Westminstenders: It's a trap!

[RedToothBrush]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.

If you are wise then I think Peregina (and BCF) have it spot on.

The optics are all for creating a positive circumstance for Johnson and a GE. Everything is about a GE. There is nothing about either no deal or a deal coming from government presently. Its always stank of being a trap but it not being quite clear what they were up to.

I think it's starting to become clearer.

Timing is everything and perception is essential and that's always been obvious. Johnson has to be seen as tough and hard line.

May's problems all stemmed from the party civil war and lack of majority. Realistically to survive Johnson has to solve this somehow. A GE gives him the opportunity to get rid of troublemakers and purify the party but he can only do so with Brexit Party supporters. Or a coalition with the Brexit Party as a last resort.

His strategy all along has been about demonising and laying the blame. And it's quite clear there is deliberate incitement going on.

Johnson HAS to be challenged for it to work though. Either by Labour going for a GE or by a VoNC sooner rather than later so a GE can fall mid Oct.

If this doesn't happen Johnson runs into problems and has to seriously consider abusing to powers of the executive to do anything. I suspect he'd try this and we'd have a constitutional crisis but this is plan B rather than plan A.

Johnson wants to be in control of the timetable without being seen to do it himself.

That points to an earlier election he has denied he wants. And rumours are now circling for 14th October election that Cummings wants to call next week - the minor detail here being the mechanics a of the FTPA. Johnson can't just call a GE without repealing the act (needs a majority to do so which he doesn't have), complying with the act (2/3rds of the House vote for it which requires Labour support) or a VoNC and he then calls a GE.

A 1st Nov GE requires him to drive us over the cliff, which is currently technically unlawful and provokes no deal the government isn't prepared for. Its extremely high risk as a strategy. It might well still be in play, but its a last resort I suspect.

A VoNC and the temptation to form an alternative government is high risk strategy as despite saying Johnson would refuse to resign, he could well just be saying this to provoke the strategy.

Remember: Propaganda is always about playing to emotional behaviour to illicit the 'right' behaviour.

There is this mentally amongst some remain quarters that only leavers are 'stupid enough' to fall for this. And there is this idea that everything that's going on now is to whip up leave feeling.

Is that true? Who is taking to the streets?

I do suspect that enough hard-line Remainers will be so angry that they act recklessly with emotions rather than rational and potentially fall for it. That's the trick. Get people emotional and you can control their behaviour. That's what Cummings did for the referendum. Except he manipulated Leave voters. He's trying to do the reverse with Remain voters now. So the question is to what ends and it does seem to come back to what Peregina says above. And whether Remainers can see it and respond to it, or become so caught up with the outrage.

Of course if the public are wound up enough and their representatives on the remain side don't play ball, then they become disillusioned and this also has an effect on voter moral (less likely to turnout). So it could be win win strategy anyway, unless this danger isn't spotted and the opposition fail to call it out and defuse it. All their messages so far are not doing so. Win Win to Cummings.

I think there are definitely two plans in action here. A preferred one and a less preferred one. Strikingly for all this game theory talk, it does look like it's about Johnson and Cummings retaining control of the narrative and the timings for a GE. Brexit itself is something of an irrelevance to this. It's not what they are trying to achieve though. Johnsons priority is to stay in power, not manage Brexit responsibly though and that's the key to understanding it all, whereas Dealers and Remainers priority is simply about preventing no deal. Johnson ultimately doesn't care about this, if he can stay PM.

From the Times article
Mr Johnson’s authority is slowly being eroded. Several ministers texted him directly yesterday to express their concern about the idea of a purge of moderates. “It’s a mistake and very one-sided,” one member of the cabinet told me, “and it doesn’t protect the Conservative Party.” Another senior Tory says that there is a growing sense of “buyer’s remorse” among some of the pro-Europeans in the government. One minister compares moderates such as Nicky Morgan or Amber Rudd sitting around the cabinet table to “hostages” and admits: “It’s very difficult working out day to day

Also
According to one insider, Number 10 has been polling “culture war” issues, such as transgender rights, to see whether they can be weaponised against Labour in northern working-class constituencies but this would only reinforce the Tories’ reputation among metropolitan liberals as the “nasty party”. A former cabinet minister fears the Conservative Party could be destroyed. “The country is now divided along the lines of Leave or Remain, not left or right, and we could end up being smashed.”

This might not bother Mr Cummings, who has expressed his contempt for the Tories in the past, but it worries Tory politicians. One backbencher says that getting Conservative MPs to support an early general election “is the modern day political equivalent of the 1970s Jonestown mass suicide [in which cult followers took their own lives on the orders of their leader]” and more are coming to the conclusion that they would prefer a second referendum to resolve the Brexit crisis.

It then goes on about Sun Tzu and appearing weak when you are strong, which I'm slightly mindful about...

To any lurkers lurking thinking they have nothing to add....have you seen Johnson? Trump? You dont have to be good at things these days just throw yourself in

The channel 4 programme forced me to go to the shop to get wine out of sheer frustration.

