Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

@dreichsky don't say it's name.

Every time someone mentions M. H#pk?ns

Another fairy dies.

Just don't do it

Sorry my bad!!
But my main point was that if a bunch of predominantly working class Scots can tell her to F off when she starts spouting racist dirge about Syrian refugees then there is still plenty of hope in the world.

Does the execrable K. H. realise that the insecticide used to kill cockroaches was pressed into service during WW2 for the purposes of pure evil?

Musings:
The Varadkar/Johnson plan involves a referendum in NI only on CU/SM.
DUP throws toys out of pram and Johnson finally calls his election.
Manifesto includes Brexit asap plus referendum in NI.
Johnson feels safe on this platform because nobody in Britain really cares about NI from a Unionist pov except people living there, plus maybe a few areas of Glasgow and Liverpool. Meanwhile there are plenty of Irish voters with nationalist sympathies to counterbalance any British Unionist vote.

GE:
Tories biggest party but not majority -

• DUP says HAH!
• Hammond et al sharpen knives.

Tories gain very slim majority -

• Hammond Group flexes muscles.
• Referendum in NI goes ahead in due time.
• DUP does extreme dog whistling.
• Referendum result is to stay in CU/SM regardless. Border in Irish Sea in other words.

Scotland demands referendum too...

He can't 'call' an election though, can he?

If a deal gets through, will the parties bother VoNC-ing imminently? Or will they get their own houses in order first, so BoZo doesn't benefit from the 'getting Brexit done' bounce? (I.e. Labour replace Corbyn; moderate Tories do their thing etc.)

Blimey.The Irish press is soooo much better than it is here.

I was trying to understand what exactly would be asked in an NI referendum.

This~article is from before Varadkar's meeting with Johnson but it contains very perceptive comments about how referenda are 'unusual tools in politics' and sometimes people do not necessarily answer the question that is being asked.

I'm still not quite sure how you would stop a NI referendum turning into a full border poll but I guess if the question was very specific and time limited..it would be answered correctly. The difference is there would be an actual plan to vote on before this NI referendum.

(It wouldn't be a ' shall we impose our interpretation of what we want not what you wanted' referendum.)

" Media reports of proposals suggested that the North would remain in the customs union and single market with a border in the Irish Sea for a set number of years - a seven year deadline has been mentioned - after which a majority of both nationalists and unionists, a “double majority”, would be required for the arrangement to change.
Mr Ryan said his party proposed a referendum in the North, “not a Border poll about sovereignty or unity but one on the specifics of a deal”.

The Taoiseach stressed that referendums were “unusual tools in politics and sometimes when it comes to a referendum, people do not necessarily answer the question that is being asked”.

He said if there were to be a referendum “even though it would not be a Border poll on the ballot paper, there is a risk that it might become a proxy Border poll and cause division among the communities there”.

He added: “That is not a reason not to do it but it is something that we need to bear in mind in any of our considerations.”
The Taoiseach said the UK’s position is that the North must leave the EU customs union and be part of the UK customs union “no matter what the people of Northern Ireland think”.

That “creates a grave difficulty for us because we want there to be a deal that respects the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland and the people in this Republic too”.

Mr Ryan said his party proposed a referendum in the North, “not a Border poll about sovereignty or unity but one on the specifics of a deal”.

If the plan is workable, however flawed, it could be very difficult for labour to actually vote against it especially if there are doubts (as there must be) of whether Bozo will comply with the Benn Act or do something else to undermine it.

If a deal squeaks through Bozo doesn't need an election anymore and a VONC might work but might not.

If a deal doesn't get through labour and the lindens are already being widely blamed by the knuckle dragging media for not voting for the WA. That would be ramped up throughout the campaign until by the end a considerable proportion of people would probably believe labour insisted on and negotiated no deal...

Well I don't know what to think this morning. One thing that brexit has taught us so far is that nothing is definite.

I agree, kings.

I actually think that there will be a significant minority who would vote for any deal just to see the back of no deal. There are also a number of MPs who are remainers, but think the referendum result should be respected (Clarke and Boles being two).

