Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Thanks to the posters who answered my question.

Im actually praying for may's deal to be passed, Is that a vain hope?

I think it will come down to whatever is in the manifestos.

This is what I hate about all this - I voted Labour - because I wanted the Tories to not win. I didn't agree with Brexit - and would have gone Lib Dem - but that would have got a Conservative in.

My vote has been used to justify Brexit. No - it's because we have a stupid FPTP system.

If they want a vote on Brexit, put it to the people in a vote on the terms of the deal. Not all mixed up in the rest of a manifesto.

If more people vote for parties that want to have a people's vote / Customs union than vote for the Conservative / Brexit party, what does that do?

Interesting theory from the New Statesman about why the Kinnock amendment got "mistakenly' left without tellers:

because the vote passed by default, there is no division list. Even in defeat, the bill risked creating a far more dangerous blow to Boris Johnson than any effort to delay no deal – a positive majority for an alternative Brexit approach. Had 30 or so Labour MPs actually voted for the deal, the path to a plausible and negotiable deal other than that favoured by Johnson would have been clear.

If I were in charge of labour, once the legislation gets passed I'd sit back and wait until after the EU council meeting - forcing BJ to either step down, ask for an extension, present a deal to HoC, break the law or call a vonc in his own government.

Surely tonight’s defeat means it isn’t possible for Johnson to call a GE which takes place before the EU council meeting?

Surely tonight’s defeat means it isn’t possible for Johnson to call a GE which takes place before the EU council meeting?

Yes.

And it makes it near impossible pre 31st Oct too.

Doesn't mean he won't try and pull a stunt to trigger one somehow, but yes his strategy has suffered something of a blow.

He's not done yet. I certainly don't write off his chances of surviving yet.

Agree lyra

howabout Why do you want No Deal so badly ?

It will make a lot of profit for a few Tory hedge-funders, but it will kill many vulnerable people

On 17 October BJ won't have a deal
(because there are no negotiations and both the EU Commission & Ireland have said Bj has no sisnible proposals)

So, only a few days before No Deal, will the 450+ MPs opposed to No Deal just let it happen ?

WIll Labour choose to let No Deal happen, or will they pass the WA ?
WIll Tory Remainers ?

Labour were playing politics before about the WA - their main objection was that a Tory PM put it forward.

If they let No Deal happen when they could stop it, they might be hammered by both their Remainer and their Soft Leave voters.

Many Tories voted for the WA before; more would now if the alternative wre No Deal

• and will May & Liddington really vote against their own WA they spent 2 years negotiating ?

I'm not saying it will happen, just that a few days before No Deal, none of us know what MPs would do to stop it

You keep changing all your arguments to give reasons why No Deal is going to happen
e.g. that a PV / Revoke is now essential for Labour when before you kept saying it would be toxic

Was that because a PV / Revoke looked more possible before, but now looks v v unlikely ?

He could VONC his own government but i can’t see that happening.

Exactly chomalungma. This is why given where they are now Labour need to pivot to straight Remain (possibly with confirmatory Referendum).

Per Stig Abell:

"There is a school of thought that the more Johnson loses in Parliament, the more he gains in a possible election. Parliament might rejoice at its victories, but it is not offering convincing solutions either".

Re earlier posts on Damian Green etc fire and fury about Tory deselctions. Suspect this is virtue signalling to Tory Remain voters.

Surely tonight’s defeat means it isn’t possible for Johnson to call a GE which takes place before the EU council meeting?

I mean I wouldn't even vote for a GE until after the meeting. Give Johnson enough rope and see which option he picks. Because they all look pretty toxic to me.

I don’t think the DM are on BJ’s side at the moment.

Im actually praying for may's deal to be passed, Is that a vain hope?

Then the history will be written that all this (total shite) was all part of the Tory big game plan in getting the WA through.

Thank you for the explanation, Grinchly. I saw things escalating, but the post was deleted before I saw it and I was puzzled. Godwin’s law in action?

My media strategy (again, if I were queen of the world leader of labour) would be radio silence. Or at least the same line over and over again "we are waiting to see BJs deal in the hope we can finally vote to leave the EU on reasonable terms". Try to force them to focus on the "negotiations".

howabout why have you done a 180 degree turn what Labour should do ?

You kept posting since the ref how Labour must consider its Leave voters, or lose dozens of seats
and that many Labour seats were Leave seats

Do you now think those seats have switched to Remain ?

Maybe Parliament should negotiate with the EU instead of the Government...

But that raises even more Constitutional questions, doesn't it?

DM is interesting.

Johnson wanted to look strong and tough. Whilst simultaneously the plucky underdog against parliamentary elite.

Instead the effect of being too heavy handed and not reading the room, he may have overcooked it and made himself look weaker than he'd like and petty and nasty even amongst Tory loyalists and Brexit fantantics. However this might merely push them towards the Brexit Party.

He viewed the Brexit Party as the threat to the party but the reaction of the liberal wing (which is still about a 3rd of the membership and the wider support from the public) has been stronger than he realised. Has he taken their support for granted? He can't risk readmitting Hammond because he's tactically part of the strategy to smear Labour in a GE, but to not do so might alsonhave bigger ramifications than Cummings war gamed

Too early to tell how it will pan out. It depends if he continues to enrage before tensions die down and normalise.

EU can not negotiate with anyone who doesn't have the support of the Queen for their own political reasons.

Why BJ is desperate for an early GE ? - because it's his best chance to win a 5-year term

The rightwing media know this too, so expect Labout to be crucified for resisting
Well, Corbyn should be used to it by now

If we do end up with No Deal, then the longer Labour can delay a GE, the longer the effects will sink in

The inital effects, the first few weeks, might well not be enough to swing a GE

but after 6 months or so, when the eonomy is crashing ?
After that point, the Tories are likely to be toast

The EU cannot negotiate with the legislature,
only with those mandated by the executive, i.e. the govt

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Senior Cabinet ministers confront Boris Johnson to insist he overturns his expulsion of 21 rebel MPs, led by Michael Gove
www.thesun.co.uk/news/9864856/cabinet-ministers-demand-boris-u-turns-on-expulsion-of-21-tory-mps/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Cabinet ministers demand Boris u-turns on expulsion of 21 Tory MPs

Led by Gove

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Matt Hancock, Julian Smith, Nicky Morgan and Amber Rudd also spoke out during a meeting of the political Cabinet. They asked the PM to offer the rebels “a way back” and spell out how they could “find redemption”.

BCF they are now too far down the rabbit hole. Therefore their best hope is to go for a GE ASAP and hope Lexiters vote Corbyn over Brexit. The more the Blairite (Hilary Benn) wing prevaricates the more it looks like Corbyn is not in charge and Lexiters end up with Remain and continuity Blair via a LibDem coalition which insists on dumping Corbyn. Besides which the even more Machiavellian take is that the better the prospects look to Labour / LibDem Remainers the more likely they are to vote LibDem.

David Gauke @Davidgauke
Just received a text to say that my Association Chairman has been told that I am no longer a member of the Conservative Party. First I’d heard of that.

Not even a member of the Conservative Party?

I finally have something in common with Dominic Cummings.