Hazard 😂😂

I’ve broken out the Gin.

is the modern day political equivalent of the 1970s Jonestown mass suicide
Have been thinking that another thing those born after 1970s may not know about is the prevalence of daft, and sometimes dangerous cults in the 1970s: Bhagwan, Moonies, Jones town.
Brexit and Trump are mass versions, with social media and mullah.

Also drinking

I've drunk more since the annouced prorogue (spell?) then I have ALL year.

Everyone says Dom is this strategic genius who gets the public mood but at the education department a series of reforms that should have been popular ended up being toxified by his confrontational, battering-ram approach

Anyone who had DC who went through secondary school during the Gove Era knows what a catastrophe it was. It was a series of changes from one year to the next so no comparisons could be made, the teachers lost track of what they were doing and the poor students were so stressed out and some had work they had done disregard. Shambolic, chaotic and stressful .

Truth post

Anyone who had DC who went through secondary school during the Gove Era knows what a catastrophe it was

As someone who works in education I wholeheartedly agree. You felt like you were constantly having the rug pulled from beneath you. As for the students. It was as though they'd almost reached the top of the mountain, only to be told that actually they were supposed to be swimming the channel.

According to one insider, Number 10 has been polling “culture war” issues, such as transgender rights, to see whether they can be weaponised against Labour in northern working-class constituencies but this would only reinforce the Tories’ reputation among metropolitan liberals as the “nasty party”.

And this is what targetted Facebook ads are for: every audience gets a different message. This is Cummings' home turf and how he got Brexshit lies to receptive listeners without them being challenged.

"Corbyn will have to defend that for whole [election] campaign. He’s fuck"

Another reason for Labour NOT to allow a GE if the bill passes. Or even if it doesn'.
Let memories fade if Labour agree the bill might be unpopular on the doorstep

Thanks for the share token, witty

Another senior Tory says that there is a growing sense of “buyer’s remorse” among some of the pro-Europeans in the government. One minister compares moderates such as Nicky Morgan or Amber Rudd sitting around the cabinet table to “hostages” and admits: “It’s very difficult working out day to day

I have zero sympathy for Morgan and Rudd . They didn't need to go into Government. They knew what they were signing up to. They could gave said No. Others did. They could still walk away.

They sold out. Hell mend 'em.

I imagine some of the FWR will go for Tories then as trans rights are another single most important issue for women.

WaterSheep I am very grateful to all of DD’s teachers, could see what they were going through. It’s GCSE year again in our family and I am concerned after previous experience.

I am utterly shocked that this man Cummings who comprehensively screwed over so many in Education to the extent that his puppet Givevhad to be removed before the election, now appears to be running the country. How did we get here ?

I thought N. Sturgeon said "general election - bring it on!" Or similar?

But her agenda is for Scotland, not England ...

... and is it just me, or has Boris aged these past few weeks ?

heh, heh

Post Especially if you were outside any school in the U.K. waiting for your DC to come out after collecting their results when they deflated the English GCSE results. And then sixth form colleges within hours were ignoring them, and two years later so were universities. Very effective tactic for building up the credibility of GCSEs 🤔. Teachers and educational professionals across the education sector including Heads of prestigious private schools (ones that are far more “rigorous” and meritocratic than Eton) who Cummings presumably would assume had a stake in his plans for meritocracy were briefing against the developments in the exam system, because they were not going to underpin a meritocracy at all but go back to a system that failed so many that were actually able.

It was what made me raise the possibility he might just exit whistling, like his Bullingdon buddy.

Bullingdon don't do hard work.
They leave that for others, after they have trashed a place

@nothingwittyhere many thanks for that Times link. Fascinating.

Robert Peston@peston
Labour and @jeremycorbyn face huge decision on Wednesday whether to vote for a general election if it comes to that. As @EmilyThornberry told shadow cabinet, under Fixed Term Parliament Act Labour can insist @BorisJohnson takes no-deal off the table, that...

he must accept the Brexit-delay bill as a condition of Labour voting for a general election. In theory dissolution of parliament requires two-thirds majority so Labour can block election. Thornberry told colleagues it would be wrong to agree to fight a general election on...

Johnson’s terms. But if Johnson guarantees election will be 14 October, before both crucial EU council and Brexit day 31 October, Labour would be accused of cowardice if it refused to fight an election. I am also told that Downing Street has “war-gamed”...

the scenario of Labour opposing an election and thinks“t here is a way round it” such that election would still happen. So tomorrow’s vote is probably - probably - all about whether there is an election on 14 October. But nothing about this is simple.

such as transgender rights, to see whether they can be weaponised against Labour in northern working-class constituencies

More and more makes me think the 'transgender rights' supercede Women's Rights thingy is a right wing trolling exercise. Dutifully reproduced in this manor.

I imagine some of the FWR will go for Tories then as trans rights are another single most important issue for women

Hazard I am highly dubious about many of them there threads.

Almost like it's a fake debate to shut down acual discussion and actions about class, race, disability and sex rights.