Westminstenders: It's like a bloody aviary

[RedToothBrush]

From Flamingos to Yellowhammer and Black Swans.

The Tory Remainer is now a Dodo. Instead the party in inhabited by disaster capitalist Vultures. Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, has been labelled by the right wing press as a Chicken. The SNP would very much like Boris Johnson to be a Jailbird. The LDs are keen to sing like Canaries about the contents of BlackSwan. The Br

And the Tower of London is starting to get very jumpy about the whereabouts and location of its Ravens.

I would not, however, advise eating urban wild pigeons if things get desperate, from what I know of their health.

Interesting analysis here of Johnson’s chance of winning Labour leave seats - suggests that it doesn’t look that great, but also that the Conservatives may not lose too many in London.
sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/13/the-conservatives-are-failing-to-make-headway-in-the-brexit-supporting-north-and-midlands/

I’m not sure that I understand these numbers that are being quoted for the numbers who voted for and against no deal in 2017. This is from the Conservative manifesto:

We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and allies across Europe.

A ‘orderly’ Brexit is the same as a deal, isn’t it, so don’t you need to add the Tory voters to the numbers voting against no deal?

Ah, that clean break .... in some pay packets:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/10/mini-workers-face-two-weeks-unpaid-leave-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit

The German carmaker is ready to close the Cowley factory for at least a fortnight from the 31 October Brexit deadline
if BMW has problems importing components for vehicles, its
chief financial officer Nicolas Peter said.

The shutdown could stretch to more than three weeks....

Cowley’s 4,500 workers would go unpaid because their holiday allowance was used up in April
when BMW carried out a planned shutdown of the plant for a month after the original Brexit deadline of 29 March,

Thanks blackeyedgruesome
She's feeling rough today as she had her flu jab yesterday.
Hope your appr comes through very soon (I was in the same boat this time last year...)

appt even

re retired Law lord Sumptin:

Antonis Kastrissianakis@kastrissianakis

Sumption wrote Keith Joseph’s ‘1974 Edgbaston speech,
which was generally thought to have doomed Joseph's chances of becoming Leader of the Conservative Party’.

For those not ancient enough to remember this, it's what IDS wanks off to:

https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/101830

"our human stock is threatened.

A recent article in Poverty, published by the Child Poverty Action Group,
showed that a high and rising proportion of children are being born to mothers least fitted to bring children into the world and bring them up.

They are born to mother who were first pregnant in adolescence in social classes 4 and 5.

Many of these girls are unmarried, many are deserted or divorced or soon will be.

Some are of low intelligence, most of low educational attainment."
< now they've learned just to think it, not say it >

flouncyfanny

Scottish law applies for the Scottish appeal.
English law applies for the English appeal.

As a result it is theoretically possible that the SC will decide the prorogation is unlawful in Scotland and lawful in England - upholding both judgments on appeal.

If so it renders it unlawful for the UK as a whole - because if it is unlawful in any of the jurisdictions it can’t be lawful for the UK as a whole.

Interesting Eye voter turnout will also have a massive say in this. Some of those Leave Labour seats had high turnout for the referendum but much lower for the 2017 election.

Could Johnson tap into that group of people who voted in the referendum but wouldn’t usually bother in an election ?

HMQ's location at the time would be a really handy quirk of the system ....
which would illustrate how daft it all is !

Was wondering if the BBC would finally catch up with this.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-49690325

There was a poll or two showing predictions after Brexit / after an extension

The Tories were much lower after calling an extension
- but no poll yet on what happens if the Opposition take over and request one.^

BJ in a "suffering Brexit hero" GE won't be the shoo-in they hope, but still likely to be much better - keeping most Tories from voting BXP - than if he calls an extension

JC's chances look poor too, fighting on several fronts and well, just being the bogeyman for many

A hung Parliament looks most likely...

but will that be able to decide anything at all ?
It would need MPs ready to cooperate, if need be to rebel against their own party
There'll be hardly any - or zero - Tory rebels probably, after standing on an "No Deal if necessary" manifesto

Meanwhile, the political vacuum, the large hole where a feasible Brexit policy should be,
is worsening the bitterness in the country

If it lasts another year or two, in a hung Parliament, then the following GE may see a big BXP breakthrough

That's shocking basil - but sadly not surprising.

