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Brexit

Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 09:50

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

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placemats · 07/09/2019 16:53

The issue as I see it with another referendum is that remain or leave is that it doesn't solve the issue.

An election doesn't resolve the issue either. deRigeur

placemats · 07/09/2019 16:55

Why should the British people resign themselves to a crash out of Brexit, yet another general election, and the same old same old?

Just put forward another referendum. What's so scary about that?

OublietteBravo · 07/09/2019 17:02
Grin
Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
pumkinspicetime · 07/09/2019 17:09

I've been thinking about this idea that we need to bring the country together and I think the issue with this is that you need truth before reconciliation.
I see there are threats of more conservative MP's giving up the whip if BJ does ignore law stating he has to ask for an extension.

DeRigueurMortis · 07/09/2019 17:15

placemats a GE has the potential to resolve the impasse.

If we get a majority govt that have the numbers to push through no deal, the WA or potentially revised deal then it would resolve the issue.

May couldn't push her deal over the line as she only had a thin majority by virtue of the DUP and was hamstrung by the ERG.

Of course we could end up with a hung parliament and be back to square one...

bombomboobah · 07/09/2019 17:17

we are deadlocked

Basilpots · 07/09/2019 17:17

@Placemats I think the additional problem with a PV is that it would take a minimum of 22 weeks to arrange one.

People seem to be losing three mind waiting an extra couple of weeks for an election.

I would however agree a GE will not necessarily solve anything other than another hung Parliament.

DeRigueurMortis · 07/09/2019 17:23

I don't want to crash out or resign myself to it, but I'm a realist.

Personally I think May's Deal is the only way forward as stands.

I don't like it, I want to remain, but I can't possibly see how that would ever happen.

Also a PV is scary. There's absolutely no certainty you'd get the result you want and potentially it could be even worse if no deal is part of the vote.

I'd like to see the rebel alliance not just holding firm against an election but working to pass May's deal. I think it's the only way to ensure No Deal doesn't prevail.

I just cant see that happening though. The LibDems won't support anything less than revoking A50 and I doubt the SNP would either.

Labour on the other hand are between a rock and a hard place with voters straddling the leave/remain divide. They can't push through May's deal alone and would they alienate the Labour Leavers by revoking?

I very much doubt it based on the narrative from them to date.

Bearbehind · 07/09/2019 17:25

GE has the potential to resolve the impasse

I don’t see how with Labour on the fence.

What is a vote for them supposed to be achieving?

We pretty much know what a Tory / BXP vote is for - unless Labour offer something radically different and crucially, something that is actually possible, it’s yet more can kicking.

hopefulhalf · 07/09/2019 17:31

The WA as it stands doesnt rule out CU/SM membership or am I missing something ? I think it was only the WA in the hands of a tory goverment without assurences about worker's rights that labour objected to. The WA passed by a lib/lab coalition would be perfectly compatoble with a custom's union, single market membership. Which is I think why the ERG won't vote for it. This is only my understanding please correct me if I have misunderstood.

DeRigueurMortis · 07/09/2019 17:33

Bear you're right I think in the sense that if a GE delivers a Labour majority the outcome is still unclear.

It's a strong Tory win (which is what BJ is banking on) that delivers a resolution.

Hoooo · 07/09/2019 17:35

Agree with both tip and bear

I think it's too late.

ListeningQuietly · 07/09/2019 17:38

Placemats
What question would you put on the referendum?

NoWordForFluffy · 07/09/2019 17:42

It's not over until the fat lady sings and all that.

I think the social divide will take - at least - a generation to heal, but the U.K. isn't down and out yet.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/09/2019 17:42

I don’t see how with Labour on the fence.

Youre being disingenuous Bear, you want No Deal, youre a exTory voter and no matter how many times the Labour position is explained to you you say they are on the fence whatever Bear youre want for No Deal is no more than your disdain for the poor and vulnerable because youre fine I'm sure

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 17:43

hopeful That's right.

The WA is just the Exit deal

mostly housekeeping:
pay your debts, fulfill your previous responsibilities e.g. GFA / NI, fulfill ongoing / future responsibilities e.g. E27 expats in the UK

The PD, which has the future framework, cannot be made legally binding, because it has to be negotiated over probably several years, with probably different govts in the UK and the E27

So, the future trade deal depends on which government(s) we elect for those years
and they could choose SM & a customs arrangement to safeguard the economy and jobs

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Bearbehind · 07/09/2019 17:52

You're being disingenuous Bear, you want No Deal, youre a exTory voter and no matter how many times the Labour position is explained to you you say they are on the fence whatever Bear youre want for No Deal is no more than your disdain for the poor and vulnerable because youre fine I'm sure

just give over with the ex Tory nonsense. It’s both tedious and pointless.

The ‘Labour position’ has not been explained any further than to say they won’t play their hand just now.

You might be fooled by that but most people aren’t.

We don’t need another government who think they can have their cake and eat it.

We need one that is realistic and honest about what is actually achievable

borntobequiet · 07/09/2019 17:52

Article in Evening Standard today - Tony Blair persuasively making the argument for a referendum as opposed to an election.
Had to leave Whitehall via side streets because facist mobs blocking both ends. Perhaps as a consequence, demo much smaller than last Sat - or perhaps sense of urgency dissipated because of recent vote. VERY heavy police presence. Is this being reported?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 17:53

"try to develop / persuade a consensus of say 60-70% who will, however grudgingly, accept a compromise"

As to how:

We probably already have a consensus, adding up those Remainers and Leavers who are not hardline

We have seen many Remainers would accept a WA, but not No Deal
Many Leavers don't want No Deal either - but some will vote for it if it is Remain vs No Deal and some won't

The mistake some make is to think / claim that those Leavers who demand an end to immigration are a majority of all voters
They aren't
They are a part of the 52% who voted Leave

What is important, if there is a PV:

  • The general form of Leave is specified, either No Deal or whatever Exit deal / PD Starmer / Corbyn get
  • The govt must accept the result, even if that is No Deal, because this time voters would have specifically chosen a form of Leave, not just all possible versions

A PV would only happen if Labour win a GE, so if the WA is chosen, then a 5 year term gives enough time for the main parts of a future trade deal to be signed

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berlinbabylon · 07/09/2019 17:54

Spot on BigChoc. The biggest issue with the WA seems to be that people don't "get" that it's just the leaving deal, although I think in some cases it's wilful misunderstanding. There's still all to play for and staying in the EEA is entirely possible if we had a government sensible enough to go for that as a compromise based on a narrow referendum result. If we stayed closely aligned to EU law, and it's true that the young want to stay in the EU and the old are dying off and want to leave, it leaves the way open to rejoin.

A "burn your bridges" approach is not just bad in the short-term, it is damaging in the long term too.

placemats · 07/09/2019 17:55

placemats a GE has the potential to resolve the impasse.

No it doesn't.

Basilpots · 07/09/2019 17:55

We need one that is realistic and honest about what is actually achievable

Who do you think offers that ?

Bearbehind · 07/09/2019 18:01

Who do you think offers that?

No one, that’s the problem

placemats · 07/09/2019 18:03

The referendum didn't resolve the impasse.
The subsequent general election didn't resolve the impasse.

This current impasse needs a people's vote.

Do we go or do we stay?

Bearbehind · 07/09/2019 18:05

BCF that post might have been valid 3 years ago but time has run out now

Labour aren’t even promising PV because of Corbyn

And the EU aren’t going to let us fanny on forever.

Uncertainty is crippling their economies and ours already - it needs sorting now