Peter Foster@pmdfoster
So quick thoughts on @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar pow-wow and what we know/don't know. /1 Thread
First thing is that something definitely happening. This is not just blame-game posturing.
Asked a very trusted source tonight (who would know) what the outline was and they replied "sorry, can't" or words to that effect.
When top people clam up, that means one thing... /2
There is finally something substantive to protect....a proposal that might be workable and no-one wants derailing with leaks.
In #Brexit the sound of silence is always the sound of deals being done - or of a potential to be done. /3
I note that even the peerless @tconnellyRTE doesn't have a clear read - QED. /4
Tony Connelly@tconnellyrte
Choreography for Barclay-Barnier meeting in Brussels:
Breakfast mtg at 9am CET, probably running till 10.30. Michel Barnier then briefs member states via coreper EU Ambassadors' meeting
2/ Barnier is expected to receive new proposals from the Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay, based on the understanding reached by Johnson and Varadkar in Wirral, and will decide, based on the feedback from member states, if they form the basis of a deepening of the negotations
3/ All sides are coy about what the new proposals contain, except that Varadkar and Johnson discussed customs, consent and post-Brexit bilateral relations, but if this can be done relatively quickly it must raise suspicions that it is in the realm of an off-the-shelf deal
4/ In other words, something that brings us closer to the Joint Report and NI-only backstop; or perhaps something of the Customs Partnership idea, ie NI remains in the UK customs territory but it applies the EU's tariffs and customs rules
5/ We don't know just yet. The Commission is insisting its red lines haven't changed, Varadkar says there can be no customs border on the island of Ireland. Boris Johnson has made NI leaving the Customs Union a fundamental principle.
6/ So somewhere within that crowded niche there must be the germ of something. It may well be that by linking customs and consent, in the classic negotiating ploy, both sides can find some room for manoeuvre. The Commission was fully briefed by Ireland ahead of the Wirral meeting
7/ One source tonight suggested everyone keep calm and not get trigger happy. Let's see tomorrow.
Peter Foster@pmdfoster
There's a couple of other intriguing things we know - since rest is speculation.
The Irish seemed more chipper, more willing to make a big announcement than the British side.
As @Mij_Europe noted, more caution../5
Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
So UK officials I've spoken to a bit more downbeat than readout from Irish times. 1/ Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains. Don't see a Commons majority otherwise. 3/ Objective is to tee up a real negotiation between @MichelBarnier & @SteveBarclay tomorrow. UK side continues to believe that @EU_Commission holds the key. "If they want to make it work they will." So both sides still holding to core principles ENDS
Peter Foster@pmdfoster
Which might suggest that @BorisJohnson nervous that whatever concession has been made risks alienating @duponline or his backbenchers.
Brexit negs are a litany of UK PMs over-promising, under-delivering...and getting slaughtered for it when they get back home. /6
So worth remembering that whatever Johnson gets in Brussels, if he gets a deal, has to go through UK Parliament.
Lots of talk of Labour MPs at the ready - not my bailiwick - but a deal opens door to hard 'Tory' #Brexit can it get the numbers? /7
So what might the 'breakthrough' be?
Well at this everyone is speculating but we know it needs to bridge gaps primarily on
a) 'consent' - so how NI has 'say' in deal b) customs. /8
On the 'consent' party worth noting that the EU is saying this is the more easily fixable area.
So the DUP veto needs to 'go'...but whatever replaces it has to fly, since @BorisJohnson needs DUP on board for numbers in Westminster. /9
If it is based around the 'double majority' principle and 'parity of esteem' ideas laid out by @BrunoBrussels this week that might be a big ask for DUP.
From veto before end of transition period; to 'no veto' effectively. Big political face loss /10
Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
NEW EU ready to make a major concession on consent by allowing a double majority in the NI assembly to leave new Irish backstop after (as yet) unspecified number of years
t.co/BtBTS1TxaR
DUP and Eurosceptics reject Brexit offer on Irish backstop
‘Double majority means we can never leave’
Peter Foster@pmdfoster
So consent, while less obvioulsy intractable than customs, still has chance to be tricky...
So what about customs? Well, a logical landing zone was identified by @RaoulRuparel recently - the revival for the May 'dual tariff' scheme for NI only. /11
This is where @denisstaunton lands up for Irish Times... but it is not straight forward, even if it would seem to fit the 'spirit' of the Good Friday Agreement by allowing both sides to live in parallel realities effectively. /12
t.co/Fg4HD3yzgN
Customs border in Irish Sea emerges as the only basis of a Brexit deal
EU could accept a scaled-down version of customs partnership proposed by May
Peter Foster@pmdfoster
^I did some thoughts on the issues here, which @RaoulRuparel acknowledged as sound/real...but not with standing not insurmountable. See @SamuelMarcLowe
threads for more. /13^
thread reader thread
The obvious issues are
a) leakage over border for products that had rebate
b) unfair competition where NI biz gets 'subsidy' against ROI competitors. /14
Also, per UK proposal, at the moment the UK says, for E-W broder it wont use EU processes, but hasn't yet stood up workable/compliant alternative...that needs to be addressed too. /15
But COULD the EU accept leakage/impurity as the price of a deal IF it was confined to Northern Ireland (1.8m people) and so limited. That in turns depends on GB-NI border functioning. /16
Well, EU dips from major member states are not totally prescriptive on this. The Ruparel piece was not laughed out of bed. One senior EU dip said to me that "there are two 'pure solutions', we know, but neither work. The question is how much impurity we can live with'. /17
So maybe it is doable - but all that is caveated by fact that EU absolutely HATED this scheme before (but was presented for all-UK) and the Commission/institutions may well be harder over than the Member States. /18
The last thing is timing. @LeoVaradkar seemed to be talking about a very quick deal (for next week) which points to something pretty of the shelf....which makes me doubt NCP-NI ideas above...but maybe it can be inserted into WA and agreed? /19
So that would be a legally binding commitment, but you'd still need some kind of fall back if it all went' pear-shaped or wasn't ready by transition end in 2020. And the more UK diverged, better the systems would need to be. /20
So that's it - lots of uncertainty, but clearly - for the first time in the Johnson tenure - a sense that there is something to serously talk about. We'll see. If it goes belly-up, both sides can go back to blamegame/elction strategies I suppose. Hope not. ENDS