Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

Wake up Opposition and bloody do something!!

The LibDems and the Funny Tingers is whats enabling this, if the Tory rebels abstained because they wont vote for Corbyn, numbers wise where does that leave us? Other than Hoey, maybe Field I dont see many of the other Lexiters going for this new load of bollocks off Johnson

"Far right Eastern European governments leaning on Dublin"

The claims have been puzzling me:
what leverage do they have to lean ?

afaik, Ireland doesn't need or receive anything from Poland or Hungary

The only power that E European countries have is to veto an extension
(if they are prepared to piss of rEU shortly before budget negotiations which include subsidies for them)

However, reports from Ireland is that the Uk proposals are no better than what Ireland would have to do if there is a No Deal
So they'd rather have No Deal

(A future UK govt would almost certainly cave in and agree to the main WA demands, just to get any future trade talks,
whereas signing up to BJ's deal means the goods border would be permanent)

Rory S is standing for Mayor of London.

Rory Stewart: "If Boris Johnson gets a deal, my political career is over'

Rory Stewart: "I am running as an independent candidate for Mayor of London"

After 3 bloodyyears, the Tories have only succeeded in finding what their party and the DUP - plus a few Labour fellow travellers - want;
Nothing that is acceptable to the EU

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Forget the hype- the PM doesn’t have a “deal”.
The only deadlock he has broken is with himself.

My take on the extraordinary proceedings in Parliament yesterday.

https://news.sky.com/story/forget-the-hype-johnson-hasnt-made-much-progress-on-breaking-brexit-deadlock-11826814

Sometimes, the House of Commons acts as if politics ends at its doors.

Watching scores of mainly (though not exclusively) Conservative MPs rise to their feet on Thursday, in full self-congratulatory pomp, to praise the prime minister for "breaking the deadlock",
was quite the sight to behold.

Indeed, one EU source went rather further than my appraisal, they said it was "insane".

For the truth is, the only deadlock which has (arguably) been broken, is among Conservative MPs themselves.
....
Many, including some opposition MPs, like Frank Field, urged the prime minister to have a vote on his proposals now, to show how united the Commons might be.

Though there may be some symbolic power to such a ballot,
the Commons might as well vote on bringing the Eiffel Tower to London - as pleasant as it might be, it's not going to happen.

As one source in the EU told me, the PM's proposals are "a million miles away" from being acceptable.

notangelina This shouldn't need saying, but:

Rory meant a deal with the EU

Not between the Tory party and the DUP

Not good news if Stewart splits the London Remainer vote with Kahn - to let in a Brexiter Tory

^news.sky.com/story/forget-the-hype-johnson-hasnt-made-much-progress-on-breaking-brexit-deadlock-11826814^

"a sad illustration of the insularity of the cosseted and all too cosy world of Westminster,

drunk on the hype of its theoretical sovereignty,

straining under the weight of its history,
unable to ever quite internalise that its writ extends not nearly so far as it once did."

@BestIsWest

The childrens flu vaccine is a nasal spray so won't be causing other shortages as only children get that one.

Oh Dear Rory

Having told us what a proud Borderer you are, you want to come down and be our Mayor?

What is it with you arrogant Northerners? Remember Steve Norris?

"the Commons might as well vote on bringing the Eiffel Tower to London" -

I too can't understand why any Labour MPs are taken in by this "deal" (I posted a rant about this very topic yesterday )

I can understand Hoey because she is a DUPer who conned Labour into giving her a safe constituency.

But the others?

BJ has explicitly said that he wants a "hard" Brexit for the ongoing deal. He might say that he intends to retain workers' rights and standards - but why would anyone sane believe him?

The Eiffel Tower would look great on Sydenham Hill next to the Crystal Palace.

If we want to wargame an interesting future, howabout after the GE, there's still a hung parliament with the added deliciousness that the only way the parliamentary arithmetic for a PM to hold the confidence of the house stacks up is a PM that has to accept certain conditions on their premiership - notably who gets appointed to cabinet positions. With the FTPA ensuring there can't be a cut and run election to break the deadlock (even if the electorate would put up with it).

The end result would be a more US style system where Congress has a say in the Presidents appointments.

Meanwhile, skulking on grown-up legal forums, I noticed a couple of people suggesting that even were the FTPA to be repealed, it would not mean everything returns to the pre-FTPA state of affairs. Something about not returning powers to prerogative once they have been removed

I hope we are all strapped in - looks like we haven't even started the ride of our lives yet.

