Westminstenders: Constitutional History

[RedToothBrush]

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

Innui No. The UK govt have not produced anything useable - they are just spinning that a deal is near

There is a big gulf between the EU and the UK on the backstop
And many Tories also oppose all the "level playing field" requirements in the WA, that stop their race to the bottom

Neither the heads of govt nor the EP would accept any weakening of the backstop - unless Ireland agrees

We should keep an eye on Dublin, but so far no sign that Varadkar will shift position

Maybe BJ's lightbulb moment in Brussels, that AA doesn't work as he thouht, will help

Still looks like the only possible deal is the existing WA, but possibly with meaningless cosmetic changes for BJ to save face
The HoC might pass that in the last desperate days before No Deal, or too many might still believe No Deal is a reset button for negotiations

• it is: the UK position would change from very weak to absolutely desperate

@RedToothBrush

Thank you for the @ SimeOnStylites thread.
Answers so many of my questions.
I’m very interested in the « incremental movements» and «pivots «
He discusses. Who knows which was BJ / Cummings will flip flop?

I am inclined towards a deal, as the DUP are starting to make noises and in that Tory mouthpiece, the DM, they just have a daily countdown. BJ friendly voters will not be happy with an extension.

From the thread Red posted, what I am in some ways frightened about is the “pivot” from BJ that will allow him to get a WA and then have his general elections where he can parade saying ‘See! I told you would be out of the EU by the 31st October’ and then win said elections.

5 years with BJ as a PM. That would be my idea of a nightmare tbh.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-cummings-cements-his-power-to-sack-advisers-m6q77gkxd?utm_source=Unica&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=james_RA_daily_fixed_timing

The old “model contract” from December 2016 said that “the responsibility for disciplinary matters rests with your appointing minister”. Now advisers must agree that “the responsibility for disciplinary matters rests with your appointing minister and the prime minister’s chief of staff”. A clause relating to advisers’ grievances and appeals against actions has also been updated to give the chief of staff a role.

Even though this would mean no No Deal which would be good the country obviously.

I think Arlene Foster said yesterday that the DUP could accept checks in the North Sea which is obviously different to a border in the Irish Sea as long as the constitutional position of NI remains unchanged. This is something that could be acceptable in Dublin and she had a previously unscheduled meeting with the Taoiseach last night.
This could be the ladder they needed to climb down

The problem with Arlene's position is its based on the Johnson idea which is none compatible with the GFA and the EU have already said won't work.

If it was based on the proposal as in the WA, then it would be progress.

But it isn't. So it's not.

What time does it kick off today?

Anyone listen to Cameron with Humphrys on R4?

It's Humphrey's last Today broadcast of course.

From the little I saw as breaking news late last night on Sky, the so-called shift from Arlene/the DUP just related to SPS (food/agriculture). They're the same ones that the penny has just dropped with BJ-Cummings won't be sufficient to avoid a border

Mother

I'll give Innui the benefit of the doubt that it's early and she meant to type Irish sea

Cheques in the North Sea? Is this to pay off the Icelandic fisherpeoples?? Asking for a nation, or three.

Anyone listen to Cameron with Humphrys on R4?

Given his incredible interview technique, you could have left "with Humphreys" out of that sentence, and the meaning would be unchanged.

10.30 start for the Supreme Court.

And in good news, Israel has no government for the next month or so
which means Bibi cannot do anything stupid
and Trump cannot talk to him
small mercies

That is something with Iran/Saudi/US stuff growing

Cameron was interesting on the Today programme today. Took some responsibility for the Brexit mess.

Hello, joining in for the first time - have been reading for a bit and am very grateful.

At the moment I don't have anything cogent to add as have a cold and earache, but hello.

Jennifer Cobbe @Jennifercobbe
If Private Eye is to be believed, she wasn't misled at all. She knew the real reasons for prorogation and was on board with pretending it was about a Queen's Speech. Even suggests she helped come up with the idea.

Arlene is seeing the writing on the wall.

One has to understand there is still a lot of infrastructure going on in Northern Ireland that is funded by EU money. Mainly, road upgrades (which are huge!).

By the by, most UK car insurance covers you for travel on the island of Ireland. Don't listen to car hire people when they try you tell you this isn't the case.

I don't quite know what to make of the mini monologues in the interview. After years of relative silence, of course the timing of Cameron speaking out coincides with his book publication.

But it says something when even Cameron, even C.a.m.e.r.o.n seems somehow preferable to the current renegades.

I know that Cameron's admitted mistakes were causative of what will probably be the the next 50 years of our nemesis.Yet somehow he seemed more statesmanlike and authentic. That I thought that of Cameron can only show how very bad the current cabinet are.

PMK
(no real cat available, but if I tell you often enough that this is a real cat, and refuse to answer questions about it, will you eventually believe me?)