Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

That cunning plan for Farage or another Brexshitter to be Commissioner: won't work

The EP can veto any or all proposed Commissioners
Each has to be approved by the EP in a vote

Just last week the EP vetoed the Hungarian and Rumanian nominees
and would certainly veto any Brit nominee with a record of Brexshitting

None of other newspapers leading with Brexshit.

BigChoc This is purely out of self indulgent curiosity. You've often said you're centre right or not on the left, things like that, but equally I've seen you praise things like tenants' rights in Germany. It would be only left wing politicians in Ireland who would put forward proposals for stuff like that. So I would love to know what you mean by right. Or not left. Feel free to tell me to feck off!

Extension = Farage as UK EU Commissioner and a plan to vote against the next 7 year EU budget apparently

Damn, that's ... actually quite tactically brilliant. Utterly neutralizes Farage's attacks on Boris for extending, and if it came to it would put Farage into the kind of high-profile wrecking position of which he's always dreamed. The EU wouldn't like that one little bit.

Maybe they might stop saying "No" to everything once we start saying "No" to everything...

It doesn't matter who backs the fucking batshit deal if the EU says (unsurprisingly) that it doesn't fly. Dear god.

And Times say Johnson won't resign and will dare the Queen to sack him (this totally contradicts the Telegraph which suggests he will extend and install Farage. Times says he won't extend and will cause a constitutional crisis).

The beauty of Brexit is that journalists can just make up improbable shit and get away with it, because the news cycle is so short and because everyone knows the people they are sourcing this crap from are either insane or compulsive liars.

Brenda v BoZo. Who'll win?

There's only one way to find out...

From the FTPA, BJ can't just recommend any old person he wants to replace him as PM:

That person has to have the "confidence" of the HoC, i.e. needs to be supported by a majority of MPs
AND in practice must be an existing MP

Legal opinion I've read:

If the Opposition believe they have a majority (321+) votes for a PM, then if BJ / the Privy Council refuse to recommend this person to HMQ,
the Opposition would probably use "Humble Address" to directyl request she do so

If noone has a majority of votes within 14 days, then there would automatically be a GE.

some GE2017 Remain Leave voters thought that supporting Corbyn May would either prevent No Deal or cancel ensure a good Brexit altogether deal.
Instead But they voted for the ERG, which kept May in power but in a crippled position that made it impossible for her to pass the WA, which led to the rise of Boris, which could in fact produce No Deal, which May herself would never have permitted.
In that eventuality, those voters should feel more than a little silly.

Fixed that for you, Cendrillon.

@Ballyhoo I'm dead centre politically in the UK, on those 2D plot tests
but the UK centre is to the right of the centre in Germany and most other EU countries

In Germany, I voted last EP elections for the CDU, which is centre-right for Germany
I nearly voted instead for the SPD, centre-left - it was a v close decision, swung by my admiration for Merkel
Next time, if I am eligible, I may well vote SPD

As regards tenants rights, subsidised childcare etc:
These are part of the "social contract" in Germany, which all parties, except mayb the fringes, support

This is where the "Christian" part of the CDU comes in
The CDU are centre right or - under Merkel - even centre in German politics, nothing like the UK Tories
I do find their social conservatism grates, hence why I'll probably vote SPD next time, after Merkel has stepped down

Fixed that for you, Cendrillon.

Fixing my text won't fix the facts, I'm afraid - you know that particular piece of reasoning is spot on. The best thing for everyone except Revokers and socialists would have been a substantial May majority in 2017.

If the Opposition believe they have a majority (321+) votes for a PM, then if BJ / the Privy Council refuse to recommend this person to HMQ, the Opposition would probably use "Humble Address" to directyl request she do so

Unless he's lying, McDonnell just explicitly ruled out Labour ever supporting any candidate other than Corbyn for PM. Will Corbyn get 321+? I rather doubt it, in which case...

