Helene von Bismarck@HeleneBismarck
People should start considering the possibility that
the EU will not necessarily do what either Johnson or Parliament want them to do .....
Andrew Duff@AndrewDuffEU
The scoop of @JGForsyth is very helpful in clarifying minds in Brussels about what the EU 27 should do at #EUCO next week.
Unanimity on wanting to conclude the Brexit circus as soon as possible.
The EU wants neither to trap the UK in the EU nor to expel it against its will.^ 1/
Leaders are being advised to avoid pleasing either Johnson (who wants no extension)^
or the Commons (which wants January).
So they will do their own thing and
offer only a SHORT - and final - extension (November) in order to put no deal legislation in place. 2/
< imo, final push from the EU to choose between May's WA and No Deal >
Such a short extension will pat the ball back into court of the UK parliament,
which (under the Benn Act) has to decide whether to accept it or not.
Learning from its two earlier extensions, EUCO knows that a LONG extension (January or more) will prolong the EU's crisis; ... 3/
relieve pressure on MPs to do a deal;
< yet more dithering & avoiding choices >
and encourage the Johnson government to diverge further from the acquis.
Nobody believes a general election will resolve the crisis,
leading either to another hung Commons with parties even more split than now, ... 4/
or to a majority nationalist government.
So unless @BorisJohnson has the wit to return towards May's customs deal in the next week,
get ready for Brexit day on 30 November
< also, shortages & chaos in the Christmas run-up
puts maximum pressure on UK govt,
both to avoid No Deal and, if it happens, to cave in & sign up to EU preconditions asap next year >