Peter Foster @pmdfoster
EXC: Inside Brexit War Cabinet:
- Dominic Cummings described EU negotiation as "a sham" in internal strategy meetings, per two highly placed sources.
- AG Cox warned Johnson it was "complete fantasy" to think EU would bin backstop 1/thread
At the heart of this story is the question as to whether:
a) the Johnson administration is sincere about getting a new deal with the EU
b) if they seriously trying, having not yet presented any substantive proposals /2
So here's what I know after weeks of intensive reporting.
Let's start at the beginning. July 29 First meeting of Brexit War Cabinet - or EU 'Exit Strategy', or XS cmme in Downing Street, four days after Johnson's 'bin the backstop' statement to commons. /3
In that meeting Sherpa David Frost made presentation entitled “Approach to engagement with the EU on renegotiation” - in which the repeated idea was to "run down the clock". That was adopted as 'formal policy'. /4
It was difficult to see what the actual detail of a new deal would be - since @BorisJohnson had alread ruled out a) time-limit b) exit clause as insufficient.
So how did he know that wasn't a serious renegotation gambit? Well because the Attorney General told him! /5
That happened on Aug 1, at meeting of XS to discuss implications of July 29 meeting.
Cox told Johnson it was "complete fantasy" that EU would drop backstop - and that taking that route would lead to "path to no deal" /6
At the same time, Whitehall could see that there was - is - no serious preparation for a negotiated deal.
Indeed per two highly placed sources Cummings described the EU negotiation process as a "sham".
Downing Street, on behalf of Mr Cummings says this is a "categoric lie" /7
Well. All I can say is that I 'stand by my reporting' - I will never reveal sources, but I'd stake the detail and accuracy of all of the above and three years of consistent reporting on #Brexit on the double-sourcing of this.
Are there two 'fantasists' out there? /8
Of course, I recall that I once wrote a story saying that Olly Robbins was discreetly sounding out Brussels on a 'no deal' extension - that was a categoric lie too - until it wasn't.
So it's 'he said, she said'. I'll leave regular readers to make judgements. /9
If you want a sense of that reporting history (I've done pretty much bugger all else) then you can read this long read in @prospect_uk
magazine.
t.co/7QzCg5FEBf
But lets get back to substance.... /10
...because Johnson says the chances of a deal are 'rising'
@michaelgove says the EU is "shifting"...
Both plead for more time for their 'deal' strategy to work. And yet there is not substance to the 'plan' - other than 'run down the clock'. /11
You might have heard some talk about "sectoral deals' or 'aligning SPS' or legal texts...but talk to those responsible for delivering "operable realities" (a posh word for stuff that people and businesses can actually use) and it junk. /11
The SPS plan is only on DUP agreement (no way) and anyway only fixes 30 per cent of border issues.
The legal text is, per source, the backstop with the meaninful clauses crossed out.
NOTHING has been put on table./12
But what about those talks which Frost is going to attend in Brussels on Wednesday..well, they discussed the 'plan' for those at the XS meeting last week.
Frost reminded the 'six' of the plan to run down the clock and said the talks were for "domestic handling reasons". /13
Now, it seems clear that there might be divisions between Cummings and Johnson about what is possible, about the "abundant techincal fixes" that Mr Johnson believes in - but there is no sign of any of them.
This might be why, at the same meeting.../14
It was agreed to Frost should try to open a 'no deal mitigation' track to run in parallel with the supposed 'deal negotiation'
They will, per EU sources, get the same answer they did when they tried this in August. "No".
As @MichelBarnier said, 'no mini-deals' /15
Now, ultimately, no one can completely rule out the Trumpian 'reverse-ferret'...where Johnson settles for something cosmetic, declares it a "tremendous success" and then dares Parliament not to vote for it.
But to be clear, there is no evidence of that /16
MPs pondering the sincerity of ministers promises that a 'deal is in the wind' should ask themselves, 'what deal?' What does it look like? Where are the texts and the documents?
Because Whitehall is flat out drafting 'mini deals' they 'hope' the EU will accept /17
I understand that internally Cummings and his camp actually argue that the Oct 17 #EUCO should be used not to force a deal, but to force the EU to agree to mini-deals to soften a 'no deal'. /18
Either the plan is to get a deal - unlikely, since even AG Cox says the current abolish the backstop plan is "complete fantasy"....OR it's to give the impression of wanting a deal while the clock runs down. /19
Ultimately everyone has to decide for themselves, but they should do so on basis of available evidence, not warm words or wishful thinking.... MPs must decide too. Big week. 20/ENDS