I think a deal would squeak through at this point (when we're faced with do or dying in a ditch / a PM who's happy to be unlawful in his actions).

It would be interesting to see how many ERG would defy the Whip too.

Ultimately, it's the divorce deal. The ACTUAL deals will come after and take many years. There's still an opportunity for another administration to shape the type of Brexit later on.

PMK if some sort of WA is going to get through Parliament then there is going to have to be a lot of compromise, who will be the ones doing it ?

Ultimately, it's the divorce deal. The ACTUAL deals will come after and take many years. There's still an opportunity for another administration to shape the type of Brexit later on.

^ Fluffy makes an excellent point.

We've said before, that there are some misogynistic twats MPs who wouldn't have voted for May's deal purely because it was hers.

This is (assuming it happens) Johnson's deal. A bloke. An old Etonian. He'll whip for it. The few MPs who could've made a difference last time might vote for it on those counts alone. Hence the squeak!

They'll be some who've been all bluster up to now saying they won't vote for anything. Are they really going to defy the Whip and potentially wreck their careers? I'm not so sure.

Bercows I think it's the best hope we've had of a deal we've had in a couple of years tbh.

Pressure is such there isn't much wiggle room for anyone. And the DUP were always the easiest to sell down river. At this stage I think the DUP actually want to be sold down river publicly but privately will be relieved at it as it let's them off the hook politically in NI with their core support.

Whether it comes to fruition is another manner. People need to see it for what it is - our last best hope to let the hot air out of the Brexit balloon slowly without it bursting.

Once we have left, we could have a hard exit, but if the result has been delivered in the eyes of the public it also allows narratives to change and spin to be applied in different ways. A softer approach is still possible when reality starts to kick in during the transition and negotiation period. But not a given. But its better than no deal and potential civil unrest.

I don't know how it's going to go. It's fragile. But the mood music is positive so far.

I expect a backlash from hardliners but they are a minority and unless Johnson does decide the high risk illegal path he doesn't have much of a choice.

I'll say it again...

He'll put up a version of May's deal to the HofC and EU with stuff crossed out in crayon and it'll just squeak through...

So. Shit deal it is.

GE and a tory majority.

Fun times.

But we probably wouldn't have a GE then. The other parties are unlikely to VoNC if a deal has gone through.

And this isn't the final deal. It's the divorce settlement. We can still be OK (comparatively) on the other side!

Agree with Hoooo except for the Tory majority bit.
Hopefully the DUP will be wiped out too.

If a deal squeaks through Bozo doesn't need an election anymore

How is he going to pass any legislation without a majority in Parliament? He wants to be the one who ‘got Brexit done’, then when the inevitable GE arrives, get himself a nice comfortable majority and spend the next 5 years dismantling what’s left of the welfare state, removing workers’ rights and selling us to the US. Maybe better than no deal, but still not pleasant to contemplate.

If ( and big if) there is a deal and no pressing need for a VONC, the tories who have jumped ship come gradually back to the fold ( except grieve) so there's not much of a difference and it could put labour in the unenviable position of having to vote down spending proposals which are awfully similar to their own spending proposals if they're to be defeated....

He might want an election. But he might not get one. Which means the opposition have more power to shape the future.

I wouldn't go for VoNC in the opposition's shoes if a deal goes through. And the FTPA means he can't just have one, so hey ho.

How would this rumoured deal work in the NI if we do a deal with the US and the rest of us end up with their fake cheese and chlorinated chicken. I note the proposal for tariffs one way can’t see anything about the other direction. So could that cheap tasty cheese and chicken end up in ROI due to a leaky border between the two? If agri regs are included this would mean the EU being dependent on an internal border where they have no control to prevent this scenario happening wouldn’t it?

That's why you have a customs border between GB and NI.

I think his ego wants an election....but you may be right....he may not get one.

Exactly a customs border not a leaky customs partnership.

But we actually have to sort out the terms of the deal during the transition period, don’t we? Without a GE, it’s the current nasty gits doing the negotiating anyway. Surely the opposition have to consider that?