Boris’s Irish solution - is it workable?

[elprup]

It seems like it could be a viable solution to me, although I’ll admit that I’m by no means an expert on the subject. What do you think?

He'd have to get them to agree a no deal or ask for an extension

The Benn Act was intended to force UK PM to seek an extension no later than 19 Oct 2019 if a deal had not been made with EU. However, several points to be aware of;

EU is not compelled to agree to an extension.
All 27 EU members must agree.
Legal challenge on Benn Act might already be prepared?

Any agreed extension is to Jan 2020. So if no deal completed by then it is bag to square one.

Well, that’s the fatal flaw in the ‘no deal in the table as a negotiatin strategy arguement’ isn’t it Mistri?

It’s our worst outcome, it’s not the worst possible outcome for the EU.

My hope is that if th e EU refuses an extension that changes things significantly. Revoke at that point would have been good but I suppose they weren't going to add that in.

I think he has a very low chance of getting it through, both the eu and parliament to be honest, even if it did work.

As much as I dislike him I do agree with the point he made which is the Irish need to accept something needs to change. The status quo cannot remain if we come out.

He can't break the law, and if he does, then it's moot, the courts and parliament will act very quickly indeed.

We aren't leaving with no deal on 31 Oct. we either extend or this deal gets through. Right now it's more likely extend.

As for jan 31, no one can predict that.

So if no deal completed by then it is bag to square one.

As infinitum. I seem to recall endless extensions because leavers can’t get their shit together being one of the risk factors for triggering article 50 without a plan.

Not correct that “any agreed extension is to Jan 2020”. EU can propose, and Parlt can agree, a longer extension. This is a useful explanatory graphic on what the Benn Act means.

As much as I dislike him I do agree with the point he made which is the Irish need to accept something needs to change. The status quo cannot remain if we come out.

Why? Why do the Irish on both sides of the border have to pay the price for the English getting what they want again? Absolutely fair for both Ireland and NI to turn round and say this is a mess of Westminster’s making, you need to sort it out in away that is acceptable to us.

Not correct that “any agreed extension is to Jan 2020”. EU can propose, and Parlt can agree, a longer extension. This is a useful explanatory graphic on what the Benn Act means

So what prevents EU saying they want an indefinite extension? Remember UK pays around 1 Billion per month into EU. Does that not provide an incentive for EU to extend permanently?

Possibly nothing to stop that, but we’d have to agree to it.

I’m the completely unlikely event that the EU suggest that it’s never going to male it through Parliament.

Bluntness100 why the hell should Ireland suffer for Westminster being idiots?? Why can't they come up with their own solutions that don't screw the innocent parties over???

Absolutely fair for both Ireland and NI to turn round and say this is a mess of Westminster’s making, you need to sort it out in away that is acceptable to us

All EU members signed Article 50 in 2009. Hence all EU members accepted that any member may leave without a deal.

NI is part of UK and UK is a single member of EU. UK as whole voted to leave. That Scotland and NI as individual members of UK voted remain does not change the result.

If no deal is the outcome, then all Treaties and Laws between EU and UK lapse instantly. However, Ireland, as an EU member must follow EU border rules.

This is the conundrum. EU law vs GFA.

EU were not party to the GFA. However, the wording of GFA makes reference to EU policies and how both North and South are required to take into account changes in EU policies and any effect they may have on the GFA.

This did not happen as nobody ever thought any EU member would leave EU even after Article 50 was signed off in 2009.

Sick of hearing the B name.
Watch this space.

why the hell should Ireland suffer for Westminster being idiots?? Why can't they come up with their own solutions that don't screw the innocent parties over

Ireland were a signatory to Article 50 in 2009. So they were aware that any EU member, including UK, could leave without a deal.

Even the BIC (British Irish Council), that was formed in 1998 to safeguard the GFA, have overlooked the implications of Article 50.

