Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

I'm angry at all the arseholes who are doing this to us.
But bojo and gove et al don't post on here trying to gain sympathy for their vile views.
I've written letters, e mails, donated to led by donkeys and gone on marches.
Wtf for?
This has become a cult. You can't reason with cultists.
We are damned to repeat history.
Those of who know your pre 2WW history should be as scared and angry as I am.

Bigchoc it's been my opinion for a long while that a GE (probably several GEs) will be required to settle this. I have never been in favour of a new referendum.

But the idea that a single GE this autumn will settle the matter for good is also highly improbable.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells France's Les Echos that any blame for a no deal Brexit would lie "in the British camp". Then says: "A Brexit without an agreement would lead to a collapse of the United Kingdom."

How long will it take for the collapse to happen?

I agree with your analysis re Leavers RTB. A lot of people were fooled for lots of different reasons. No need to point fingers at them.

I stopped reading at “magic marxist”.

Exactly why you’ve learned nothing, and will lose the next election.

For the rest of you, I was quoting and replying directly to GhostOfFrankGrimes, who is explicitly a Corbyn fan, FFS! I know most of the rest of you are only pro-Corbyn faute de mieux, not that the practical consequences of that position are any different.

My point stands - few people are going to vote for a party that openly plans to expropriate them personally, however bad a No Deal might turn out to be for the collective economy.

Very interesting long thread from @syrpis about possible GNU/ caretaker PM. One point about the leader is that maybe Corbyn shouldn’t want to be it.

Many on the Labour side say that it should 'by rights' be Corbyn. My sense is that it could be Corbyn, but that there are others who would be more likely to attract the necessary cross-party support. 17/
Moreover, I don't think that Corbyn should want it to be Corbyn. The caretaker PM will be painted by Johnson as the face of the remainer Parliament, the leader of the coup that sought to stop Brexit. 18/
If it is Corbyn, it will be easy for Johnson to direct all the vitriol his way. I think Johnson's task becomes much harder if, eg, it is moderate respected Tory rebel who asks for an extension and calls a GE. 19/
So... to sum up... the opposition need to sit down and determine when they will act, who the new PM will be, and what they will have a mandate to do. A lot depends on the extent to which they can agree. 20/
Even if they disagree profoundly, they should be able to agree on a process (involving a caretaker PM) to get an extension from the EU and call a GE. The alternative is leaving power in Johnson's hands. Which doesn't seem sensible... 21/21

mobile.twitter.com/syrpis/status/1179435456624234496

Perhaps the GNU leader should be a neutral elder who is not going to be involved in the GE in any way, so they can’t be tainted or accused of bias.

There's another layer as well. It's not just about choosing Corbyn or Johnson. My 80 year old stepmother, who has been Tory ever since I knew her, is now saying that it's such a mess that she will never vote for them again.

I've got no idea who she will vote for - and I'm not sure she does either right now - but for her it is not one cult or another, just a reaction against. She lives in the heart of Cameron Cotswolds, and I suspect is not alone in her views.

A lot of labour MPs seem to be electioneering in practice on the basis that Corbyn will not be around for much longer.

If labour win Corbyn's safe for the duration and the next leader is probably from the same stable. If labour lose, there is likely to be a pretty imminent battle for the soul of the Labour Party which could result in a slightly more centrist leader, or a split.

Btw it doesn’t mean I’m not angry or scared.

It’s just that I have done the ‘Im scared shit for the future’ for so long now that I have dissociated from it. (And I have planned my escape if need be)

My 80 year old stepmother, who has been Tory ever since I knew her, is now saying that it's such a mess that she will never vote for them again

She lives in the heart of Cameron Cotswolds, and I suspect is not alone in her views

I'd like to think that, but I live in one of the safest Tory seats (not in the Cotswolds) in the country and I still think the "anything in a blue rosette" holds sway here, even though the demographic is shifting a little bit and Labour came 2nd last time rather than the Libdems. But not enough. And our MP is ERG-lite, so not a moderate (well maybe "lite" is moderate these days).

I still don’t understand why anyone with any intention of pursuing a political career would want to be a caretaker PM in a GNU, least of all Corbyn who clearly has achieved a belated sense of personal destiny over the last couple of years. Harman and Clarke would be my preference.
Extraordinary that we on the thread are still being beaten round the head as lefty Corbyn lovers when it’s clear so few of us are. Having said that, there is no comparison between well intentioned and fairly standard Leftist politics and the extreme right wing economy wrecking intentions of the current Govt and advisors.

