The Columnist @ SimeOnStylites
1. As another deadline looms, there is considerable speculation and disagreement about the likelihood of a Brexit deal.
But what are the principle negotiating dynamics and where might we look for the way out of the labyrinth?
THREAD
2. For obvious reasons, attention is focused on the Irish backstop.
We can debate the merit of the news and commentary swirl (sourcing quality, spin, bias (wilful or not)) but all view should be treated with healthy scepticism.
3. It might be better to focus on the logic of the overall situation, from which it is reasonable to draw the following tentative conclusions.
- A deal is more likely than a month ago
- A deal remains very unlikely
NB these views are not mutually exclusive
4. As a result, any view that suggests a deal is either...
- Going to happen, or
- Impossible
...Should be heavily discounted.
(There’s a tendency to look for 100% ‘results’. Instead, perhaps consider the negotiating dynamics lead to 75% / 25% outcomes (in the EU’s favour))
5. Why is a deal more likely than a month ago?
- The end of Oct looms
- Almost everyone prefers deal to no deal (UK factional exceptions may apply)
- Both parties prefer a deal to no Brexit (esp the UK govt)
- The UK has shifted from rejecting the WA to focusing on the backstop
6. As a result, a negotiation window has unsurprisingly appeared and there is a greater urgency to Brexit discussions.
It is also not surprising to see signs of incremental flexibility - an example on the EU side is the emphasis on the principle of the backstop.
7. BUT, a deal remains very unlikely.
- There has been no material change to the EU’s position
- The UK govt position remains that the substance of the backstop must change materially
- The UK govt has yet to produce a formal proposal
8. The interesting question is what would make a deal more likely.
We can discount the probability of the EU‘blinking’- this is not a credible view given the structural imbalance.
If a deal emerges, it is more likely to come from the UK govt shifting its position - the pivot.
9. But why would the Johnson govt make this painful move?
The answer lies in the new govt’s raison d’être - to leave the EU on October 31 “Do or die.”
And the successful passage of the Benn Bill.
10. Put simply, unless the govt negotiates a deal with the EU, the Benn Bill means there will very likely be another Brexit extension and the govt will have failed in its principal objective.
11. As a result, the key deal dynamic is whether the Johnson govt thinks it will do better at a General Election, following either:
(i) A Brexit extension (the Conservative Party versus Parliament etc), or
(ii) A major pivot to enable a deal (we delivered on our promise etc)
12. (NB And even if there is a pivot it will not be at all straightforward for a deal to pass the HoC)
13. Either way, Brexit watchers should search for signs of a pre October 31 deal becoming more likely NOT IN Brussels, Berlin, Dublin or Paris, BUT IN Westminster.
/ends
I don't necessarily agree but a logical thread
Interesting he focuses on the noises out of Brussels rather than Westminster too.
Another point about British journalism is our national obsession with personality over and above any substance. It definitely is a failing in Brexit reporting.