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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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redchocolatebutton · 08/09/2019 15:31

I'm looking forward to 'Mumsnet - Westminstenders' the bestseller.

pmk

QueenMabby · 08/09/2019 15:32

PMK with a weary sigh. Thanks RTB, BCF and other regular posters - you’re all epic.
I swing wildly between wanting to hide under my duvet with my fingers in my ears, shouting “La, la, la, I can’t hear you” and wanting to head out into the streets, start throwing things and have a massive tantrum. Neither helpful, but still...

threadneedle · 08/09/2019 15:33

Another lurker thanking all the regular posters on these threads. I am Irish, in Ireland, observing with a mixture of disbelief and horror.

If you have 10 minutes to watch this video by DM arch Brexiteer it might surprise you, he says having visited the border he feels deep regret about voting Leave.

www.google.ie/amp/s/www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/journalist-peter-oborne-fears-he-made-terrible-mistake-voting-brexit-as-he-visits-irish-border-38471069.html

I would very much like Leo Varadkar to bring BJ to the border tomorrow, he needs to see the reality of what a hard border will mean

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 15:35

I'm looking forward to 'Mumsnet - Westminstenders' the bestseller.

Where is your ambition ?

Mumsnet - Westminstenders' the Musical Grin

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 15:38

I would very much like Leo Varadkar to bring BJ to the border tomorrow, he needs to see the reality of what a hard border will mean

What's in it for Boris ?

Driedlimes · 08/09/2019 15:40

@ChazsBrilliantAttitude

Thanks - I also started reading the CCA. From my v brief review it requires an emergency (which is defined) & limits legislation passed under it to that which is necessary to deal with the emergency.

If BJ attempted it, I'd expect an urgent & successful judicial review by anti no deal MPs (et al) on the basis that an attempt to legislate against the current extension legislation by using the CCA is an abuse.

I would also hope that the response would be an immediate GNU by the Rebel Alliance.

bellinisurge · 08/09/2019 15:41

Phew! Thanks Red.

prettybird · 08/09/2019 15:41

Random - from the end of the last thread, I hasten to point out that said guy is not a friend, just someone I had to deal with at the rugby club and the fact that he is a Rangers supporter was relevant for his particular opinions, because there is, unfortunately, a subset who do believe the idiocy he spouted about Ireland. I do know that not all Rangers supporters are like that. Personally, I dislike both Rangers and Celtic (even though I have friends who support them) for the sectarianism that continues to be encouraged amongst certain sections of their supporters and which blights Glasgow, eg today, Police officer injured at Republican marches in Glasgow (Two Republican marches and counter-protests Sad)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49620049

One of the reasons we successfully got ds involved in rugby from such an early age was to try to get him away from the whole Celtic-Rangers divide. Sad (but we created a rugby fanatic Grin).

I knew people at my old workplace who would refuse to sit in a green seat or a blue seat, it is so ingrained Shock

Singasonga · 08/09/2019 15:46

I stumbled upon a pro JRM fb group and the pure hatred spouted on there is shocking- they actually want to see Remainer MPs 'hung high'.

Well yes, that's been going on for a while now. Apparently these are "The People" for whom the PM wishes to break the law.

And there are still those who wonder why delivering the referendum result to appease these types should really be the least of our priorities.

ImNotYourGranny · 08/09/2019 15:46

I can't watch the news anymore. It's been very worrying all along but events have now taken a very dark turn. I am genuinely fearful for people back in the UK (not leavers, they deserve every bit of shit that comes their way).

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 15:46

Big difference between measures that have to be taken after the UK forces Ireland to choose between the GFA and the SM

  • with the penalty for the UK of No Deal

and actively helping the UK to get all it wants

If Ireland gives way, then the border checks will be permanent
^ and the DUP will have succeeded in their aim of wrecking the GFA^

whereas if the UK is forced to Leave with No Deal, then after the UK economy has fallen sufficiently down the cliff, the UK govt will be forced to concede the main WA terms,
including the backstop

Also, if Ireland caves in at the last moment, having all this time held up the other 26 members from a WA and having cost them billions .....
they will all be massively pissed with Ireland
(despite any of them saying through gritted teeth: "of course we understand")

Hasenstein · 08/09/2019 15:48

Apologies if this has been answered before (my brain keeps going 'Tilt'), but in light of reports that France might veto an extension (whether this is true or not is difficult to know), what would happen if the EU refuses to grant an extension?