Even when Cameron announced in 2013 there would be an EU referendum there was no action taken to develop a contingency plan.

All comes down to same basic assumption;

Nobody will ever want to leave EU

Who says it is worse?

Erm, everyone? Of course a hard border with Ireland is the worst outcome - nobody wants that! I’m not able to watch the video as I’m at work.

@Bluntness100 said

As much as I dislike him I do agree with the point he made which is the Irish need to accept something needs to change. The status quo cannot remain if we come out.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay replied

Why? Why do the Irish on both sides of the border have to pay the price for the English getting what they want again? Absolutely fair for both Ireland and NI to turn round and say this is a mess of Westminster’s making, you need to sort it out in away that is acceptable to us.

My question is what is the point of signing an international agreement (GFA) If one party goes on to do something which is against both the spirit and the letter of that agreement.

Suggesting 'suck it up buttercup' is just not good enough.

The UK government have not handled this well. No change there then.

Mysterytrip Britain also signed the GFA. Works both ways. They signed something they now want to rip up and pretend never happened. You don't get a do-over for a peace agreement.

It's a mess, no doubt, but we voted out. Which means Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland is part of the eu. Legally both countries need to protect their borders.

Right now there is no border protection as such it needs to change, there is no way round that fact unless we revoke. There simply isn't.

I voted remain, so wouldn't choose this, but the facts are the facts.

NI voted 56% to remain, they didn't ask for this shit.

The border belt they're proposing is all in remain voting areas of NI too.

But Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. as is Scotland. It was a U.K. vote.

I didn't vote for it either, so I didn't ask for this shit, and neither did two thirds of the British population if you count the eligible voters who did not vote,

But the fact still remains this is the situation we are in, a third of the population turned up and voted to leave and here we are.

All EU members signed Article 50 in 2009. Hence all EU members accepted that any member may leave without a deal.

I’m not sure how that’s relevant. We weren’t talking about whether we should be allowed to leave without a deal. It was about whether the Irish should just roll over and accept any deal the UK government puts at the expense of it’s citizens. It is not the responsibility of the Irish government to find a solution to a problem we caused.

I didn’t mention the results of the referendum in NI either. It is possible to honour the result of the UK wide referendum without completely shoving one part of the union under a bus. The problem is the arrogance of the uk government (and a significant portion of the population) in deciding that some parts of the uk are less important and can be sacrificed for their own gain.

@elprup - Sorry to post a DM link but it does have a good diagram on the issue:

Given your DM link suggests that Stormont be given a say over which rules Ulster adheres to, it's pretty obvious that their journalistic standards are pretty dismal. Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan might have some objections to being dictated to by Stormont..

It is possible to honour the result of the UK wide referendum without completely shoving one part of the union under a bus

How? I don't think anyone wants to shove Northern Ireland or thr Republic of Ireland under a bus, but how do you protect your borders? How? No one has been able to find a solution that's acceptable.

Mysterytrip Britain also signed the GFA. Works both ways. They signed something they now want to rip up and pretend never happened. You don't get a do-over for a peace agreement

Classic which came first, the chicken or the egg, and which prevails?

UK signed GFA in 1998 along with Ireland. However, they both signed Article 50 in 2009 that includes provision for no deal.

No deal means UK is no longer obliged to comply with EU laws, but Ireland must as Ireland remains an EU member. No deal also means that UK reverts to trade under WTO.

Another conundrum arises. EU law requires borders between EU and third countries. WTO is vague on border, but WTO have told both Ireland and UK they will no insist on hard borders.

As much as I dislike him I do agree with the point he made which is the Irish need to accept something needs to change. The status quo cannot remain if we come out

What? So the Irish just need to accept that peace is an acceptable price to pay for delivering Brexit and keeping the Tory party in power? After years and years of suffering and violence people in NI finally get to live in relative normality thanks to the GFA and now the aBritish think it's ok to bin it and NI is just collateral damage.