Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

I struggle to believe either that Johnson is genuinely trying to get a deal out of the EU

I don't believe it either. It's not in his interest - the ERG would rip him to bits like a rabbit if he seriously attempted to deliver anything but no deal. In any case, it would be a very difficult task even for a skilled and competent negotiator, which BJ is not. He can't hack it. It was said of him as mayor that when challenged all he had was bluster, and it's true. I agree with those who think one reason for the prorogation is to mask his utter incompetence.

But then it might drop on my head! I'm gonna try and wait and see if it goes away.

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
One Conservative rebel tells me as many as 20 Tory MPs have rebelled.

“Jacob Rees-Mogg was a great recruiting sergeant,” the MP told me.

#Brexit

This is like England doing penalties. For our futures.

I have negotiated many multi-million pound deals. I've had to respond to ITTs, knowing that my company is the preferred bidder - thanks to having developed good relationships with my customer. Similarly, I developed partnerships with my suppliers, when I've been the customer.

I've worked in the NHS during the time of of the Purchaser-Provider split. The group of ex-industry people I joined the NHS with were all shocked to find that the politicians and the less commercially experienced senior managers in the NHS seemed to think that "good" business was screwing your supplier/customer. There is no point in screwing your supplier/customer if they then go bankrupt/close down when they are the only local supplier of that product or service.

Threatening to "walk away" is never a good negotiating position It's not good practice for any operation where you want to have an ongoing relationship.

Maybe if you're in India, Kenya or Bali and don't need whatever it is you've got your eye on ...after all, it's a luxury and therefore you can walk away

But not in the real world.

....and breeeeeaaathe

Long wait a concern

Ha, Ruth on BBC Parliament just made a reference to it being like "Westenders".

Did anyone else just catch the westenders reference on bbc parliament!!!!

Recap for latecomers:

This vote is on the Emergency Debate under Standing Order 24,
called by those opposing No Deal

If they win, they will be able to take control of the parliamentary timetable tomorrow from 3pm

So tomorrow they would introduce their Anti No Deal bill

Yes!!

"Westenders" Waves to Dr Ruth and Mark!

Ruth Fox just referred to the dramatic secenes as Westenders. Almost right!

So we want the ayes to win?

Thanks for the recap BCF.

Oops. Cross post.

I was just thinking that too Oubliette. Men wouldn't believe it until 'told' by another man.

Yep 😁

Threatening to "walk away" is never a good negotiating position. It's not good practice for any operation where you want to have an ongoing relationship.

I've said the same in relation to litigation. It's the equivalent of me telling the other side that my client wants X or they'll drop their case and get nothing. It's a pointless, empty threat. Anybody who's ever negotiated anything knows that it's a stupid tactic.

Arj Singh @singharj
DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr signals 21 to opposition benches with his hands 👀

Delay in the aye lobby, BJ doing the response, not JRM.

Ayes 328
Noes 301

The Ayes have it

Opposition win

Ayes 328
No 301