We are truly living in an Orwellian world, where the Ministry of Truth tries to change history. Long may we resist it.

Many thanks to flouncyfanny for a brave and detailed attempt to explain common law ... but I still feel as boggled as ever ... probably because not only am I not a lawyer, but I also have no idea how non-UK legal systems work (DF just rolled his head when I asked years ago "how does the law work in Italy" ...)

However, I'm sorry if this paints me in a bad light, but my dismay at still not grasping common law is offset by a slight schadenfreude at Wetherspoons woes with my sympathy entirely with the employees and not at all with Dim Martin, who can Fuck Right Off.

I repeat my observation/question of yesterday: is there something in teh air (or water) ? All of sudden not only are we seeing feet of clay on Boris from what would normally be his cheerleaders. But second referendums have appeared from nowhere (yes, I know ....) and even a bank is allowed to tip a Corbyn government (on a leash) as good for business ...

There also seems a note of desperation from Farage of late ...

Glimmers of optimism from DGR? There really must be something in the water...

I shall cling to DGRs slight optimisn as a drowning person would cling to a life raft....

Whoever has the worlds smallest violin, please pass it along.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/13/for-the-record-signs-of-trouble-before-david-cameron-book-hits-shelves

...
Signs of trouble are already there. Some independent bookshops say they will not be stocking the £25 hardback, often out of deference to left-leaning or remain-backing customers. In the eyes of many, the chaos of the last three years will forever be linked to the hubris of the Etonian former Tory leader.

“We will probably get one or two people asking for it but I’m not going to make a big thing – we might get firebombed,” said Jane Howe, the owner of the Broadway Bookshop in Hackney.

Another indicator is pre-orders: the book ranked as low as 335 in the Amazon charts as recently as Thursday. Such a position suggests it may be on course for sales closer to those of Gordon Brown’s My Life, Our Times than Blair’s A Journey, which shifted more than 10 times as many copies as Brown’s in its first seven weeks.
(contd)

Glimmers of optimism from DGR? There really must be something in the water...

Let's not start sucking each others dicks yet

But there seems to have been a slight lighting change to the stage, so to speak. Whether it's part of something that was planned all along, or a sudden realisation from the media of how vulnerable they are to authoritarian regimes (it's under fascist regimes that journalists and editors most often go missing ...). Or just the experiences (and polling) of the past few days have woken some of the more moderates up and made them realise quite how precarious the position is ?

Or is it just Boris simply hasn't (and to be fair, never could have) lived up to the promises that people had vested in him during the Theresa May epoch ? With a lot of the Tory party imagining he was "just what the country needed" because in their tiny universe (well it has to be to fit into the tiny mind) what is good for the Tory party is good for the country ....

I don't know. Which is why I asked here . If no one else is sensing it then my meds are probably counterfeit .....

There does seem the be "things afoot"....

Coukd be very bad news, of course...

DGR. Nutshell, over-simplified explanation of common law: you use past cases and judicial precedent to decide what happens. It allows for subjective rulings and some odd (to those of us putting them into Court) rulings. The cases you follow are the ones from the highest Court. Though many are bog standard County / High Court (where they're heard depends on value).

Scotland does still use common law in making decisions, but the statutes they have are different. And they still use archaic legal language in proceedings where the English / Welsh Courts tend not to, unless it's a very specific legal phrase like res ipsa loquitor (the thing speaks for itself).

On the continent they use civil law which is basically a massive book which says 'If X happens, Y is the restitution'. (Or that's my understanding of civil law!) There is way less room for subjectiveness / Judge got out of the wrong side of bed-ness!

Is that clearer?

There's been a mood change occurring for a week or so, I think. But more pronounced in the latter part of this week, IMO.

Gideon was muttering about a second referendum in the Evening Standard last week. (His name wasn’t on the editorial piece but he is the editor)

I see now that if Johnson gets a deal he wants late night and weekend sittings of Parliament to get it through. Now just why has he prorogued Parliament? Not doing so, and going to Brussels to negotiate would have avoided this.