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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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PestyMachtubernahme · 09/09/2019 14:04

The alternative to impeachment could always be sectioning.

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 14:05

An additional election headache for CCHQ. Remain-voting Newbury used to be Lib Dem marginal. Richard Benyon has a big personal following, so without him the Tories could lose it.

I think it was the previous thread ? but Guildford got a mention - seemingly from nowhere. Did I miss something ?

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 14:07

Why does Fromage keep referring to it as a clean break ???

It’s anything but.

We’d have a weeks worth of excitable flag waving and then have to go crawling back to the EU and sign the very deal we were offered in the first place.

And no calling it WTO won’t work either see^^

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:07

^ "if BJ refuses to step down after MPs have chosen another PM^"

DG If defeated in a VoNC, BJ remains as caretaker PM - still with significant powers - until there is a new PM
So that's quite different to the case when he resigns over the QS

If he refuses to recommend a successor that MPs have chosen, then he is staying on as caretaker PM

That's why I refer to him "refusing to step down"

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 14:09

Back when No Deal was in March it was said that

"When Big Ben strikes 11pm on the 29th of March the UK government will declare a critical incident." See below for video.

twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1091409385178439681?s=20

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 14:09

So even Faridge thinks an NI only backstop is likely.

I'm wondering if we've seen peak Farage ?

Will be interesting to see when new candidates are selected, how they step up to the Brexit debate. For a few, there is a chance to say "fuck that for a game of soldiers. I'm not going to be bound to a 3 - maybe 4 - year old advisory referendum". I doubt it, but might oaks from little acorns and all that.

There's certainly a window of opportunity for candidates to suggest that they see need to pause and consider the best way to "respect the referendum" with the "fresh hands" halo. Especially if they were mysteriously under-the-radar in 2016 ....

Many moving parts in this machine, Yoda see.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:11

Why does Fromage keep referring to it as a clean break ?

he lies to tell people what they want to hear

As in the ref, he gains votes by making promises that can't be fulfilled

  • and then it will be the fault of EU "punishment" and Remainer "saboteurs & traitors"
PestyMachtubernahme · 09/09/2019 14:12

The 31st October is the beginning of Brexit, not the end.

There is no such thing as a clean break, a no deal will be messy.

The WA was a transition agreement, that would let us get our shit together and sort out things like the Irish border.

If we had a wonderful solution, the backstop -safety net- would never need to be activated.

^ these things need to be remembered ^

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:15

DG Not many have stepped up so far, because they put career & party first

  • and not being attacked by the mob, online and around Parliament

Any new Tory candidates will be very carefully vetted to exclude anyone not willing to No Deal

Some existing MPs may be deselected if they won't agree

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 14:16

Andrew Adonis
@Andrew_Adonis
·
15m
I’m not sure Jo Swinson has thought through standing down against Tories who are pro-Brexit, just against no deal, while standing in Labour-Tory marginals where Labour is pro-referendum and against Brexit.
@joswinson

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 14:18

I'm wondering if we've seen peak Farage
God I hope so.

We’ve gone from him waltzing into Downing Street riding high in the polls in June at what 26% to offering to give BJ a helping hand in the north.

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 14:20

I'm thinking of all parties. While I can, before we become a single party state.

Lisette1940 · 09/09/2019 14:25

Gingerly pmk

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 14:26

I wonder how Brexit features when fed into the human phenomenon that is "fads" ? Skateboards, Rubiks cubes, deelyboppers, "Frankie says...", Soul boys, The New Wave of British Heavy Metal ...

Arguably Thatcherism or Reaganism were fads too.

Where is Hari Seldon ? (And for a lot of readers who is Hari Seldon Grin).

DS commented recently that if anyone wants to pump a message to his posse, it's Instagram or nothing. Even Facebook seems a tad faddy ...

usuallydormant · 09/09/2019 14:27

I'm not surprised Farage was annoyed: a great, clear speech from Varadkar and Boris behaved himself, promising he really really wanted a deal....well let's see if he brings back that NI backstop..

www.rte.ie/news/2019/0909/1074731-johnson-varadkar-dublin/

BoreOfWhabylon · 09/09/2019 14:37

Very interesting interview on Radio4 World At One with French MP from Macron's party.

He says Macron likely to insist on a long extension (he said 2 years)

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0008977

Starts around 17 minutes

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:42

Yep, goes back to Martin Selmayr's offer to Liddington in 2018:

An extension for some years (MS suggested 5), so the UK can first agree with itself what it wants

That idea's never gone away
Almost all of them accept we are going, but do want a deal if possible

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:43

"I’m not sure Jo Swinson has thought through standing down against Tories who are pro-Brexit, just against no deal, while standing in Labour-Tory marginals where Labour is pro-referendum and against Brexit. "
Confused🤦🏻‍♀️
poster Swinson was already high on my List Of Fools

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:45

in Labour-Tory marginals, Ldems & Greens need to stand down

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 14:46

... unless a rare Tory Remainer survives as a candidate

Icantreachthepretzels · 09/09/2019 14:46

He says Macron likely to insist on a long extension (he said 2 years)

I would kiss Macron if that were the case. 5 even better.

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 14:48

I wasn’t far out @DGRossetti

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 14:50

From memory these past 40 or so years, the Tories (and Labour) have always shied away from any talk of pacts or coalitions when they go into a General Election. The argument being that they don't allow the voter a clear choice and (more importantly) they are popular enough to win in their own right.

A Tory party that does decide to enter into any sort of pact with any other party would be a fundamentally different party to the one that existed in 2017. I wonder if they really could carry the moderate Tories with them as voters ?

Farage is free to do whatever he wants with his BXP, of course.

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 14:50

So we would have 2 years to work on Leavers and show them why No Deal Bad? Hmm

Or just stop talking about it and hope they forget? Wink