Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

[RedToothBrush]

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

Also "if normal procedure followed." - may not be

Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK
For the avoidance of doubt I am not intending to join the Lib Dem’s - #RoryIsATory

Ian Dunt@iandunt
I wonder if the fact the PM was destroyed every time he appeared in parliament played a role in his decision to prorogue tonight instead of Thursday.

Suspending parliament will take the heat off Labour for an election. Puts the heat on Johnson to figure out what he's going to do before Oct19 extension deadline.

By reversing what happens in late Oct to no-deal to extension, it effectively reverses the pressure of time.

But: without parliament, No10 will be able to issue their standard 'we'll take them all on' horseshit, as they did over the summer, without MPs being able to demonstrate how flimsy it is.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9f3d8ccc-d284-11e9-aa6d-16cb9f989e55
Brexit negotiating team shrinks to only four staff

The Europe unit which had led negotiations for a Brexit deal with Brussels has been disbanded by Boris Johnson.

The civil servants who worked in the Cabinet Office under Olly Robbins, Theresa May’s chief Brexit negotiator, are all thought to have been redeployed to other government departments.

The Times also understands that Mr Robbins, who was moved from his job by Mr Johnson, will announce this week that he is leaving the civil service.

He has been on gardening leave since July after handing over to David Frost, a former political adviser to Mr Johnson who is now his Europe adviser.

A Whitehall source said that Mr Frost had a core team of only four political and civil service advisers working directly for him

So in the 1980s, the Liberals picked up the more moderate socialists who abandoned Labour, and now they appear to be picking up Tories jumping ship ?

Is there such a thing as "Socialist Conservatism" ? (I think it would be more "Social Conservatism" in Britain)

Stewart Wood @stewartwood
An important point from Leo Varadkar at the end of his (quite brutal) remarks: "Negotiating FTAs with the EU & US, & securing their ratification within 3 years, is going to be a Herculean task...I think the manner in which you leave the EU will determine whether that is possible"

DG MPs would need to involve the courts if BJ refuses to step down after MPs have chosen another PM

Again the problem here is our waffly Constitution with "expected" to resign, not "required" to do so.
Quite possibly he can delay 14 days, or however many days before the Rebel Alliance agree on something

Might have been better to have the VoNC last Thursday or today - it takes priority over all other Parliamentary business

HoC publication: he "has" to resign if another MP has the Confidence / voted of the HoC

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmpubadm/1813/1813.pdf

"35. The Cabinet Manual is a helpful guide on what should occur.
It is clear that,during the 14-day period following a vote of no confidence under Section 2(3),
the Prime Minister is under a duty not to resign unless and until it is clear another person commands the confidence of the House.

It is also clear that
in the event that it becomes apparent that another person could command the confidence of the House the Prime Minister would be expected to resign.

Not to resign in such a circumstance would risk drawing the Sovereign in to the political process,
something the Cabinet Manual is very clear should not occur."
< and about which BJ & Cummings will give how many fucks ? >

Mujtabi Rahman @mij_europe
Back in January, EU was contemplating a move on backstop. Post-Biarritz, another small window presented itself. Now, EU capitals are asking if compromise is worth it - to facilitate minimal FTA deal that won't differ much from no deal. My latest on EU thinking in @guardianopinion

In Brussels, the goodwill Boris Johnson fostered is slowly ebbing away

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/09/brussels-boris-johnson-eu-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
In Brussels, the goodwill Boris Johnson fostered is slowly ebbing away

Amazing that there's even any goodwill left at all.

David Frost hasn't tweeted since July 10th (up until then v. pro Leave tweets). Can only assume he's not quite so sure he wants to be vocal on that these days

Richard Benyon @richardbenyonmp
Today I have announced that I will not be seeking re-election at the forthcoming General Election. Read my full statement here: t.co/mO16xmNjwQ

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
An additional election headache for CCHQ. Remain-voting Newbury used to be Lib Dem marginal. Richard Benyon has a big personal following, so without him the Tories could lose it.

Benyon was one of the 21.

