Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

The safest way to stop No Deal is to vote for May's WA before a GE

It is a legally binding international treaty with certain minimum terms, such as the NI backstop and stopping a Bonfire of Red Tape / Rights

I would be surprised if there wasn’t a concerted attempt to bring this back over the coming weeks to avoid no deal, and that this will quite possibly split the Tories down the middle and end up truly ripping them apart, not to mention the damage it will do to Labour as 40 or so look to join them.

The next few weeks are likely to be the more turbulent than we have yet experienced in our lifetimes. You ain’t seen nothing yet!

My money is on Gove leading the Tory WA resurgence (he’s said quite recently he’d vote for it if it returned), stabbing BJ in the back as he did so.

Parliament to sit on Saturday 19th October? Has only sat on a Saturday 4 times since 1939 - and 3 of those were due to military conflicts (Falklands, Suez, WW2).

It shouldn't be all doom and gloom that the leave side is using tricks from history - The Goebbels Playbook for example - since it exposes them to the same "cures" that were subsequently found to work by the allies.

There are tried and tested de-nazification techniques. And we don't need to escort folk into cinemas at gunpoint these days. They willing watch all manner of content.

"Britons living in the EU who trade services such as accountancy, translation services and architecture will not be able to continue to do so outside the country of their residence unless they have acquired such a right through alternative routes such as citizenship."

This isn't going to bother any Leavers here a jot. Non readers couldn't give a shit when a library burns down.

It will be much more apparent when all of a sudden people can't just pop to France or Germany for a job - or to do their own job from the UK - that it will bite.

I would be surprised if there wasn’t a concerted attempt to bring this back over the coming weeks to avoid no deal

I wondered this too. Or a last minute further (?) attempt at a time limit on the backstop?

It's a bit beyond my brain but thinking of it from Westminster and Varadkar's perspective.. what are the pros and cons of:

• instant no deal- where Varadkar has to have a hard border to protect the integrity of goods in the single market (like flammable children's clothing etc). This would have to last until a new 3rd party trading process is reached say 5-8 years down the road. Or
• a 5-8 year time limited backstop in a rejigged May WA.

I'm not sure my brain can evaluate the merits and demerits but an understandable lack of trust in the Johnson crew is a significant factor against an unlimited backstop I guess.

Reports today that the EU will offer a deal with an NI only backstop that the UK can unilaterally withdraw from after 5 years with the double consent of the Stormont assembly.

I can’t see the DUP going for it though because they want a single party veto rather than actual consent.

Very interesting long thread from @syrpis about possible GNU/ caretaker PM. One point about the leader is that maybe Corbyn shouldn’t want to be it.

It’s a massive strategic mistake that I can’t see ending well for Corbyn. He only becomes PM
if the LDs and all the independents (at least all
those before the 21 Tories were expelled) support him.

In the to and fro-ing after a VONC, many Labour MPs will begin to blink before all the independents will, and after a couple of failed attempts, a non-Corbyn candidate will likely get a substantial portion of the Parliamentary Labour Party voting for them.

This will put impossible pressure on Corbyn. Either he falls in line with his already tarnished reputation now in absolute tatters or, even worse, he soldiers on with an ever-diminishing band of loyalists as a couple-of-dozen more Tories, peel off to support the PM-candidate (probably a long-standing Labour MP who’s agreed to resign the whip) and he’s out in the cold, utterly ruined.

Constitutional lawyer’s explanation on Government’s obligations under the Benn Act and the legal response to attempts to frustrate it:

Nothing legal, but I note with interest one of the contributors thanked is a "Mark DSouza", rather than D'Souza I wonder if that's a typo, or whether they finally gave up after years of dealing with the "There's only one way to spell a surname - the English way" mentality that pervades all levels of our society ....

Meanwhile, Frankie Boyle continues to cheer

He only becomes PM
if the LDs and all the independents (at least all
those before the 21 Tories were expelled) support him.

On the LibDem front amidst the rumours of another 20 + Torys wanting to defect that makes 40+ with the expelled ones.

Why can't they have a temporary home in the LibDems like a sort of Venn diagram subset or like an opposition confidence and supply arrangement.

Sort of like a bolt on or LibDem plus or something. So it's as if there's a corral within the LibDems which is a sub group that sticks together until the ERG fail and can then separate off again later?

There must be a way of having a temporary merger with agreed areas the vote together on and areas where they can diverge.

@BirdandSparrow I think you'd need some specialist advice here.

A Briton living in Spain won't be able to visit France to deliver services in France - that's clear. So if you're an interpreter living in Spain and you want to do interpretation work at a client's premises in France or Portugal I think that's a no.

But a UK-citizen owned business based in Spain can presumably still contract to provide services to EU customers providing the work is done in Spain? For eg if you're a translator, your client can send you documents and you can translate them on behalf of your Spanish business. (You obvious need actual legal advice on this not the thoughts of a random on t'internet!)

The other complication will be qualifications and whether they continue to be recognised/valid after Brexit.

Reports today that the EU will offer a deal with an NI only backstop that the UK can unilaterally withdraw from after 5 years with the double consent of the Stormont assembly.

This is clever.

Double majority = consent from both communities = strictly in keeping with the spirit of the GFA.

Essentially guarantees a backstop with no time limit, while moving responsibility for no deal onto the DUP/Tories.

They are better at the blame game than us too.

