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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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Basilpots · 09/09/2019 13:05

Ouch Margot.

FractalChaos · 09/09/2019 13:07

I am a few threads behind

What happens now? So they prorogue and nothing happens until October. Then Queen's speech.

If it passes, what happens with no deal? If it fails, what happens with no deal.

basically, are we going to no deal?

QueenOfThorns · 09/09/2019 13:10

As mentioned upthread, the Labour reselection thing is NORMAL, but does look very bad at the mo Sad

However, if my Labour MP has to stand against a BXP gammon rather than a Tory, all that will happen is he’ll increase his majority, leave area or no leave area Grin

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 13:10

Guardian story re Rory www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/rory-stewart-threatens-alternative-parliament-to-avoid-no-deal-brexit.

He said if Johnson attempted to prorogue parliament, he and other MPs would be prepared to “bring him down”. “If he were to try, I and every other member of parliament, will sit across the road in Methodist Central Hall and we will hold our own session of parliament,” he said.

I'm guessing the "bring him down" part is what BoZoCum are hoping for..

Hazardtired · 09/09/2019 13:15

Sorry to bring this up again but i have an urgent desire to be very clear.

With this Tory gov with a deal or without a deal people will suffer. Look at the consultant rationing that stands now. I cannot stress enough how utterly thick it is to try to insist on one consultant only.

This isnt cost saving. Delays in appropiate care cause costly long term damage. I'm going to keep pointing this out DP wouldnt be on ESA and PIP, I wouldnt be sat here typing this on carers allowance if he had been swiftly diagnosed and treated. Failure in service has caused us to become benefit dependant.

There's at least two treatment options out there in this world that could allow him to live a somewhat healthier life. Gone through all the appropiate checks and licences. We've been told no cant have it - it takes to much money and requires a hospital stay and hospitals have no beds. (We can't afford to pay for it.)

No deal is a heavier hammer but a sledge hammer is falling on us regardless.

BlackeyedGruesome · 09/09/2019 13:16

Thanks for the meds list, I think. Mum's, ex's and mine are on the list.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 13:16

Example:
Stoke Central would be a typical seat to go after in a pact for the Tories/Brexit Party

The 2017 by election looked like this:

Labour 7,853 37.1%
UKIP 5,233 24.7%
Con 5,154 24. 3%
LD 2,083 9.8%
Green 294 1.4%

Which looks promising for a pact... But its a by-election.

For the GE it looked like this:

Lab 17,083 51.5%
Con 13,186 39.8%
UKIP 1,608 4.8%
LD 680 2.0%
Green Adam Colclough 378 1.1%

Now I know that there has been a lot of dissatisfaction with the Labour Party since then, but I still think that's no walk in the park for the Brexit Party if they went into a pact with the Tories.

Its fascinating how the two votes changed in just a few months and how much tactical voting must have gone on (I also note the earlier by election held in February had the student vote and the LDs really worked on it, but at the time of the June General many of those students will have gone home for the summer). It would not surprise me if the LDs / Greens simply stood down here if there were a Tory/Brexit pact. Its just not worth them fighting here - indeed it works against their interests and agenda to do so. If they were smart, they wouldn't stand as you'd be looking at an effect that's happened in Europe where it becomes a vote against the far right. (The LDs didn't stand any candidates in May's local elections in Stoke either)

Stoke Central was always the one they thought there would be a potential breakthrough in. I remain somewhat unconvinced.

It is ripe for an anti-establishment vote (a sizeable number of local councillors are 'City independents) and there is the Farage Factor (Nuttal was leader for the by-election)

Anyone who would like to predict what would happen in this seat, cos I certainly couldn't call it.

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Basilpots · 09/09/2019 13:16

lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/what-my-latest-focus-groups-say-about-the-twists-and-turns-of-the-brexit-drama/

Most people just aren’t as interested in what’s going on in politics as we are.

Peregrina · 09/09/2019 13:16

Colouring didn't Rory say he would meet MPs and set up an alternative parliament?

My thoughts exactly - they now have more time to get together and plan alternatives.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 13:19

Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
1/5 Staunch brexiteer @DavidJonesMP has announced he'll step down at the next General Election whenever that is. He's been MP for Clwyd West since 2005.

2/5 He says 'At the age of 67, I have decided that it is time for me to indicate that I will be stepping down, to enable the Clwyd West Conservative Association to select my successor.'