" actually quite tactically brilliant."

NO, quite ignorant of the EU

because as posted above, the EP can and does veto candidates for Commissioner
No way they'd vote for Farage or any other Brexshitter

because as posted above, the EP can and does veto candidates for Commissioner

Damn it! But, much more importantly, can anything prevent us from interposing our veto on the main 7-Year Budget if we're still in the EU?

This is a must read, from (ex) leaver Peter Oborne.

I have attended every single Conservative Party conference since 1992. This one is the only one where I’ve felt scared.

www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/oborne-uk-brexit-crisis-dominic-cummings-october-31-deadline

Always was a sure way for BJ to avoid extending:

resign and gamble that the Opposition can't agree on a replacement

He's said he would never resign BUT he's an incorrigable liar

Hence why I wondered if he might visit his mate Trump for a couple of weeks, until No Deal has happened

However, Jo Maugham has a court case asking that the court request an extension if the PM won't
It is possible in Scottish law - and probably Lady Hale will be asked to decide on appeal - for a court to appoint someone to take action that the normal authority refuses to do

"can anything prevent us from interposing our veto on the main 7-Year Budget if we're still in the EU?"

Cendrillon No problem for the EU if the extension is only until 31st January, as suggested
Nothing important for the Uk to block.

The budget needs to be decided by late June, although the signoff could be delayed a bit if need be
However they'd prefer to debate a couple of months in peace, so say 1 March would be the deadline

Ah ok, makes more sense now. Thanks for the answer. I think it does depend a lot on the country you're in because that's what you're measuring yourself against if you get me.

Thanks Big Choc. I wonder why having a social contract in Germany isn't a terrible far left lunacy thing.

Maybe I’m being blonde here, but my idea of “left” based on my Italian background is much, much to the left of the British left. Leaving aside for a moment the fact that Labour is not just Corbyn, and that the man is not immortal and there’s just so much damage one can do in a fixed term (unless this involves crashing out, of course)
Labours policies would never transform overnight London into Caracas or Manchester into Cuba. Without being too leftish, but for instance I’d welcome a bit more incentive for pension payment, I’d have liked to have more than a month’s notice when I was a tenant (how the deuce does a family with kids in school find another place to live in a month???), I’d really really love to see more investment in state education and see university fees more aligned to a) the EU counterparts; b) the value they give. Currently it’s insane that you still pay 9.250£/y to get a degree on history of moviemaking at the University of Whatever and Chemistry at Cambridge, come on....
In comparison, I utterly despise the way social housing is run and managed, to the point that I would even abolish it...(impossible)

Anyway

I caught up with Newsnight for yesterday and the day before. Scary, scary stuff.
Not sure how’ll fall asleep now.

Also, if a member is openly trying to wreck EU business, then the EU would start Article 7 proceedings to remove privileges, including voting

However, that takes months, so assuming they give only an extension until 31 January, no time for this and no need anyway

Unless there is a GNU, I wouldn't expect a further extension after February

ballyhoo Even the AfD isn't against tenants rights
It's just not something any politican would dare suggest

(A former lord justice of the SC stated with no hesitation that THE COURT can write to ask the extension if the Pm doesn’t do it. I’d be technically “on his behalf” and it’d be the legal route to go. HE would be in contempt of court only if they’d have given him an order and he had refused to obey)

Same for uni fees, which are either zero or v low, depending on course

Misti I disagree with Peter Oborne on only one thing:

It is the English Nihilist Party, not the English Nationalist Party

Also, his article is a bit out of date wrt this

"I believe it’s entirely possible that Johnson will strike a deal when he meets European ministers at the EU Council meeting on 17 October"

The EU has stated that BJ's deal is not going to happen
and I doubt if he could now U-turn and accept May's deal

He's completely right about the danger we face from these Tory nihilists
AND that the next few weeks may determine the next several decades

No Deal Brexit will be a disaster felt for a very long time