Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

"Any extension should be for minimum two years"

The EU will state what extension - if any - they are prepared to give
and whether it is conditional on e.g. a GE being called

Remainers warned during the referendum campaign about the possible consequences of Brexit for NI

Leavers shouted down the warnings as Project Fear

PMK with a mention to @RedToothBrush that most of the books in my bathrooms are cartoons and trivia that can be glanced at while contemplating ones knees

Maybe not a good idea for BJ to show the EU, USA, China, India ....every country he'd have to negotiate with after Brexit
that he blows hard and then caves in

Lewis Goodalll@lewis*_goodall

Before and after.

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

By pure coincidence, PM has no PMQs, & need give no interviews, before 19 Oct – leaving it to his official spokesperson to explain

Why stand in London though? It seems completely the wrong thing for him.

I thought that initially but I've been thinking about this and:

• Elections which are foregone conclusions are bad for democracy. Stewart's participation as an independent gives voters a choice and perhaps opens the door to an honest (less partisan) examination of Sadiq Khan's record.

• Stewart is a very committed one-nation Tory (his party has left him not the other way round) and I think he would in other circumstances have approached other ex-Tory independents to recreate a One Nation party. But breakaways just don't work in the British FPTP system: he has to find another way to build a base first. Perhaps this is it.

Anyway, I think this is an interesting and potentially smart move. Is he the UK's Macron? Time will tell. If I was still in London my inclination would be to support Sadiq but I'd be willing to give a hearing to Stewart's manifesto.

Yep

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

In the history books, this'll be called The Era of Mortification.

If he still wants to build a new centre party, as he said before,
then winning London is maybe his best chance to build a political base to start from

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/you-have-one-week-to-make-a-better-offer-eu-tells-boris-johnson-tn5nc6k5d

Brussels has given Boris Johnson one week to make his Brexit plan acceptable
or European Union leaders will refuse to discuss it at a crucial summit this month.

iirc Varadkar hasn't even suggested this before

• it'll infuriate the DUP, but he may be past caring about that

www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-deal-hopes-vanishing-as-dup-lays-into-taoiseach-38561722.html

At a press conference in Sweden, ^ Mr Varadkar did theorise that a united Ireland would be one way of keeping an open Border on the island.^

He told reporters there were now polls which suggested there was a majority for Irish reunification, as he offered it as one of five possible solutions to the Brexit crisis

• and said it was one that would be acceptable to the Irish Government.

Kevin Doyle: 'With Boris Johnson plan doomed, all sides are limbering up for inevitable blame game'

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/kevin-doyle-with-boris-johnson-plan-doomed-all-sides-are-limbering-up-for-inevitable-blame-game-38561719.html

It might look like a game of Brexit chicken has broken out - but really it's just all sides limbering up for the blame game.

The EU's very reserved reaction to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's last-minute plan was all part of a well-choreographed effort to avoid an immediate bust-up.

Rory is reading the ruins in a way others aren't.

I was spoke to a local Councillor last year about a lot of things and he commented that his worry was thing locally were going to go the way of a massive wave of independents standing. He of course was for a traditional party - the LDs.

There had just been a local by election in an area, which should by rights, be prime LD fodder but was slightly more small town in its thinking and had a long history of being Labour.

It went independent, which shouldn't really have surprised anyone.

It's just a measure of how fed up people are of tribalism rather than trying to deal with and get to grips with issues.

I don't think Khan is a terrible mayor, but I do think he has fallen foul of tribalism at times, as well as being the victim of racism. He has very much played and promoted these culture wars - more than many MPs in my opinion.

So Rory standing for London Mayor as an independent? It's interesting because from what I got from friends was he was cutting through the tribalism. He was getting respect from friends who are cut from a wide range of backgrounds and political colours.

Johnson certainly launched himself as a major figure from the role and Khan is known internationally because of the attention Trump has given him.

My concern is about just how far down the culture war route Stewart will go. He has said things that make me think he's too into that identity as a liberal but he has form for substance and doing in a way other MPs don't.

What effect will it have on the election? That's a difficult one. Who does that benefit most? Him or someone else? Just how good with he be at campaigning?

I'm surprised at the move, but at the same time I also think it's a really sharp intelligent one which is very much on message with what people are actually saying...

Does the UK really need to Brexit to be able to ape the US ?

