Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

It's a joke account Fluffy

Ahhhh! Makes sense then.

Yes Hester That's why I'm so very pessimistic about this turn of events. What is on offer now is much shitter than what was on offer in March ... which was too shit to contemplate.

This new deal is not good news. Nor does it head off the threat of no deal for the Island of Britain ... it just kicks the can down the road until next December - if they bother to wait even that long.

The only hope, if the deal is passed, is a GE - before one is due - that then returns anything other than the tories in the driving seat one way or another. That is not a hope to be pinning the entire future of your nation on.
Especially as once a deal is passed the likelihood of a GE probably decreases. And if it does happen, Boris can stand on a platform of having got brexit done.

@TheMShip the only thing that can override legislation is legislation. And ERG bollocks legislation would be superceded by a Withdrawal Agreement that put NI in the EU customs union.

Great interview by Medhi Hasan with Richard Just For Men Tice

twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1182653261448278017?s=20

Pretzels I think there’s a lot in what you say. I hope the Opposition haven’t been wrong-footed by this development, which they may not have been expecting. We shall see...

The EU aren't stupid, even if the Uk govt is

If Barnier & co do manage to get a WA they think is worth signing, it really might be an idea to listen to the experts in the organisation you are so desperate to belong to.

Trashing every WA, whether this or May's, because you want Revoke and nothing else .... will just lead to No Deal

In the worst case for WA, NI has its backstop and the whole UK has a transition period during which meds continue to flow

The minimal FTA only happens if BJ wins a majority at the GE, but if he wins and there is no WA he'd just No Deal anyway

If there is a hung Parliament and a coalition, or even a Labour govt, then the WA would enable a soft Brexit

My fear is that this 'deal' has only come about because Boris painted himself into a corner - he didn't get his GE and the Benn bill means he has to ask for an extension - which he categorically refuses to ask for, but refusal to do so is openly breaking the law ... which he certainly doesn't mind in theory but doesn't want to get caught doing and face the consequences.

So he needs to put a deal back in front of the HoC - if they reject it he can say 'see I gave them a deal they didn't want it,' and go for no deal. If they accept it - that's where it gets tricky. ClassicDom wants no deal so he can destroy everything and rebuild in his own image, the ERG want the low wages and regulations of their wetdreams the victorian era, the disaster capitalist want the fire sale and Russia wants to destabilise Europe. Boris is in hock to all these people.
He can't go for the old W.A - because the UK wide backstop means that if negotiations break down we stay aligned to Europe. But an NI only backstop means no such thing. Negotiations can break down - NI will stay in the backstop and the rest of the UK (the richest pickings) will crash and burn. Boris will have already tipped them the wink that it's OK to vote for this because it still leaves them free to burn down the house with us all inside - just a bit later than planned.

I really hope the opposition - including labour leavers - understand all this.

There’s a new Westminster voting intention poll. ( ) last week.

Con 35% (34%)
Lab 22% (21%)
Lib 20% (23%)
BXP 12% (12%)
^ This poll has all the don’t knows/won’t vote won’t says (you only have to go err to a question in this survey to find your self culled) so 27% of the original sample gone. 53% of this poll is male.

Adding in the Don’t Knows gives

Con 25% (24%)
Lab 16% (15%)
Lib 15% (16%)
BXP 9% (9%)
DK 15% (16%)

The DK are 65% female. 72% of DK did not vote Tory in 2017.

It’s still tight.

The EU care about Ireland - and protecting their trade bloc/ minimising disruption for themselves.
Signing a NI only backstop WA does all that - of course they will accept it. But if Boris then doesn't negotiate/ walks away - and takes Britain over a cliff - they will let it happen. They are already preparing to let no deal happen.
They are preparing a WA that protects them - not because they think or care if it protects us long term.
You're talking about Boris wanting a minimal FTA and having to go through parliament to get it passed (and hoping that he doesn't have a majority, or that the kingmakers aren't further right than he is). I'm talking about him walking away completely to please his many masters. He doesn't need parliament for that. He has already said he will not extend the transition period. that gives him 14 months even if he can be bothered to put the hours in. Which he can't - not least because he doesn't want to.

Get the WA through
then allow the trade negotiations to water it down to BINO

All those polls always exclude the SNP and Plaid Cymru because they are "regional".

Iirc (I haven't checked the data tables recently) they are holding steady at c4-5% (there is a limit to how much the SNP avian take over Scotland ). If you add that on to the percentages, then Remain supporting parties (yes, I know that that's a leap for the Labour Party ) have a definite majority.

Always feel a bit mean leaving SNP, Plaid, and Greens not to mention ‘others’ out.

Just dipping in to tell anyone who has access to RTE to put on the late late as Bercow is coming on.
Sorry if the last 20 messages have said the same thing - haven't checked.

imo, some Remainers keep catastrophising any WA, because they want Revoke - and every WA is of course Brexit

The ERG and the hard Brexiters are going nuts over the talk of this WA
Because it buggers up their plans

If there is a WA, it won't be the ERG batshitters who vote for it; it'll be the remaining moderate sane Tories plus most of the ex-Tories

If BJ wins a majority and no WA has been passed, he will go immediately for No Deal
He will do so even if there has been a miracle and a PV happened

.... because Parliament can ignore any ref, repeal any previous bill
All that is binding is an international treaty like the WA

He is doing tricks by saying his doing his different Order! Voices

Now he is on to the mice in Speakers house when they moved in

He doesn't think crashing out is tolerable or rational

Be you ever so high.... even senior ministers..

As Listening says
the WA could lead to BRINO
Would definitely do, with a Labour or coalition govt

Any deal will take years to negotiate, so we'll probably keep extending & extending in transition, keeping the same benefits as now, except for voting

Nothing should impede ..... Irish peace.... extraordinary statesmanship..... no commenting on current politicians but Blair Major Ahern had a particular sensitivity

It is about what is feasible with the HoC we have now and with the timing we have.

Not risking all for some dream of Revoke - to stay in an EU that mostly wants rid of us

It's about keeping medicines and food flowing for years in transition.

Johnson cheats at tennis.

Thanks for the updates 7Days

He denies anticipating being PM of caretaker Gov.
UK should be friendly with EU. EU as enemy is juvenile.