@BirdandSparrow obviously you will need professional advice but I don't see how that could be true. I'm non-EU living on the Continent and still have the right to sell my services throughout the EU. That's because I have a legal right of residence in the country in which I reside. So if your Spanish papers are in order I can't see how there would be any further issues. It doesn't matter whether you're actually a citizen or not. There are many, many of us non-EU peeps living and working here legally and in everyday life you can't see a difference between who has an EU passport and who doesn't.

And obviously being Irish as well gives you all the rights of an EU national, it's just a question of being able to prove it.

A Briton living in Spain won't be able to visit France to deliver services in France - that's clear. So if you're an interpreter living in Spain and you want to do interpretation work at a client's premises in France or Portugal I think that's a no.

I agree; however, there's also such a thing as EU permanent residency (which I have). It's relatively new and the UK never signed up to it. However, in principle it allows people with PR in one member state to move to other participating member states, despite not being citizens. It's a huge paperwork issue apparently but it does exist.

Why can't they have a temporary home in the LibDems like a sort of Venn diagram subset or like an opposition confidence and supply arrangement.

If nothing else, Brexit has shattered the old "party for life" approach to voting that older folk have enjoyed. It's created a huge pool of "floating voters" (haven't heard that term for a while, which I don't think is an accident ) which makes polling and electing a much more volatile event.

Maybe it was going to happen anyway, and Brexit was just the catalyst ? I think I suggested (what seems like) ages ago there was an opportunity to try and seize the changes and get in front of things.

For the past 10 years, I've been amused by companies like Gartner consistently proclaiming the return of PC sales, and latterly smartphone sales when the reality is we've reached peak PC and smartphone and THE OLD DAYS ARE GONE.

See also: THE HIGH STREET

and now add: UK POLITICS.

There is no "going back". We are never going to see "the good old days". With the extra irony that the more Brexiteer types try to recreate them, the more they break them.

At the moment there are a lot of people who want the old days back. They're going to be sadly disappointed.

I'm having a rare burst of optimism (it'll wear off when the coffee does ). But the idea of somehow leap-frogging the changes and getting there before the Brexiteers does warm my cockles.

A bit.

How that translates into real life .... well a PAYG sort of approach to your political parties might be an idea ? After all, we're encouraged to switch energy suppliers. Why shouldn't political parties be subject to the same laws of the market ?

Just musing (this is good coffee !) I think people vote Tory because that's what they want to be whereas people vote Labour because that's how they see themselves. Suggesting polling figures alone are missing a dimension which may explain their flaws

Nothing legal, but I note with interest one of the contributors thanked is a "Mark DSouza", rather than D'Souza

He’s actually Mark Dsouza, which I’m guessing would have been derived from the Portuguese - so someone at some point dropped an apostrophe.

Actually @CendrillonSings post at about 7:330 this morning is right on the money. My sister is a committed remainer but will not even consider voting labour for exactly the reasons cendrillon says. She is far from alone - pretty sure DH feels the same. That can't be ignored.

@BigChocFrenzy - it's not only voting for Corbyn because of the Tory brexit. It's voting for him because of everything the tories now stand for and they have given us a clown for PM, who has an evil and despicable person behind him....

My sister is a committed remainer but will not even consider voting labour

So why doesn't she just vote Lib Dem or whichever party has a chance in her constituency?

I'm no fan of Corbyn but voters don't have a right to a Labour Party that represents one particular point of view. If you don't like Corbyn then don't vote for him.

My sister is a committed remainer but will not even consider voting labour for exactly the reasons cendrillon says. She is far from alone - pretty sure DH feels the same. That can't be ignored.

Its a shame that your family and partner is so rabidly right wing like cendrillion that they cant use critical thought to be able to distinguish bias in journalism

If you don't like Corbyn then don't vote for him.

Unless you live in his constituency you cant so what you're saying you cant vote for Labour, which policies do you feel wont help you

Each passing day shows how clever Ireland was to capitalise on the time the UK spent pissing about after the vote.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/10/08/virtual_irish_border_requires_data_and_tech_not_yet_available_mps_told/

Is worth a read - mainly for the comments which show there is an underbelly of pretty well informed people beyond the frothing.

Interesting DGR. I find it odd that tribalism in public is stronger than ever whereas actual voting patterns suggest it's weak in private. Having to pin your colours to the mast on social media (I know you don't have to, but people do) leads to the handy sample posts being provided by tribalists being amplified. Rather like few people care enough about your birthday to 'hope you have a day that's filled with wonderful things for you, and wish you love and happiness in EVERYTHING you do' but that's a message they're happy to put their name to if provided by Clinton Cards. When it comes to committing resources to a present, the strength of those words almost makes them less likely to actually buy some Old Spice and wrap it up.

Unless you live in his constituency you cant so what you're saying you cant vote for Labour, which policies do you feel wont help you

Some people believe that Corbyn is unfit to be PM and may withhold their vote on those grounds.

I'm not saying I agree with it (under the present circumstances I personally would vote for the best placed candidate who wasn't CON or BXP). But it's not a fundamentally unreasonable point of view.

Chris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
·
Oct 8
Did not expect this at all

In IFS pre-Budget analysis with investment bank Citi...

Corbyn-led labour government (ditch brexit) leaves Britain 5% better off than Johnson-led Conservative Govt (no deal) by 2022

5% = £110bn a year

I'll just plop that right here