Does the Kinnock amendment then come into play and would it inevitably lead to the WA being passed?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 15:49

Lewis Goodalll@lewis*_goodall

Source says “gap is widening” between the two sides, not getting closer.

To the point where even traditional allies, like the Dutch have run out of patience and given up.

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 15:50

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

QueenOfThorns · 08/09/2019 15:51

Thanks Chaz. 7 days makes me feel a lot better - presumably this was taken into account when they picked the date of the 19th for the Bill.

It would be a bit difficult to get your head round. This “serious damage to human welfare” that we’ve brought in emergency powers to deal with, well, it’s going to be brought about by the powers that have been invoked to deal with it Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 15:53

Hasentstein The EU might just do this to force the UK into a decision
It depends how long they are prepared to keep extending for Ireland

However, it is not certain that the WA would pass

Also, I'm sure Cummings / JRM will be hunting through the HoC rulebook to find tricks to delay it until too late
iirc The WA only comes into play after an extension has been refused, or not obtained
so maybe 22 October or later

Maybe fighting a court case objecting to extension might gain Cum those few days he needs

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 15:54

Apologies if this has been answered before (my brain keeps going 'Tilt'), but in light of reports that France might veto an extension (whether this is true or not is difficult to know), what would happen if the EU refuses to grant an extension?

"...we ... just ... don't ... know..."

It's pass the WA (and associated WAIB) in double-quick time, or crash out with no deal anyway. Which might be BJ/DC "masterplan" as it then makes all the consequences of no-deal "nothing to do with us guv" as we prepare for the next election.

In terms of likelihoods, the trick is to trace the path which ensures the UK is well clear of the tax-avoidance measures that are due to kick in the EU in 2020. Because that'll be the one "the people" will be guided down.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 15:56

Still just crossing out most of the WA, not actually replacing the backstop with anything

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall" target="_blank">Lewis Goodalll<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall" target="_blank">@lewis_goodall

Sajid Javid said this am that the govt has presented a new proposal to Brussels about the Irish border.

A senior EU source tells me that isn’t true:

“there were no new proposals.
They were promised last week, but nothing this week.

Just crossing out of text [from May’s deal].”

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 15:57

DGR maybe leo can find boris a ditch?

Dark thoughts.

I suspect (or would hope) that MI have already been alerted by the hard men that BJ would be under surveillance (which he will be). Because they will certainly want to ensure his well being as helping move towards a united Ireland.

Hasenstein · 08/09/2019 15:59

BCF

"iirc The WA only comes into play after an extension has been refused, or not obtained
so maybe 22 October or later

Maybe fighting a court case objecting to extension might gain Cum those few days he needs"

Then that is really worrying. Potentially 9 days before the deadline and the CCA gives you 7 to do practically what you want. Any court action to counter these moves would inevitably be reactive and perhaps too late, as Cummings well knows from the Leave campaign skullduggery. Once the damage has been done, it can't be undone.

Hasenstein · 08/09/2019 16:03

DGR

"In terms of likelihoods, the trick is to trace the path which ensures the UK is well clear of the tax-avoidance measures that are due to kick in the EU in 2020. Because that'll be the one "the people" will be guided down."

I've been harping on for ages that the ATAD is the real bugbear for the ERG and their non-parliamentary associates. "Follow the money" is as apt as ever!

Mistigri · 08/09/2019 16:04

France will not veto an extension. I think Macron's aim is to move EU opinion against repeated extensions, but this extension will be granted, because it's obvious that a GE is going to happen. Very hard to say what happens after that because it depends on the election result, and opinion polling is all over the place (plus national polling is of limited use anyway).

Driedlimes · 08/09/2019 16:06

I don't see Varadkar caving in.
He's likely to face an election soon. The optics of his party (FG) doing a deal with the UK would not play well in my view.

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 16:06

Sajid Javid said this am that the govt has presented a new proposal to Brussels about the Irish border.

(turns out "new" just meant previous one with a line crossed out)

Again, try that trick in a court of law.

Not content with dissolving any trust the public might have had in the political process (let's hear it for Tony at the back there !), it seems politicians are quite happy to piss on the publics faith in the justice system (well, some, I was never that impressed to begin with).

chomalungma · 08/09/2019 16:10

plus national polling is of limited use anyway

This. What with margins of error and the fact that local politics and tactics come into play, it's obvious that local polling is of far more importance.

And as we all know, when a campaign properly gets going, things can change.

I just hope that more than the usual number of people turn out to vote.