I’m currently keeping my head down and speaking French as well as I can as I find I’ve totally forgotten the small amount of Spanish I ever knew. It’s embarrassing to be British when you see the view from outside.

Does anyone know how the Kinnock amendment for the WA to come back to the HoC can happen ?

I agree, misti
There is no magic bullet to kill off the Brexshit madness, because those behind it have far too much at stake and have whipped up nationalist emotions that are difficult to reason with.

However, within a few years - e.g. after a full 5-year term of a Labour / Coalition govt - demographics will have changed sufficiently to make it v unlikely Leave could win another ref
BUT
with FPTP they only need the English Nihilist Party to win 35%, maybe even 31% of the vote, to Invoke again

If there is a hung Parliament, maybe we can limit the power of this nationalist minority:
I hope that the other parties make the price of their support that the first bill is to make PR for all GEs - and votes for 16-year-olds
No referendum on it, just do it as the first thing, or lose C&S.

Obviously, neither Tory nor Labour would bring in PR if they win a working majority.

As King'sAssassin has pointed out, the route to replacing Corbyn travels through a devastating GE loss and - consequently - No Deal Brexit.

I'm not prepared to let that happen, even though I'm one of those who would like to see a different Leader.

Consequently, I just buckle up, remind myself that Sadiq Khan is Mayor of London & work to avoid a GE victory for the most awful government I have ever seen.

Life is full of constrained choices. I guess it's why we find pleasure in those small moments of seemingly unrestrained choice - such as spontaneous purchasing of a t-shirt we really like, or getting first choice of a selection box of biscuits: a brief shadowing of what it must be like to plunge into an existence where all our hopes & dreams are realisable, & we can pick any and/or all of them.

Anyway, I think Red is correct about creating a welcoming space for wavering Leave voters. Not just here, but everywhere.

thecat - I always agree with you, you speak such sense.

Found your last post v moving - and spot on.

I thought the idea that someone had a few threads back for Lady Hermon to be the leader of a GNU was bloody brilliant : an independent, a NI unionist who is actually trying to represent the people of NI (and calling out the DUP for the fact that are not doing so) and retiring next GE.

Won't happen though

I don't think it's quite as bad as that Cat. I think there's quite a realistic scenario that there is another hung parliament which stops no deal (and more or less anything else).

Q about whether that would be enough for either of the main parties to change tack but I do think there is a very small glimmer of hope there.

I otherwise agree with you completely and offer another sad squeeze of solidarity

Hester I partly agree with that, in that I think that PM of a GNU would be a poisoned chalice for Corbyn.

But I also think this isn't really about Corbyn, it's about the succession. The people who have gained power in the LP are reluctant to give it up, and I think they fear that letting another Labour politician become PM would return power/influence to the moderate wing of the party.

I am absolutely not a Corbyn fan at all. We run a small manufacturing business under normal circumstances I wouldn’t vote for him. These are not normal times. If the choice is a straight one between a Labour Government and a ‘no deal’ Brexit it’s Labour all the way.

In the case of a ‘no deal’ Brexit this Conservative Government has done nothing so far to demonstrate it can dig us out of this mess of its own creation.

In fact judging on the comments from No10 over the past few days it has persuaded me that they are more than capable of making matters even worse.

I agree with you too cat!

BBC reporting a special sitting of the House on Sat 19th Oct.
R4 News at 9am said it was for if no deal by then, to vote on No Deal or Revoke. Didn’t mention WA...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49984367

Just read an article on the Guardian about No Deal which says in the event of No Deal I won't be able to sell services outside of my country of residence (I'm a Brit in the EU). Most of my customers are in my country of residence (Spain) and I've applied for Spanish citizenship, but it's a hugely long process with a massive backlog, so if there's a no deal exit this month that doesn't help me.

What do you think the chances are of a crash out this month? I also have an irish passport but I only got it 3 years ago so all my residency details are as a Brit. I'm wondering whether to try to get my residency card changed to say Irish too.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/08/travel-trade-phone-bills-and-immigration-no-deal-brexit-plan-released?fbclid=IwAR2G7kyyRMK9S3lZWaGU8ZQAFZMG2NmYzqTJJQsHaL3fVna1AmyDcGJ08Ws

"Britons living in the EU who trade services such as accountancy, translation services and architecture will not be able to continue to do so outside the country of their residence unless they have acquired such a right through alternative routes such as citizenship."

Constitutional lawyer’s explanation on Government’s obligations under the Benn Act and the legal response to attempts to frustrate it:

ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/10/09/jeff-king-the-prime-ministers-constitutional-options-after-the-benn-act-part-i/amp/?__twitter_impression=true