Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

Whether that be them meddling from the continent or physically living here - that’s what’s it’s all about

So stopping FOM, being closely aligned with the EU on trade, tariff free, frictionless trade...

Control over immigration and control over our own laws. Even though we pretty much had that already.....

I think people should be honest about what’s possible in practice then decide from there.

Prattling on about staying in SM / CU whilst trying to please the demands of Leavers on FOM and trade deals etc will get us nowhere

I do think we have gone too far for this to ever be resolved without no deal now but I’d be happy to be proved wrong however that needs a reality check not just a lot of wishful thinking.

Control over immigration and control over our own laws. Even though we pretty much had that already.....

You don’t need to convince me of that - you need to convince those who believe in no deal at any cost

Prattling on about staying in SM / CU whilst trying to please the demands of Leavers on FOM and trade deals etc will get us nowhere

There are lots of options out there that would be an acceptable compromise for most people.

Don't you think compromise is a good thing?

Don't you think compromise is a good thing?

Yes - 3 years ago

Do you honestly think we can go back and start again?

Do you think the EU will even let us? They’re fed up with us extending and then just wasting the time as it is.

The EU will negotiate but only after the UK has come to some sort of decision. Outside of the ideologues on all sides there are a lot of pragmatic people who recognise that Europe needs access to the financial services market in London and the UK needs access to the EU market. Businesses in the EU want and need to sell to the UK too.

I suspect once the political posturing is over there will be a lot of sensible technical discussions that will be the real settlement.

You don’t need to convince me of that - you need to convince those who believe in no deal at any cost

But how many people do believe in no deal at any cost? people didn't start having strong opinions about Brexit or calling themselves 'Remainers' or 'Leavers' until Spring 2016. The topic was largely ignored before 2015.

"Brexit is doing to UK politics what Trump has done to US politics. Parties lose their souls everything is about despising "other" And there is no return route from there PLEASE do not demonise those who support other parties / viewpoints"

I don't fully agree with this. I think with Boris Johnson deciding to kick out the 21 'rebels' who were mostly anything but, and were just old fashioned Tories, with vastly more Parliamentary experience that he has, people have begun to realise that they have to find the things they have in common.

I do think we have gone too far for this to ever be resolved without no deal now but I’d be happy to be proved wrong however that needs a reality check not just a lot of wishful thinking.

So you think No Deal is the way forward even though you don't want No Deal, and you think No Deal will resolve things better than some kind of compromise would. Have I got that right?

"you need to convince those who believe in no deal at any cost"

No we don't
Nor those who will only accept Remain
Impossible to please them all
Impossible to please those who demand that the "other side" - fellow Brits - must lose and have their noses rubbed in it.

instead, try to develop / persuade a consensus of say 60-70% who will, however grudgingly, accept a compromise

Otherwise, the country crashes out with No Deal and the economy crashes with it
Prolonged deep recession will anger most people, who may then turn to the far left or far right,
whoever has the best demagogue and a convincing line in which enemies are to blame

No Deal is still the most likely outcome, but also the worst possible
So we shouldn't just give up and accept it

instead, try to develop / persuade a consensus of say 60-70% who will, however grudgingly, accept a compromise

And how do you propose to do this given the time frames and current situation?

So you think No Deal is the way forward even though you don't want No Deal, and you think No Deal will resolve things better than some kind of compromise would. Have I got that right?

Pretty much - yes.

I’d prefer revoke but that’s extremely unlikely.

All Remainers have succeeded in doing in the last 3 years is hardening the resolve of Leavers.

For many it was never even about the EU (non- white immigration, austerity etc) now it’s still those things plus anger at the establishment not implementing the ‘will of the people’

If you can see a way of pacifying those people, that’s actually possible in practice at this late stage, without proving the repercussions of no deal then I’m all ears

As it stands I don’t think this will go away unless we no deal then back track PDQ and try and repair the damage

The legislation to prevent a no deal brexit is due to get royal assent early next week, so unless BJ decides not to obey the law, we will not leave with no deal on 31st October.

It seems likely that there will be a general election shortly after and it will be for a newly elected government to determine the path of brexit.

For more than two years most voters have told pollsters they want to Remain.

A no deal brexit has been shown to be catastrophic but any kind of brexit will harm our country.

Most folk are fed up of brexit, but many do not realise that "getting on with brexit" would not be the end of it. It would only be the beginning. The rest of our lives would be blighted by arguments over trade deals and blame for the disaster.

I would like to see Article 50 revoked. We could then concentrate on other issues and I would hope that we could put this brexit nonsense behind us and start to repair the damage.

And how do you propose to do this given the time frames and current situation

GNU, negotiate with the EU, see what happens, if no changes, then withdrawal agreement.

Or...test Parliament properly and see what Parliament will vote for.
Given the fact that things have changed significantly since the last time we had indicative votes.

Brexit done.

Move on

The only other option I see is a straight GE contest:-

• Tory / BXP for no deal

• Labour / LD for Remain

That would confirm the ‘will of the people’ one way or another.

But Labour will never do that and will run on some wish washy pipe dream where they think they’ll get a cake and eat it Deal.

And that is possible in the current time frames how choma?

That would confirm the ‘will of the people’ one way or another

It will still divide us.

To have total victory on one side and total defeat on another is not a good move for any country where people have to live together.

And that is possible in the current time frames how choma

Up to the EU, and if we have a GNU that is able to hold together and withstand any votes of no confidence in Parliament.

If an election is called, then bets are off....

It will still divide us.

Which is why I see no deal as the only outcome in reality.

There’s simply no time for ‘compromise’. We’ve wasted 3 years already.

We have to go with what the majority claim to want and see who was right.

There’s simply no time for ‘compromise’. We’ve wasted 3 years already

There should always time for compromise.

Up to the EU

Indeed, and they’re fed up of us faffing around already.

We’d near a clear goal, of just Corbyn wittering on about securing a new deal.

There should always time for compromise

Goodness me that’s naive.

The trouble is that No Deal won't pacify many of the people asking for it. They're not going to look at the consequences of No Deal and say "oh yeah, turns out you were right about it being shit, silly us". It takes a lot to admit you were wrong and, in my experience, most people just double down. They'll just find another scapegoat or claim a conspiracy to cover up the beautiful benefits of Brexit, helped by the fact that there will always be media sources willing to sell them what they want.

The legislation to prevent a no deal brexit is due to get royal assent early next week, so unless BJ decides not to obey the law, we will not leave with no deal on 31st October so long as the EU agree to another extension.

Because we cannot unilaterally extend the A.50 period ourselves (we can only ask for this to happen). The only unilateral actions parliament can take to avoid no deal are:

1. Revoke A.50
2. Accept the WA.

Good article from Jonathan Freedland -echoes many of the points long term posters have made about the way BJ's actions are perceived by 'ordinary voters' as opposed to those ( I include myself) in the liberal echo chamber.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/06/three-questions-general-election-brexit-remain