Westminstenders: It's like a bloody aviary

[RedToothBrush]

From Flamingos to Yellowhammer and Black Swans.

The Tory Remainer is now a Dodo. Instead the party in inhabited by disaster capitalist Vultures. Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, has been labelled by the right wing press as a Chicken. The SNP would very much like Boris Johnson to be a Jailbird. The LDs are keen to sing like Canaries about the contents of BlackSwan. The Br

And the Tower of London is starting to get very jumpy about the whereabouts and location of its Ravens.

I would not, however, advise eating urban wild pigeons if things get desperate, from what I know of their health.

Noword I agree, especially the latter part of the week.

Even QT this week was a bit more balanced.

I think common law will have to reside next to "playing the piano" as things for retirement.

Regarding mood shifts, I wonder if something has gone wrong ? After all if Boris had got his way, we'd be in the run up to an election by now. But we're not. And not only are we not, but we still have some constitutional questions that need answering that will define our nation - or nations - for the next millennia.

It's very easy to get disheartened looking at polls, and big numbers, but there is an actual reality that it doesn't take much to make a big difference at times. So maybe even a 1% shift in opinion somewhere can act as a lever to drive a significant shift elsewhere. Like with road traffic ... a 1% increase in vehicles can suddenly cause a 10% increase in journey time.

Boris' reception in Doncaster yesterday - and the fact he was allowed to be accosted by someone who didn't fall at his feet - seems to be something which shouldn't have happened, followed by the something that shouldn't have happened being reported on which in itself was something that shouldn't have happened

I also think that the message, Corbyn won’t last forever but this madness will has resonated with some people.

After all if Boris had got his way, we'd be in the run up to an election by now.

Having a long run in to the election was one of the things which undid May - although admittedly then because the election was official there was the period of purdah.

I’m not sure that I understand these numbers that are being quoted for the numbers who voted for and against no deal in 2017.

I agree Queen. Why are PPs quoting the 54% statistic not counting the votes for the Cons and their ‘orderly Brexit’?

Jesuis - on the last thread you mentioned knowing medics who had seen evidence to support the likelihood of the NHS being shut down within a few months of a No Deal Brexit. Are your friends planning on leaking this? If I had this sort of information I would be moving heaven and earth to get it into the hands of journalists (there are still plenty who would use it - Rosalind Urwin, C4 News, James O’Brien etc). There were reports on previous threads that BJ and Gove had said Brexit would be over if (the real) Yellowhammer documents were made public. Was this what they were referring to?

I’m getting increasingly stressed about the number of incendiary pieces of information people have apparently seen but which they do not seem to be in any great hurry to make public.

Rosamund Urwin - sorry.

I see now that if Johnson gets a deal he wants late night and weekend sittings of Parliament to get it through. Now just why has he prorogued Parliament? Not doing so, and going to Brussels to negotiate would have avoided this.

The irony is he can't unprorogue it

That said, for all this talk of a deal, what has actually been happening in Brussels ? I remain deeply sceptical ... I suspect it's more of a ploy to piss off/flush out Farage and the ERG contingent.

In fact, maybe Boris has his sights set on somehow simultaneously castrating the BXP/ERG gestalt allowing him to power on as "the man who saved the Tories". Because I'm sure Boris will have told himself in anyone can do it, Boris can.

That's a poll I'd crowdfund to see (actually that's a lie. I wouldn't. But just in case this post gets picked up by a Tory bot somewhere ...). The electoral chances of a Tory party with the ERG kicked out, rather than the moderates ? Because someone, somewhere will either have commissioned that poll, or extrapolated from other polls to answer the question. Forget Black Swan that's the report that needs leaking.

Oh well, lunchtime & catch up TV time.

The 54% is calculated by adding up those parties that specifically said that they wouldn't "No Deal".

That doesn't include the Tories as even though their manifesto said that they wanted an "Orderly" Brexit, they also said that "No Deal is better than a bad deal". So therefore they can claim () that people voted for them knowing that No Deal was a possibility.

Apparently, on page 36 of the Conservative manifesto, they said "we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK" - hence their claim that people knowingly voted for them realising that No Deal was an option

.....despite saying elsewhere (and repeatedly) in the document that they would deliver a smooth and orderly Brexit

But as we know, they speak with forked tongue

And their PM got a deal. A relatively good deal. They just didn't like because reasons.

It's all fine.

We have a spreadsheet...

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
The two most important officials in No10 you may not have hard of: Oliver Lewis and Nikka da Costa.

Mr Lewis is in charge of an enormous spreadsheet tracking no deal planning.

Ms da Costa has a plan to pass a Brexit day in 10 days flat after Oct 19.

t.co/A3z7EzPx2L

Red read my reply to DGR about English Common Law. (20.48 last night) it may give you a different perspective? dunno

Noted.

I need to sober up first mind
(this is not good for this time on a Saturday)

I wondered if, because the Queen was in Scotland when she agreed to prorogue parliament the SCOTTISH law would be applied

That thought had crossed my mind!!

True Bellinin

...but I draw your attention to the last sentence in my post

I do think that the fact that Queenie was in Scotland when the prorogation was requested is an interesting point....

...but nevertheless, the fact remains if one jurisdiction rules it illegal and the other rules it legal, then overall it is illegal One legal system is not superior to the other - if they were to rule that, then all hell would break loose!

As I understand it, the Supreme Court can only overrule the Scottish Law Lords if they got their interpretation of Scots Law wrong - and fortunately there will be two Scottish Law Lords sitting on the panel

If all that is true why did Amber Rudd leave.

All he had to do was flash her his spreadsheet.

Flouncy, yours was a very good history of common law, but I don't think it explained what it is though. Sorry! (You don't really study the history of law when you do law, other than very briefly during English Legal Method. Though people who do a full degree, not the conversion course like I did might have done more.)

"what has actually been happening in Brussels ? "

DG Impression in Germany is: nothing more than time-wasting.

imo, they aren't doing actual negotiations, because:

• any significant changes would require a new mandate from the 27 heads of govt - which definitely hasn't happened.
• negotiations have formal structure; this has not progressed past the freeform "having a polite natter" stage
• Barnier's team aren't there
• Frost's has only 4 people instead of Robbins' 50 people

#FuckoffScotland

Trend on Scotland is pretty popular on Twitter at the moment. Although mostly full of Scots saying they would be only too delighted.
Andrew Bigden MP apparently has no understanding that having different laws the Scots courts could come to a different legal decision to English ones without 'the elite' having put any pressure on anyone.
This stuff will be damaging way past Brexit.

Well Stephen Kinnock has furthered the movement for Welsh Independence. He’s pissed of several friends who live in his constituency.

Mr Lewis is in charge of an enormous spreadsheet tracking no deal planning.

Ms da Costa has a plan to pass a Brexit day in 10 days flat after Oct 19.

But is it a CUNNING plan?