Seems we're managing just fine as things are:

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/04/baby-dies-in-uk-prison-after-inmate-gives-birth-alone-in-cell

There simply aren't the words. And I say that as someone whose probably responsible for a large proportion of the words in these threads.

It's interesting to ponder that while some countries move to extinguish any danger of the average citizen being in control is to simply install a one-party totalitarian regime, other countries are more subtle, and simply remove the danger that a vote will do anything.

I wonder if centuries hence it will be seen as a phase in some sort of progression ?

Or is all political life doomed to be circular, and we are slowly returning through feudalism to slavery again ?

Who was it who said man is born free, man dies free, yet all around he is in chains ?

The problem with anyone else as PM is that Labour have 247 of the 321+ MPs needed
The LDems have 18 MPs
The expelled Tories have 22 MPs

Could it be that last time the LibDems went into Coalition they were well and truly shafted, and don't want a repetition of that in what would realistically be a Labour Government? A GNU needs to be just that, with the best talent from all parties - even moderate Tories (if they still exist, but I expect Johnson would kick them out smartish.)

Reports have Barclay saying yes, they will send the letter, but we're still leaving so naaaaaaaar.

So what this seems to suggest is they will cease to recognise the A50 process and insist that we've left because we say so.

Is that a stampede of lawyer I hear?

The current cabinet truly are dwarves standing on the shoulders of giants
That still implies they are leveraging the height of giants to see far - I'd update this to something like:
The current cabinet truly are drips falling from the noses of giants

Who was it, and where was it from, who posted upthread about Cummings saying "expect to be in court" for the 2nd half of October???

Shocking that a baby died - IN PRISON, in the UK - because the mother was left to give birth alone

A private prison in which 4 women have died since July 2016

Bastards
Not prepared to pay for a woman in "advanced state of pregnancy" to be monitored every 10 minutes or so,
as is usual for someone so vulnerable - the baby, who had committed no crime

At the least, the mother should have had a panic button, with rapid response at the other end.

I would hope for charges of corporate manslaughter against the private prison, but my expectation is the usual "lessons will be learned" - which rarely are

Shocking that a baby died - IN PRISON, in the UK - because the mother was left to give birth alone

And LibDems are still pissing about with the font on their office door ?

Could it be that last time the LibDems went into Coalition they were well and truly shafted, and don't want a repetition of that in what would realistically be a Labour Government?

There doesn't need to be any formal agreement - nothing binding anyone to anything. It's not the best option, but it would leave all parties the option to simply refuse to vote for something they really didn't agree with. Much as two singles shacking up together. There's no marriage and no kids - either person can simply call it a day.

The only job, really is to avoid no deal Brexit.

I'm guessing the LibDems are having some sort of intense fantasy that they'd be able to Revoke from a Corbyn-less GNU. Which we all know is bollocks. But if that is really the case, then I'd rather vote Tory than have such delusional idiots anywhere near the levers of power.

No surprise we have a housing crisis
This has been going on for decades, even if not quite as badly as the last couple of years

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Eyepopping stat: @SkyNews and @IPPR research shows that just 1,309 affordable homes were built in the whole of rural England in 2017-18.

By way of comparison, there are nearly 17,000 people on the social housing waiting list in Gloucestershire alone.

I would hope for charges of corporate manslaughter against the private prison,

In the US, prison is a business, and has a deal with governments to be kept supplied with customers prisoners. Who are then a ready resource of unpaid unskilled labour.

www.ranker.com/list/companies-in-the-united-states-that-use-prison-labor/genevieve-carlton

Why do you think Priti Patel is so unpleasantly gloaty about locking folk up ? Why pay ESA when you can simply lock someone up and make them work for free ? You'd have to be an idiot not to.

I wonder how many Tory votes BJ will lose if he really asks for an extension.

Heil Commentariat are turning on him, 1,500 comments already
"Those who live by the sword ..."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7537149/amp/Boris-Johnson-faces-court-showdown-Article-50-extension.html

Farage making the most of it too, of course

Nigel Farage@Nigel_Farage

Boris said we would leave by October 31st “do or die”.

Why does he keep saying things that are not true?

I wonder how many Tory votes BJ will lose if he really asks for an extension.

Not many. The parallel thread in AIBU, and the depressing number of (presumably) woman quite happy to minimise his behaviour suggests that his hard core support is simply immune to reality.

He might lose the waverers a bit. But they're hardly natural Corbyn supporters anyway.

But we know how BJ is going to die.

He's going to lay down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow.