Westminstenders: It's a trap!

[RedToothBrush]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.

If you are wise then I think Peregina (and BCF) have it spot on.

The optics are all for creating a positive circumstance for Johnson and a GE. Everything is about a GE. There is nothing about either no deal or a deal coming from government presently. Its always stank of being a trap but it not being quite clear what they were up to.

I think it's starting to become clearer.

Timing is everything and perception is essential and that's always been obvious. Johnson has to be seen as tough and hard line.

May's problems all stemmed from the party civil war and lack of majority. Realistically to survive Johnson has to solve this somehow. A GE gives him the opportunity to get rid of troublemakers and purify the party but he can only do so with Brexit Party supporters. Or a coalition with the Brexit Party as a last resort.

His strategy all along has been about demonising and laying the blame. And it's quite clear there is deliberate incitement going on.

Johnson HAS to be challenged for it to work though. Either by Labour going for a GE or by a VoNC sooner rather than later so a GE can fall mid Oct.

If this doesn't happen Johnson runs into problems and has to seriously consider abusing to powers of the executive to do anything. I suspect he'd try this and we'd have a constitutional crisis but this is plan B rather than plan A.

Johnson wants to be in control of the timetable without being seen to do it himself.

That points to an earlier election he has denied he wants. And rumours are now circling for 14th October election that Cummings wants to call next week - the minor detail here being the mechanics a of the FTPA. Johnson can't just call a GE without repealing the act (needs a majority to do so which he doesn't have), complying with the act (2/3rds of the House vote for it which requires Labour support) or a VoNC and he then calls a GE.

A 1st Nov GE requires him to drive us over the cliff, which is currently technically unlawful and provokes no deal the government isn't prepared for. Its extremely high risk as a strategy. It might well still be in play, but its a last resort I suspect.

A VoNC and the temptation to form an alternative government is high risk strategy as despite saying Johnson would refuse to resign, he could well just be saying this to provoke the strategy.

Remember: Propaganda is always about playing to emotional behaviour to illicit the 'right' behaviour.

There is this mentally amongst some remain quarters that only leavers are 'stupid enough' to fall for this. And there is this idea that everything that's going on now is to whip up leave feeling.

Is that true? Who is taking to the streets?

I do suspect that enough hard-line Remainers will be so angry that they act recklessly with emotions rather than rational and potentially fall for it. That's the trick. Get people emotional and you can control their behaviour. That's what Cummings did for the referendum. Except he manipulated Leave voters. He's trying to do the reverse with Remain voters now. So the question is to what ends and it does seem to come back to what Peregina says above. And whether Remainers can see it and respond to it, or become so caught up with the outrage.

Of course if the public are wound up enough and their representatives on the remain side don't play ball, then they become disillusioned and this also has an effect on voter moral (less likely to turnout). So it could be win win strategy anyway, unless this danger isn't spotted and the opposition fail to call it out and defuse it. All their messages so far are not doing so. Win Win to Cummings.

I think there are definitely two plans in action here. A preferred one and a less preferred one. Strikingly for all this game theory talk, it does look like it's about Johnson and Cummings retaining control of the narrative and the timings for a GE. Brexit itself is something of an irrelevance to this. It's not what they are trying to achieve though. Johnsons priority is to stay in power, not manage Brexit responsibly though and that's the key to understanding it all, whereas Dealers and Remainers priority is simply about preventing no deal. Johnson ultimately doesn't care about this, if he can stay PM.

Grieve and Gauke are popular local politicians.

The modest influx of thick shouty funded fascist trolls to their local parties has been met with disgust by long standing party members.

They stand a good chance of re election I'd say.

Especially, f they switched to Lib Dem;they'd storm in.

If Tory MPs are deselected, then they know they have nothing to lose

Katya Adler @bbckatyaadler
Sense in EU of confusion, concern plus a deep distrust in Johnson government. Diplomat from country traditionally close to EU that has a lot to lose from no deal #Brexit tells me: "We can see Boris Johnson is playing a game but we don’t understand the rules or the strategy.” /1

EU focus now is dramatically different from beginning of Brexit negotiations when Brussels' plan was undoubtedly to get UK to agree to the most advantageous deal possible seen from the EU perspective BUT /2

With no deal now considered the most likely scenario by EU, the bloc is in self-preservation, damage-limitation mode, with EU leaders wondering how they ..and the EU as a whole .. can emerge from the Brexit drama as unscathed as possible /3

Political leaders - like Merkel or Rutte in NL - very keen indeed that a deal be found. Aware of economic impact of no deal for them at home plus they envisage likely acrimonious EU-UK relationship emerging post no deal that they fear will serve Putin and Trump most of all BUT/4

EU leader keen-ness to find a #Brexit compromise should not be confused as willingness to do whatever it takes to get a deal with UK. EU single market concerns are paramount when looking at alternatives to backstop. Merkel certainly not looking for deal "at any price" /5

PM's EU envoy David Frost is back in Brussels this Weds, possibly Friday too but his visits regarded by EU so far as "optics" aimed at domestic UK audience, rather than negotiating substance. Johnson gov has yet to put realistic alternative to backstop on the table /6

Officially EU position is 1) it awaits UK proposals because 2) the backstop as stands is the only credible solution that fits the UK red lines as set out by Theresa May and recognises unique situation on island of Ireland BUT privately some key EU players thinking... /7

"Did we miss something?" "Were we too focussed on encouraging UK to a closer position with us post #Brexit ?" "Is there a workable alternative to backstop that protects all-Ireland economy and EU single market enough?" /8

One possibility being considered (though viewed by many in EU as leaving too many exploitable holes) is sector-by-sector deal for Irish border conundrum: eg one for vetinary checks, for steel goods etc. Similar to what EU has (and swore never to replicate) with Switzerland. /9

Most simple solution for EU and the PM (in EU's opinion!):A return to original Northern Ireland-only backstop (could be dressed-up as st else if Johnson wants to make it more palatable in UK). Maybe works if Johnson holds election before UK leaves EU + no longer relies on DUP/10

EU musings that pm could hold a NI referendum on Northern-Ireland only backstop in knowledge that NI polls suggest majority there very much in favour /11

BUT bottom line is that EU will only make compromises on backstop - if painful ones for EU - if bloc is convinced that a majority in parliament is guaranteed to approve the revised deal. Right now EU leaders see Johnson doesnt have the numbers /12

Johnson's weakness in parliament impedes deal-making far more than a "Rebel Alliance" threatening to stop no deal on 31 October or EU being or not being fully-convinced of Johnson threat of no deal (NB they ARE convinced and that has made them more willing to engage) /13

I notice that - as so many other times in #Brexit process - both sides misunderstand one another: Johnson&co think no deal threat will make EU cave (but Brussels won't unless a compromise is in their wider interest) and some in EU still think if they refuse to engage.. /14

Then Johnson will buckle just before 31 October, when faced with political, economic cost of no deal. In fact: unlikely he would. Whatever happens, bets are on that EU leaders scheduled summit mid Oct will NOT be final word. Emergency EU summit (or 2) expected later October /15

Wise (and reassuring) words here from an OE with a good deal more intelligence and integrity than certain of his contemporaries:

infacts.org/johnson-threat-to-kick-out-rebel-tories-will-backfire/?mc_cid=ede5b30e34&mc_eid=79fd60440f

Rebecca Bailey and the old man seem to have successfully snatched defeat from the arms of victory again. I started to listen to the news conference but had to switch her off. She is a joke as a public speaker, never mind prospective labour leader. Following orders from uncle len and seamus? Or maybe the 'rationalist'? or all 3?

Bailey is clearly as thick as 2 short planks. They usually are.

Jo Maugham QC @ jolyonmaugham
A really rather important thread on what happens to 'prorogation' if there is a vote of No Confidence, from @Prof_Phillipson.

Robert Craig @robertcraig3
The House of Commons can only prove that an alternative MP is best placed to command its confidence if the House is sitting at the time. The 14 days could run out during prorogation.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/08/28/what-happens-after-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-the-pm-a-route-map/
What happens after a Vote of No Confidence in the PM? A route map

Gavin Phillips on @Prof_Phillipson
Thread Suppose a motion of no confidence is passed this week? Two arguments to say that continuing the prorogation of Parliament would be unlawful because it would frustrate the intention of the FTPA. @JolyonMaugham @JoshuaRozenberg; @davidallengreen @Keir_Starmer

2) Following a VONC s 2 provides for a 14 day period during which a new Govt may be appointed by HMQ. Following such an appointment a positive vote of confidence in the new Government stops the 14-day countdown to the election. Hence the 14 day period has two purposes

3) The first purpose is to allow a putative new PM to demonstrate that s/he can command the confidence of the Commons and hence should be appointed as PM. This purpose would arguably be frustrated were Parliament prorogued.

4) This is because certain parliamentary procedures that could be used to demonstrate confidence – e.g. an EDM or Emergency Motion stating ‘the undersigned have confidence in [X] and hereby petition HMQ to appoint him as PM forthwith’ could not be passed.

5) The second and perhaps stronger argument is that were Parliament to be prorogued, the positive vote of confidence in the new Govt (s 2(3)-(5)) that stops the election that would otherwise happen could not take place.

6) That provision is there because if there is a new Government that commands confidence an election is no longer necessary and indeed should not happen. But if parliament is prorogued that vote cannot take place and hence the second purpose of s 2 FTPA would be frustrated.

7) Conclusion: if a s 2 FTPA motion of no confidence is passed this week, it would arguably be unlawful to continue with the prorogation since it would frustrate one or both of the statutory purposes of s 2 FTPA. [ENDS].

Corbyn is usually very dim, but he has cunning when it comes to his own personal interest

..... maybe he realises that his only chance to become PM is now, because even after a year or so he'd be too old to cope ?

It is a reflex with him, relying on the old normal before the ref, when losing a GE didn't risk a sociopathic hard right govt tearing up every right & benefit that the wc & vulnerable have gained over the last 70 years

Agreeing to a GE when the chosen date would be after No Deal is totall irresponsibility

Even if he just thinks ahead politically, it is far better for Labour to let the Tories continue until No Deal has bitten hard for a year or so.
After that Tory disaster, Labour could win a landslide and stay in power for a generation

But of course, under younger PMs.
Not Corbyn

Adam Tucker @adamjtucker
Ironically, with prorogation looming, strategy of delaying Assent is foreclosed by the procedural rules of the Lords.

Prorogation procedures happen in the Lords, and Standing Orders include the requirement that Assent "must" be dealt with before Parliament can be prorogued:

www.itv.com/news/2019-09-02/robert-peston-asks-how-will-the-rebel-tories-decide-whether-to-vote-against-johnson/
Robert Peston asks: How will the rebel Tories decide whether to vote against Johnson?

The 20ish Tories weighing whether to risk expulsion contain many heavyweights. In recent years they would have been seen as loyalists, the spine of May’s government. But their horror of leaving the EU makes them, for Johnson, the enemy within.

They are:

Philip Hammond
Greg Clark
David Lidington
Ken Clarke
David Gauke
Stephen Hammond
Antoinette Sandbach
Steve Brine
Ed Vaizey
Guto Bebb
Rory Stewart
Nick Soames
Dominic Grieve
Caroline Spelman
Oliver Letwin
Philip Lee
Sam Gyimah
Richard Harrington
Alistair Burt
Justine Greening
Sarah Newton
Anne Milton

They tell me that the factors each is weighing up include whether they are persuaded at the last by Johnson’s insistence that he cannot secure a Brexit deal from the EU - based on the abandonment of the backstop - unless and until the EU’s leaders are convinced his threat to exit without a deal is credible.

Truthfully though few of them expect Johnson to get a Brexit deal by the end of October. They think no-deal is where the PM is heading. And therefore the judgement of some of them about whether to defy him is based to an extent on whether they or their families have become fed up with politics and will see expulsion as a welcome step to a different life.

And for others who relish the fight, there is the prospect of running as an independent Conservative candidate in a looming general election and endeavouring to humiliate Johnson at the ballot box - which could happen if they persuade the LibDems to give them a clear run in their respective constituencies.

I expect the LDs could be persuaded. I don't think any of those seats are particularly likely to go LD in other circumstances.

The Wall St Journal shows the chilling demands re the NHS & other public services that we'll face from the USA

• and probably give in to - if Corbyn falls into the Cummings / BJ trap of a GE:

jeremy warner@JeremyWarnerUK

Mmmm. Doubt that editorials like this (Wall Street Journal) are going to exactly help the political case for a comprehensive free trade deal with the US as an alternative to the EU

Granny I don't know of any E27 countries requiring current residents to apply from their home country
Are you sure about the plans in your host country ?

If you already have a residence permit you can apply from within. But you can't normally apply for your first one from within. The problem is that we're already here and have been for a while, so the current process doesn't work for us. They're trying to come up with solutions, the latest being a years grace. But after that year, if your paperwork isn't sorted then you're an illegal immigrant.

Tamara Cohen @tamcohen
Breaking: Cabinet summoned to meet this afternoon.

Is it an election?

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
By my current tally, there are at least 16 Tory MPs who have privately or publicly confirmed they are undeterred by the de-selection threats and will vote on no deal bill

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Tory rebels

They are confident of around 19 rebels with perhaps half a dozen on top of it — which wd mean defeat for government

>> how will gvt respond. This is fuelling some election talk inside Whitehall, tho absolutely no confirmation from No10 who haven’t commented yet

Peter Walker @peterwalker99
I’m in the room for what I imagine will be the first Downing Street lobby briefing at which reporters can legitimately ask: “To check, does the government believe in the principle of the rule of law?”

I actually asked that, and the answer - in précis – was: yes, we believe in the rule of law. But we can't commit to this in the specifics of a backbench law blocking no deal. So that's a "yes and no".

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Official UK government position on rule of law:

"we believe in the rule of law but we can't commit to this in the specifics"

Remarkable

Genuinely, frighteningly remarkable

What a state we are now in (in both senses)

Ladbrokes Politics @Labpolitics
Ladbrokes: October general election odds crash into Evens.

Labour could win a landslide and stay in power for a generation
And will cease to exist if they don't.

Incidentally.
Compare and contrast political nous and competence of Bailey and Cherry: Both working class women.
One had a Scottish education, the other didn't.

Hope Bailey and the old man haven't given succour to the bath toy about supporting a GE.

I expect the LDs could be persuaded. I don't think any of those seats are particularly likely to go LD in other circumstances
The remain alliance will be including 'independent conservatives'.
Beaconsfield, I'm guessing would be very amenable to that.

No. 10 staffer may or may not be genuine, but the company accounts for JRM can be checked:

number10staffer #leaks @number10staffer

"what’s in it for Mogg? (Brexit)

Somerset Capital management, has been short selling sterling for months.
< that we already know - they are betting on No Deal being bad for the UK>

The more turbulent the more quick return.

JM pays him self a part time wage of £14.000 a month, here’s a snap of the accounts:"

Corbyn refuses to rule out backing early election even if bill blocking no-deal fails

If it wasn't a coup before.......it is now.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/02/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-threatening-to-deselect-tory-rebels-to-provoke-early-election-claims-gauke-live-news

Milne and Cummings up a tree K.I.S.S.I.N.G.

An October GE is one hell of a gamble for Labour
A November GE - which is what BJ would probably choose - would likely be catastrophic

Could Corbyn be applying his own game theory:
terrifying the anti-No Deal alliance into voting for him as replacement PM, with the threat of a massive Tory majority for 5 years

Re rule of law and government position

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
The Lord Chancellor @RobertBuckland, the Attorney-General @GeoffreyCox and the Solicitor-General @MichaelEllis1 should all now immediately resign as a matter of principle

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
🚨 Cabinet meeting at 5pm today, Boris Johnson then addressing all Tory MPs in Downing Street garden at 6pm. Feels like something is afoot. 🚨

Re Pestons lists

Dom Walsh @domwalsh13
Looks about right (I also have Djanogly, James, Lefroy and Hoare as possibles but that’s based on votes and statements, not intel)

Total number = 22. Easily enough to outweigh Labour and Independent rebels.

Govt. majority if whip removal threat was enacted: minus 51

**Oops, it’s minus 41 actually, miscalculated - but point still stands

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
If it is an election by my reckoning (assuming dissolution end of this week) earliest possible date would be October 17th.

Would be first election in October (and first not in spring/early summer) since 1974.

Tamara Cohen @tamcohen
IF election is called (we don't know yet) and if its pre-Oct 31, No10 must be confident
- Brexit party neutralised by Boris tough talk alone
- Labour now seen as receptacle for Remain votes
- Northern Labour voters put Brexit above all else

Many Tories deeply sceptical

They are probably confident of the "Corbyn Factor":

That Tory Remain voters won't vote for him, neither will most centrists and many 2010 / 2015 Labour voters won't either