Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Cwenthryth The FTPA states ⅔ of all MPs.

That's how it was written
Nick Clegg - as a prerequisite for coalition - wanted to make calling a GE as difficult as possible before the end of the 5 year term

I've always been against the FTPA. but I confess for the first time I'm actually glad of it !
We need to repeal it after the next GE though, because it is dangerous to make it so difficult to get rid of a govt

The Jon Werth flow charts don’t have an arrow for what happens now!

We’re off the map again!

Yy wanting & the need to help others, even if it does mean some personal cost surely this is better in the long run, we only have to look around us & see the havoc caused by austerity, the inequities by the failures of of our governments who have wanted to demonise the poor/sick/vulnerable.
I spent most of my working life, working for a homeless charity supporting people with MH/addiction issues, we had amazing resources borough wide, built up over years of building networks that really worked together, we were well funded had some truly excellent people working for us, then practically overnight once the funding had started to be pulled it practically disappeared, people that were being housed & supported 24hours a day, reduced to support once a month if they were lucky, the schemes & rehabilitation centres all gone & now we are really seeing the results of this, homelessness rapidly rising & MH services in crisis.

If the bill passes Corbyn will have to come up with another excuse to say no to a GE before Oct31.

Sky reports "Barnier says EU is 'calm, united and vigilant'"

.... and laughing its collective head off at the shambles ?

Like other UK expats probably, I'm thinking now how the hell I explain at gym & work tomorrow what happened !
They keep watching with great interest, but considerable bemusement

650 * 2/3 = 434

If the bill passes Corbyn will have to come up with another excuse to say no to a GE before Oct31.
No.
He can just sit tight and let BoZo have to start negotiations
and admit to the public that Brexit will take years and years

I've always been against the FTPA. but I confess for the first time I'm actually glad of it !
We need to repeal it after the next GE though, because it is dangerous to make it so difficult to get rid of a govt

That’s only going to happen if we end up with a government who actually have a majority. I think a coalition would need to keep it in place to have any hope of governing effectively.

BlowJobCum could theoretically move a VONC in himself

I must say that it takes an awful lot of courage for JC to forego an election at the moment knowing that he is going ( and already is) getting the blame, being called a chicken and he's 'frit' etc. The abuse he's going to get in the press and t.v will be enormous. I take my hat off to him.
But he will have to be pretty wily to avoid one in the next few days.

But wouldn't a VONC in a PM just mean another leadership election?

VoNC is in the government, not a particular PM.

Good for Corbyn.

Boris would have been a twat whatever happened. Had JC agreed to an election, BJ would have said ‘ha ha, you fell into my trap’ yet this way he gets, ‘ha ha-you think you’ll lose an election!’

Swamp Not Drained

Why does Corbyn have to give a reason for not acceding to a GE? It's the government who are seeking it and I can't see why he needs to agree or give any reason for his refusal to do so.

Question:

Sorry if this has been covered already but the thread moves so quickly!

In the event the bill gets Royal Assent and Corbyn does as he stated in the Commons to agree to a GE at that point (which could be as early as Monday?), if BJ wins a GE with a majority, what's to stop him repealing this legislation?

I guess where I'm going with this is that a Lo of people seem to think BJ is getting a bartering - but I can't help think a GE has always been the end game.

Labour can't hold out indefinitely against a GE (there's a fine line between letting BJ stew in his own juice and giving him a bullet to say Labour are being irresponsible in maintaining a minority Govt that can't pass any legislation theoretically, not just Brexit).

BJ has done his purge and if he can repeal this bill then he's still in the driving seat if he believes he can win big at a GE with a loyal party devoid of moderates.

Am I missing something?

The Kinnock amendment just makes a GE more inevitable. The LibDems. SNP etc will not vote for the WA. The Govt payroll will not vote for it. The ERG will not vote for it. Why would it be acceptable for the Labour Party to vote for it when it locks them into Leave and they are on the cusp of a GE to get Revoke / PV? Also the small matter of having handed WA to Boris when they wouldn't to TM. (Boris would resign and step aside to get JC to form a Govt to do this rather than do it himself in any event). They risk being tarred as the Party of Leave / Remain and the WA. All of these positions are toxic to half the electorate and to be blamed for all of them would make them universally toxic.

The WA is not coming back but the amendment is useful for Kinnock / Flint etc signalling that they won't support Revoke / PV or EU indefinite extension. Gives them something to say to their Leave constituents.

Oops sorry for the typos!

Boris can goad Corbyn all he likes but he’s losing all the votes so Corbyn can just ignore his jibes.

His sneery mannerisms really irritate

He's losing votes in parliament though - not necessarily with the electorate....

You have it exactly right DeRigeuerMortis and the longer Parliament holds out against a GE the more ammunition they give to Boris for the campaign. They just keep digging.

Just to say one of our semi regular contributors had a post deleted this mornIng. A number of us were objecting to their description of all leavers as evil and fascist.

A number of us took issue with this, not least because such extreme views are provocative and play in to the current Cummings propaganda campaign. Thoughtful and divergent opinions around internet propaganda, educational standards etc came forward around the issue.

In the midst of this , this morning, the poster posted that Nazis were out on the thread and ironically signed off " heil Brexit".

That post was reported and immediately deleted by mn.

You're right, he can repeal, if he wins an election before 31st October there's still every chance we could no deal.

If I were in charge of labour, once the legislation gets passed I'd sit back and wait until after the EU council meeting - forcing BJ to either step down, ask for an extension, present a deal to HoC, break the law or call a vonc in his own government.

I guess where I'm going with this is that a Lo of people seem to think BJ is getting a bartering - but I can't help think a GE has always been the end game

I guess this is all being war gamed across all parties. With their flow charts etc. Like political chess.

Or as I am sure Dominic Cummings would say:

"The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand."