OMG - Johnson just lost his majority whilst in full flow of his speech

[Bearbehind]

Goodness me this is madness

Now what - can he even carry on?

Well I've heard about the events today after the fact. Good to read this thread. I don't know what to say. Doesn't sound like I'm the only one.

Hmm be careful what you wish for comes to mind

I believe more constituencies voted Leave?

406 voted leave compared to 242 voted remain

So maybe pointing the way to a Conservative win / majority in cahoots with BXP

I would say that is the most likely outcome. Might explain why Corbyn does not want an election before Law has been passed that takes no deal off the table.

I don't think that such law could be passed as Article 50 of EU describes how the leave process operates as opposed to internal UK law. If UK did pass such a law then Article 50 becomes void as UK's acceptance of Article 50 has lapsed as such articles have to be passed by ALL EU members. That means there would be no mechanism for any of the other 27 EU members to leave the EU.

If no deal is removed from Article 50 then EU could make ridiculous demands of the member that wants to leave.

What sort of Club does not allow any of its members to leave once they have joined? That is not democracy, but dictatorship.

MysteryTripAgain you’ve completely misunderstood how the bill to prevent no deal will work If enacted,

it wouldn’t amend Article 50. Article 50 is a provision in an agreement between the 28 members of the EU, so the UK by itself can’t change it.

The proposed new law will simply require the UK executive (ie. the government), if it fails to negotiate a withdrawal deal acceptable to Parliament, to request from the other EU members an extension to the time period before the UK’s notice to leave becomes effective.

to request from the other EU members an extension to the time period before the UK’s notice to leave becomes effective

What compels the other 27 EU members to agree extensions forever as UK has passed a law that prevents no deal which contradicts Article 50?

Article 50 is only valid if agreed by all EU members. How does UK passing a law that prevents no deal constitute acceptance of Article 50 as written.

Also if UK law does not permit no deal what prevents the EU from making ridiculous demands from the UK? Increase the divorce settlement, any "leaving of the EU" is only allowed if the member who wants to leave the EU respects the four pillars, etc.

If law is enacted that prevents a no deal it means the UK can never leave the EU on reasonable terms as it allows EU to dictate all terms.

The EU agreed to the WA! You can't possibly say they're stopping us leaving! They've not given in to every one of our stupid demands, you mean.

The EU agreed to the WA

UK didn’t agree to the WA. Voted down three times.

You can't possibly say they're stopping us leaving

My point was aimed at Corbyn suggestions that Law should be passed that prevents a no deal before a general election is called.

Article 50 recognised that no deal may occur. Nothing in Article 50 that prevents a member leaving the EU without a deal or that a deal must be tailored in favour of the EU.

They've not given in to every one of our stupid demands, you mean

If the two parties in the negotiations don’t agree then UK leaves without a deal.

Passing a law that prevents UK from leaving without a deal is an open cheque book for the EU as they can offer UK ridiculous terms safe in the knowledge they can’t reject as no deal has been removed.

From a legal perspective if UK passed a law that prevents a no deal departure from the EU then UK’s signature on article 50 is no longer valid. That cancels Article 50 as all such articles have to be signed off by all EU members.

Any club that does not allow members to leave on reasonable terms is an undemocratic club.

Any club that does not allow members to leave on reasonable terms is an undemocratic club.

Can we stop with this imbecilic claptrap. Of course they’re letting us leave on reasonable terms.

The erg dicks types want special deals and abandoning of EU core principles because they think the UK is above the rules that other counties live by.

Passing a law that prevents UK from leaving without a deal is an open cheque book for the EU as they can offer UK ridiculous terms safe in the knowledge they can’t reject as no deal has been removed

This.

How this is not blindingly obvious I do not know.

also Corbyn is a hypocrite of the first order

Customs Border in the sea. That's the way to leave.

What a ridiculous situation and I have no idea what they are hoping to achieve by that vote last night.

No deal is the default on A50. Trying to remove it, from a U.K. point of view, is madness but then having no idea what to do after that is even worse (I'm assuming there is no grand plan).

There is no other deal except the WA which according to the speaker cannot be bought before the house again in the same sitting term for a 4th time.

The only person that can possibly negotiate any amendments to the WA is BJ (his team) and I'm not sure he is going to be that keen after last nights performance, not to mention he now has a weaker hand.