Brexit negotiating team shrinks to only four staff

Not really quite sure why we needed any at all, if it was the easiest deal in history ? Perhaps someone to serve the cup of tea it was claimed it would all be done by ?

There is a doctorate to be written about how since the introduction of printing, people have tried to come up with ways to erase the past ...

I never said that ...
I did said that, but it's out of context
I did say that, in context, but you misunderstood
I did say that, in context, you understood perfectly, but things have changed.
I didn't say that, but you said I did, and now are acting as if I had said it.

and so on.

In fact we can go back before printing, if you want to have an introduction mentioning the Roman Damnatio memoriae

'Slowly ebbing away'?! Rushing away at a vast rate of knots more like.

Let's see what the Rebel Alliance comes up with. If they VoNC on the first day back, the full 14 days can pass before the deadline. BoJo, if he refuses to step down, would remain PM and would still be obliged to honour the Benn Bill.

They just need to get their act together!

On fire today Red thanks.

Yep, been said before:

What is the point of the EU making concessions if the results will just be a bare bones FTA and Ireland shafted ?

That kind of FTA would let the UK undercut EU standards on workers rights, consumers, the environment etc - all of which cost businesses money
.... and that installs a permanent goods border in Ireland

Hugo Gye @hugogye
Ex-minister Mark Prisk announces he will leave Parliament at the next election and criticises 'the wider decline in public discourse and the rise of narrow ideology over pragmatic, common sense'.

Prisk MP for Hertford and Stortford

What time are we expecting the SO24's today?

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Assuming he doesn't come back with a deal, the mega pinch point of this autumn is likely to be what happens when Boris Johnson loses a vote on the Queen's Speech but refuses to extend.

Probably formal Vote of No Confidence which Johnson tries to sit out beyond Oct 31st...

So question then becomes can opposition swallow Corbyn as replacement to a PM who is breaking the law?

And can they find a way to force the Palace to appoint him if Johnson refuses to resign?

This is the nightmare scenario some in rebel alliance fear- hence why some have been talking about very unlikely and archaic mechanism of impeachment.

DG MPs would need to involve the courts if BJ refuses to step down after MPs have chosen another PM

?

That wasn't what was being floated. The idea was that after losing a VoNC, Boris simply goes without the usual convention of suggesting his successor. Which (presumably) places the onus on the Monarch to make the choice themselves - thus inviting the fury of Brexiteers ...

It would be an(other) attempt to gum up parliamentary procedure by acting outside the norm.

I am hoping that the massed hive mind of an entire civil service are being bought to bear on the intricacies of our constitution, and that the fact it is unwritten (in the main) can actually be turned against those that would seek to destroy it. Because if we don't know it like the backs of our hands, then neither do the wreckers. So there may yet be some bear traps for them. That, after all, is one of the repeated reasons that has been trotted out when arguing for a written constitution.

The US has a written constitution. It's schoolkids are made to learn it. But it didn't stop all sorts of horrors. Including (most obviously) slavery.

That joint statement from Ireland is full of subtext. So the discussion is at the early stages (were we not to turbocharge the negotiation in the 30 days??), the meeting today lasted 30’ of which I bet 10 were spent in small talk “how was your trip, have a seat, sugar and milk in your cuppa?”....and then they must have spent some time to agree what sort of summary to put out in the press statement.

I think I need to go and look for that 3rd hand Iveco....

What's the impeachment process then? Looks like that's where we're going!

Even with only "natural retirements" there would always be several Tory MPs still in the party,
but with nothing to lose, who can vote as they see best

Looks like there could be a few extra retirements, just to escape the pressure cooker that the HoC is likely to stay for several years

Fromage not happy with his BoZoCum

Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
·
1h
The Boris bravado has disappeared in Dublin, saying No Deal would be a “failure of statecraft”.

He is now going all out for Mrs May’s “deal”, with Northern Ireland to be hived off from the rest of the UK.

A clean break Brexit is the only way forward.

@red If BJ resigns, I presume the HoC would not be able to vote on any bills until there is a new PM ?

That could also prevent MPs being aboe to vote in the WA

So even Faridge thinks an NI only backstop is likely.