3/5 'At a personal level, I also wish to devote more of my time to my family, who have been a huge support to me over so many years and who have – like all MPs’ families – had to cope with the inevitable pressures imposed by Parliamentary life.'

4/5 'It has been the greatest honour of my life to represent the people of Clwyd West at Westminster, and I shall continue to do so enthusiastically until the general election is called.'

5/5 'I shall also continue strongly to support the Prime Minister in his determination to keep faith with the outcome of the 2016 referendum and to take the United Kingdom to a new and better future outside the European Union.'

Hmm interesting...

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JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 13:20

Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
·
Peter Foster 2h @pmdfoster

It is one of the oddest things about a 'no deal' being a 'clean break' #Brexit.

Nothing would more guarantee #Brexit on front pages for the next year. Only a deal - and transition etc - prevents that. Amazing it sticks as a election trail mantra.

Songsofexperience · 09/09/2019 13:20

Yes hazard 💐

Somewhat simplistic perhaps but for me a successful government does three things: keeps its citizens healthy, keeps them safe and educates them.

NoWordForFluffy · 09/09/2019 13:22

@peregrina, I was just coming to post that. The Rebel Alliance now has 5 weeks to come up with a plan they're all happy with. Including a VoNC followed by GNU. The prorogation may actually work against BoJo if the others get their act together. And I've a feeling they will.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 13:22

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
3. Prepare for an utterly British spectacle: if the Speaker grants both emergency SO24 debates today, the prorogation ceremony in the Lords (5 peers doffing funny hats as the clerk says in Norman French 'La Reyne le veult') may not take place until after 1am tonight.

The utterly absurd prorogation ceremony in full, here;
www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentwork/offices-and-ceremonies/overview/prorogation1/prorogation/

Something about Black Rod and some French and the Queen wishing it

Bercow is definitely having a late night.

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dontcallmelen · 09/09/2019 13:23

Song I agree, such basic tenets of a decent government.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 13:24

Sebastian Payne@SebastianePayne
💥 Dom Cummings told aides he isn’t worried about SO24:

“For a supposedly adequate lawyer who loves the ECHR, Grieve doesn’t seem to realise that his request for private messages is blatantly illegal and will be rejected by the Cabinet Office. We love the rule of law in No10.”

Cummings will be happy to have the ECHR dragged into this - he's talked about wanting a ref to leave it before...

This is electioneering.

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usuallydormant · 09/09/2019 13:24

Great graphic here showing just how crazy voting intention data now is. I'm normally one defending polls but this shows how anyone who can predict what's going to happen in a GE based on polling data is probably just very lucky.

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 13:26

This is another Stoke MP today. Stoke North (as opposed to Central)

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/i-need-apologise--stoke-3298469.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=TRUE
'I need to apologise' – Stoke-on-Trent North MP Ruth Smeeth sorry for rejecting Brexit deal
The Labour MP didn't vote for the deal earlier in the year in the hope a better one could have been arranged

Says will pretty much leave with any deal...

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TheMShip · 09/09/2019 13:27

Failing to pass the QS is imo when BJ would probably resign - handily also before he has to ask for an extension

I don't think that timing is right, if normal procedure followed. QS should have several days of debate before a vote is taken (6 I think), which takes us past the deadline to ask for an extension.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 13:29

Joint statement after BJ-Varadkar meeting:

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 13:30

The SNP’s Ronnie Cowan asks if, in the event of a vote of no confidence, the PM could just run down the clock for 14 days without recommending an alternative PM to the Queen ...Sedwill confirms that that is the case....Sedwill suggests that, following a vote of no confidence, the prime minster would not be obliged to suggest an alternative PM to the Queen.

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 13:30

@usuallydormant I saw that it’s like someone started putting something funny in the water in January.Grin

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 13:34

Stoke-on-Trent North MP Ruth Smeeth sorry for rejecting Brexit deal. The Labour MP didn't vote for the deal earlier in the year in the hope a better one could have been arranged

Another one blathering on about wanting to "respect the referendum" whilst at the same time wanting a Brexit that shits unicorns:

I just want to make sure Brexit is delivered in a way that strengthens us.

You can't have both.

DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 13:35

I saw usuallydormants graphic with the tag: "It's rare to see the exact moment an entire nation dropped acid ...."

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 13:36

mship He would probably resign before the 19 October deadline, during QS debate if it's still ongoing

With these strange ciircumstances, I'm not sure how the QS debate will go, or for how long, other than that the WS itself won't pass