What a bunch of complete twats.

Of course they’re letting us leave on reasonable terms

Some might say the WA that was voted down three times by MPs, including Labour, was reasonable.

My point is that if law is passed that prevents UK from leaving the EU without a deal the EU can move the goalposts of the WA even further and UK would be powerless to resist. For example;

Divorce bill is increased from 39 Billion to 139 Billion

Can only "leave the EU" if UK remains in the CU and SM

The rebate on the amount UK donates to the EU is scrapped

The list is endless.

How this is not blindingly obvious I do not know.

Because anyone with half a brain realises it would only be effective if the EU fear it. But while it isn’t their preferred option, it’s not a huge deal to them.

No deal is much more damaging for the UK than the EU and everyone with a grasp on the situation understands that.

The UK are in a weak position and were always going to be. But holding their own economic suicide over the EU as a bargaining tactic was never going to be particularly effective.

As anyone with any experience in negotiation will tell you.

My point is that if law is passed that prevents UK from leaving the EU without a deal the EU can move the goalposts of the WA even further

The EU have behaved reasonably this far (unlike the UK) no reason to believe what you suggest. Plus they’ve been clear, time and time again, that they’re not renegotiating the WA.

They do stick to their word. Unlike Boris.

But while it isn’t their preferred option, it’s not a huge deal to them

Absolute rubbish. The precedent it would set would be disastrous for the EU.

No deal is much more damaging for the UK than the EU and everyone with a grasp on the situation understands that

But it's more damaging for the EU for us to leave with a 'no deal' than an agreed deal, that is why it's madness to remove it. That's negotiation. We now have nothing in our hand - whoppee do!!

The precedent it would set would be disastrous for the EU.

Total rubbish.

Compromising on their pillars would be far more dangerous for them.

At least it's made it abundantly clear that neither Labour or the Lib Dems have any kind of understanding of how removing no deal will be catastrophic for the UK. So that removes two potential voting options for me.

We now have nothing in our hand - whoppee do!!

All we’ve removed is our economic suicide note. That’s a step forward for a reasonable person - we’re not signalling ourselves as crazies.

As a George Costanza would say ‘I have no hand - no hand at all!’

You really don't get it do you.

No deal is much more damaging for the UK than the EU and everyone with a grasp on the situation understands that

If law is passed that prevents no deal what prevents EU from moving the goalposts further in their favour?

If I was Barnier and aware that UK had passed a law that prevents no deal, I would not bother to turn up at the negotiations. All I would need to do is to type a list of what UK must accept based on fact that new law does not allow UK to reject. Then hand over the list to anyone who fancies a free trip to No. 10 Downing Street and say;

Deliver that and bring it back after Johnson has followed the UK law and signed

Plus they’ve been clear, time and time again, that they’re not renegotiating the WA

So no deal it is in accordance with Article 50.

Total rubbish

Compromising on their pillars would be far more dangerous for them

A no deal results in a border between ROI and NI in accordance with EU Laws. So the borders that are seen in Eastern Europe between EU and Non EU Countries would be replicated on the island of Ireland.

Any softening of the border between ROI and NI by the EU would have to be replicated in Eastern Europe under WTO rules of the most favoured nation principle. Even Taoiseach Varadkar has acknowledged that a no deal will require border checks between ROI and NI.

Has he actually deselected the 21 who voted against him so they have to cross the floor too?

I've never understood the view that keeping No deal on the table is a negotiating tactic. It presupposes that the EU is terrified of that prospect and will give us a better deal to avoid it, but recent history has demonstrated very clearly that that just isn't going to work. They have made it very clear that, although they don't want No deal, they will accept that if it means preserving their borders, because that is even more important to them.

For the EU, No deal won't be great for them, and it will be offset by retaining control of the border; for us it will be disastrous plus we'll still have a hard border with Ireland, which again is more disadvantageous for us than the backstop would be. It's a no-brainer, really.

So no deal it is in accordance with Article 50.

Fortunately that's not the only option. Withdrawing Article 50 makes much more sense. After all, the Leave campaign promised repeatedly that it wouldn't be triggered unless and until there was a good deal on the table, so it's fully in accordance with what people voted for.