Shipman's new book reveals the bullying in the Brexiter regime:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/tim-shipman-s-fall-out-reveals-nastiness-behind-scenes-tory-tragedy

I heard plenty about the unhappiness of civil servants and ministers, but the scale of the discontent and the bullying described here still took my breath away.

In one typical incident, a civil servant and Philip Hammond share their distress.
“You’ve got more power than I do, Chancellor, why don’t you do something about it?”

^“I don’t have any more power than you do,” Hammond responds,
“We’re both stuck in this hellhole together."

DG There has to be a GE by May 2022
There is a serious risk that the longer the Rebel Alliance obstructs a GE - to delay Brexit - the larger BJ's eventual majority

I have always disliked the principal of the FTPA, which makes it more difficult to get rif of a govt.
It was designed by the LDems solely to secure them a full 5-year term in govt

However, it only requires 2 majority votes to force a GE, instead of 1:
If a majority of MPs want a GE, they can repeal the FTPA and then pass a vote for a GE

If there is a hung Parliament, then of course Opposition MPs can make demands on anything,
e.g. as the 10 DUP MPs both had a veto on the backstop and received a billion quid pork barrel bung

If Labour + LDems + SNP + Plaid have more MPs than the Tories, but not a majority,
then of course the Tories would be able to make demands

If the PM is not prepared to accept those demands, then they can refuse and let the Opposition call a VoNC,
then oppose any suggested Opposition PM, so there is a GE

It would be a question of whom the voters blamed for all this.
History suggests that in times of chaos that voters are quite likely to choose "strong" leadership

If a govt has a majority for some action (that doesn't break international law) then the courts can at most require them to have an actual vote

If this govt had a majority, it would just repeal the Benn Act

Blair had a majority and was hence able to create the Supreme Court

If the Tories win a majority at the next GE, they could replace it,
maybe a new court with a system similar to that in the US, say in which new judges are approved by HoC votes

That would enable the Tories to stack the first court with their choice of judges
Then the next time Labour come in .....

We could have a situation in which the highest court in the land is replaced after every GE
and the "law" changes too

DG There has to be a GE by May 2022

I wasn't suggesting anything about the timing of the next election - simply that it could in theory throw up a parliament which can constrain the PM much like the current arrangement is. The fact this could happen under FPTP which we were assured delivers "strong government" can be something for people to ponder on.

I have always disliked the principal of the FTPA, which makes it more difficult to get rif of a govt.

The principle was sound - the country has been damaged by governments being able to pull an election when it suits them which is gaming democracy however you want to look at it. I still agree with the principle. However as I've said several times, a lot of the warnings were ignored, and it's now clear that you can't tinker with the UK constitution without unintended consequences everywhere.

In this case, the FTPA has revealed the utter waste of space in the Monarch as any kind of bulwark of power. FTPA should really have come as a package deal with some sort of powers for the HoS - and if that means electing one; well .....

We could have a situation in which the highest court in the land is replaced after every GE and the "law" changes too

Vaguely reminds me of the diametrically opposing design criteria between passenger airliners and fighter aircraft.

Passenger airliners are intended to be stable come what may, meaning that in practice, the base design of the airframe is to keep the plane going in a straight line as much as possible.

Fighter aircraft base design is as unstable as possible, to allow for the turn-on-a-sixpence handling they need in flight.

What sort of government is best for the UK ? Rigid, inflexible and very hard to change course ? Or skittish, unstable, and able to react with lightening speed ?

Very bad news about Rory.

Also second the thumbs-up to Peter Hain in his interview on Today.
Articulate, passionate, intelligent and clear.

The current cabinet truly are dwarves standing on the shoulders of giants.

What we should have learned is that most voters choose what is (presented as) the simple choice

Add that to the majority, even among the young, for "strong" leaders

and I think these ideas would most likely result in a large Tory majority at the following GE

Our hair is on fire and were still arguing about should we save the curtains because of smoke damage smh

And if Corbyn equally fails to back down, he would be equally culpable....

Regarding LDs, their position is a bit more nuanced. Their reasoning appears to be based on the position that Corbyn could never command a majority (due to Tory rebels and Labour independents antipathy), and that someone else would be far more appropriate. I don’t believe they’ve ever said categorically they wouldn’t support JC as temp PM “even at a minute to midnight on 30th October”.

O'Neill says the government documents submitted to court state the Prime Minister will send a letter asking for an extension no later than October 19th.

Johnson is either lying to the court or lying to the public.

twitter.com/bbclornag/status/1180079013869608960?s=21