciated pretty, it would fuck my whole day up

It really would - I'm not bothered by clowns but even I was disturbed by the picture of BJ made up as IT.

I'll post one of the other winners instead

Pretty I had a clown jack in the box as a child which has scarred me for life. What’s worse than a clown ? A clown face popping up unexpectedly at you.

A clown face popping up unexpectedly at you.

Has resulted in 4 clowns receiving JustAnother related injuries, phobia of clowns + 20+ years martial arts + fight/flight always results in fight response = being spoken to by police 4 times in my life

Reminds me of the Frasier episode when he was trying to address a client's fear of clowns (can't remember what the official term for it is)

“Beware the jokers and the tricksters and the clowns,They will laugh us all to hell.”

"Years and Years" was scarily prescient

Re Insomnia : I find a bit of Pride and Prejudice reading in the middle of the night .... the section at Netherfield with the taking turns around the room - who is saying which lines fills your head and then you can sleep again.

Lonely I currently have insomnia and the sickness bug - however I haven't been sick, just have the constant feeling I am going to be. I had the same with morning sickness and was thankfully only sick once. Am feeling a little like I am having a phantom pregnancy for our PouletPup who is arriving in a few weeks time... very odd!

In terms of Brexit
we have to start from where we are, not where we would wish to be
The only way out that will calm everything down quickly
is to pass the WA
get into the 2 year transition
THEN have a GE
and get a government who negotiate the softest of soft exits

remember that the WA will cause real hardship in the UK because it means the mainland leaving the CU and SM
but with the protection of the transition
it will NOT be as bad as crashing out
and can be wound back by the negotiators

The current government is absolutely powerless
a clever opposition will get the WA through and then allow the govt to become utterly hated among the chaos
THEN call the VONC / GE
and get a mandate for BINO

or am I too optimistic on a rainy day ?

"Guardian climate score" for each party's Westminster leader:

Ian Blackford (SNP): 100%
Liz-Saville Roberts (Plaid): 100%
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour): 92%
Caroline Lucas (Green): 92%
Jo Swinson (LD): 50%
Anna Soubry (TIG): 17%
Boris Johnson (Conservative): 0%

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082693-dup-brexit/

rte.ie
DUP won't support Brexit deal that leaves NI in EU
3-4 minutes

The DUP has said that if they do not like any deal that the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may get with the EU, the party will vote it down in Westminster.

In an interview with RTÉ News, Ian Paisley Jnr warned Boris Johnson would need the party's ten votes and he said if Mr Johnson wants them, he needs to earn them.

"I think Boris Johnson would be very sensible not to try and cast the DUP under any bus or onto any railings. Boris Johnson.... needs our ten votes. If he wants them, like Theresa May, he’s got to earn them. If he doesn’t earn them he doesn’t get them".

Mr Paisley Jnr also refused to rule out a referendum in Northern Ireland as a mechanism for consent, but he said it was not what the party was proposing.

He said the DUP believed the assembly should have a say and he did not want to see that proposal watered down or beefed up.

He said the DUP maintains its position that it will not be leaving the EU separately from the UK or be "trapped" in a customs union.

He also said that any regulatory changes will require a "democratic veneer".

Earlier, DUP leader Arlene Foster said any Brexit deal that traps Northern Ireland in EU structures will not get DUP support, Arlene Foster has warned.

The DUP leader said her party would only back a withdrawal agreement that is in Northern Ireland's "long-term economic and constitutional interests".

Ms Foster acknowledged there had been a lot of speculation as to what had happened during British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's meeting with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in England yesterday.

The positive read out from Thursday's encounter, followed by the intensification of UK and EU negotiations, has prompted suggestions both sides could be poised to make compromises on customs arrangements, to avoid border checks on the island of Ireland.

Responding to the developments, Ms Foster said Boris Johnson was aware of the DUP view that the UK had to leave the EU as one nation.

She made clear her party would exercise its "considerable influence" in Parliament to stand up for the region.

"We are regularly in touch with the Prime Minister and as a result he is aware of our views," she said.

"The United Kingdom EU referendum result delivered the people's verdict and it must be delivered. To do otherwise would be anti-democratic.

Ms Foster said no barriers to trade could be erected within the UK.

She stressed the importance of Northern Ireland politicians giving democratic consent to any arrangement that might align the region with specific sectors of the single market.

"We have held steadfast to that position whilst recognising the need to be flexible and look at Northern Ireland specific solutions achieved with the support and consent of the representatives of the people of Northern Ireland," Ms Foster added.