Westminstenders: It's a trap!

[RedToothBrush]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.

If you are wise then I think Peregina (and BCF) have it spot on.

The optics are all for creating a positive circumstance for Johnson and a GE. Everything is about a GE. There is nothing about either no deal or a deal coming from government presently. Its always stank of being a trap but it not being quite clear what they were up to.

I think it's starting to become clearer.

Timing is everything and perception is essential and that's always been obvious. Johnson has to be seen as tough and hard line.

May's problems all stemmed from the party civil war and lack of majority. Realistically to survive Johnson has to solve this somehow. A GE gives him the opportunity to get rid of troublemakers and purify the party but he can only do so with Brexit Party supporters. Or a coalition with the Brexit Party as a last resort.

His strategy all along has been about demonising and laying the blame. And it's quite clear there is deliberate incitement going on.

Johnson HAS to be challenged for it to work though. Either by Labour going for a GE or by a VoNC sooner rather than later so a GE can fall mid Oct.

If this doesn't happen Johnson runs into problems and has to seriously consider abusing to powers of the executive to do anything. I suspect he'd try this and we'd have a constitutional crisis but this is plan B rather than plan A.

Johnson wants to be in control of the timetable without being seen to do it himself.

That points to an earlier election he has denied he wants. And rumours are now circling for 14th October election that Cummings wants to call next week - the minor detail here being the mechanics a of the FTPA. Johnson can't just call a GE without repealing the act (needs a majority to do so which he doesn't have), complying with the act (2/3rds of the House vote for it which requires Labour support) or a VoNC and he then calls a GE.

A 1st Nov GE requires him to drive us over the cliff, which is currently technically unlawful and provokes no deal the government isn't prepared for. Its extremely high risk as a strategy. It might well still be in play, but its a last resort I suspect.

A VoNC and the temptation to form an alternative government is high risk strategy as despite saying Johnson would refuse to resign, he could well just be saying this to provoke the strategy.

Remember: Propaganda is always about playing to emotional behaviour to illicit the 'right' behaviour.

There is this mentally amongst some remain quarters that only leavers are 'stupid enough' to fall for this. And there is this idea that everything that's going on now is to whip up leave feeling.

Is that true? Who is taking to the streets?

I do suspect that enough hard-line Remainers will be so angry that they act recklessly with emotions rather than rational and potentially fall for it. That's the trick. Get people emotional and you can control their behaviour. That's what Cummings did for the referendum. Except he manipulated Leave voters. He's trying to do the reverse with Remain voters now. So the question is to what ends and it does seem to come back to what Peregina says above. And whether Remainers can see it and respond to it, or become so caught up with the outrage.

Of course if the public are wound up enough and their representatives on the remain side don't play ball, then they become disillusioned and this also has an effect on voter moral (less likely to turnout). So it could be win win strategy anyway, unless this danger isn't spotted and the opposition fail to call it out and defuse it. All their messages so far are not doing so. Win Win to Cummings.

I think there are definitely two plans in action here. A preferred one and a less preferred one. Strikingly for all this game theory talk, it does look like it's about Johnson and Cummings retaining control of the narrative and the timings for a GE. Brexit itself is something of an irrelevance to this. It's not what they are trying to achieve though. Johnsons priority is to stay in power, not manage Brexit responsibly though and that's the key to understanding it all, whereas Dealers and Remainers priority is simply about preventing no deal. Johnson ultimately doesn't care about this, if he can stay PM.

Chris Mason @ chrismasonbbc
The European Commission is considering classifying a No Deal Brexit as a “major disaster” like an earthquake or major flood, reports @adamfleming

Officials are working on a proposal to add a No Deal Brexit to the list of events covered by the EU’s “Solidarity Fund”, which provides emergency cash for countries hit by a disaster.

Officials will discuss the proposal this afternoon and it could be approved by European Commissioners and published as soon as Wednesday. The change will have to be agreed by the European Parliament and the member states because it’s a change to EU law.

A problem for an @PhilipHammondUK or @DavidGauke who may embrace being kicked out of Tory party to run as an independent candidate in looming general election is they can’t brand themselves as “Independent Conservative” on ballot paper, Electoral Commission tells me. Unless...

They change their name by deed poll ?

Officials will discuss the proposal this afternoon and it could be approved by European Commissioners and published as soon as Wednesday. The change will have to be agreed by the European Parliament and the member states because it’s a change to EU law.

Ah, that undemocratic EU, eh ?

Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
BBC now creating narrative that Labour has to agree to election on Johnson's terms. No way: we only vote for an election once Johnson withdraws the threat of No Deal - it's entirely legit for Corbyn or others to attempt a caretaker government which negotiates extension.

pmk

Tokyo An October or November GE shouldn't stop the party conferences, which end the first week of October
That leaves plenty of time for a good rousing GE campaign launch

Parliament normally votes for a recess over the conference season, so no reason to affect the conferences.

Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 working days before a GE, so about 5 weeks
So any scheduled prorogue time before that would stay
A GE automatically brings in a new Parliament, which won't be prorogued

A GE after No Deal - probably early November -
would neutralise Farage
and would very probably result in a working Tory majority that could last out the full 5 years

An October GE
would leave Tories vulnerable to him -maybe split the rightwing vote and let in Labour -
.... unless they had No Deal in their manifesto - explicitly ruling out any deal - and made a deal with Farage not to stand against Tory candidates who have a good chance of winning

Darren Jones Mp @darrenpjones
Given the lengths this Prime Minister will go to I won’t be voting for a General Election if it risks a no deal Brexit happening. The first and only priority at this stage should be emergency legislation to stop a no deal Brexit. No doubt an election will come after that.

Anna Soubry MP @anna_soubry
Any MP who votes for a #GeneralElection is voting for #NoDeal #Brexit. The priority must be to pass legislation to stop no deal and that’s what MPs of all parties are determined to do. #CountryFirst

Numbers for a vote for a GE could be interesting. Darren Jones is Labour

Thanks so much @BigChocFrenzy you are an utter star!

What would happen, hypothetically, if the SNP ran on a campaign of "the material change in circumstances means that supporting SNP in an early GE is in effect a vote for independence" and then wins 56 or 59 seats

After all, Ruth delivered her 13 Scottish Conservative MPs on a campaign that was explicitly "vote Conservative to show you are anti-independence"

Could the SNP then declare UDI on 1 November if No Deal happens?

Not going to happen, but nice to imagine

Jon Stone @joncstone
A reminder that the government can’t ‘treat’ a vote like a confidence vote anymore under the Fixed Term Parliament Act - e.g if they want an election they still need to meet (or circumvent) the conditions of the Act

and that means tabling a separate, specifically worded confidence motion and voting no confidence in themselves, then allowing 14 days for a new administration to form (or voting a two thirds majority to call an election, or repealing or amending the act)

But apparently… no, it’s more complicated than that. See this thread:

Dr Catherine Haddon
For any needing explainer, ‘confidence matter’ is govt declaring it sees this as an effective vote ON the government - if you lose and if you follow through there are traditionally 2 options:
1. Call Election (requires Parly vote)
2. Resign the govt

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/confidence-motions-Parliament

This is significant partly because many constitutional experts have been arguing for a while that this sort of confidence motion ought to still exist, despite FTPA. All it takes is govt to declare it as such.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/queen-speech-and-fixed-term-parliaments-act

But difficulty is that govt cannot unilaterally threaten an election, which they used to before Fixed Term Parliaments Act (FTPA). This was a big stick in this convention.

In this case that can work since the govt would effectively dare Labour to refuse to vote for an election.

And worth noting that if we ended up at a vote for an election the PM still decides date for an election under FTPA. The FTPA clause is specifically worded and amending it to specify the date would negate the provisions. That date also decided after the vote.

Which brings us back to the reason why this form of confidence vote still exists despite FTPA - because it can be a very canny political tool and weapon of last resort for a PM.

Final thought (for now): govt declaring it considers a particular vote a matter of confidence would in usual times have been the headline story of the day. It’ll be just one of many and a lot of people will just shrug that they’ve said this. But it is very notable.

Just pointed out to me - if this legislation goes ahead and all effectively treat it as a confidence motion, then it also could discourage Labour rebels from voting against legislation, if they see it as effectively voting confidence in govt.

My gate is due to be called in 5 mins, so I'm going to disappear soon (will probably keep going for a while yet but I am liable to drop off line suddenly)

I don't know why - but something has just made me wonder if Boris has actually lost control somewhere ? It's not that what may be happening isn't what he might have wanted, but that the timing is out of his hands ?

There's been a lot of faux panic these past few weeks, it might be hard to see the real thing ?

I wonder why David Cameron didn't make it a priority to scrap the FTPA as soon as he got in in 2015 ? It seems to have really thrown a spanner in everyones works. Might we yet be grateful for it ?

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
NEW: Remainer source says they expect PM to put down a dissolution motion (calling an election) with what appears to be a “reasonable” polling date before 31 Oct, trick MPs into voting for it, then use prerogative proclamation power to move polling day to after 31s Oct.

Remainers insistent they won’t fall for it

Good. They are on the ball.

Not all agree it a likely option though

Jon Stone
going into an election explicitly arguing for no-deal, with election day on or just after supermarket shelves start to empty and two-day long lorry queues form at ports? they are not going to do this

the election will be before we leave the EU, so that

- the Tories can win a majority to pass the withdrawal agreement

- during the campaign they can claim a new deal is just around the corner

- they can have five years between selling out the Brexiteers and the next election

Except there are too many ERG to pass the withdrawal agreement as it stands... Though line from EU is they might shift if Johnson has numbers to pass a deal.

But

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
What if election day was 1st November? By then, shelves would still be plentiful, lorry queues would only just be stacking up. Too soon for electorate to gauge the full extent of No Deal?

Firstly, seems a bit strange having a meeting with all Tory MPs in No 10 gardens given the rebels? Presumably no cameras? Perhaps it's just to introduce cat? Or engagement for him and Carrie?

Secondly, Corbyn circle fancy themselves to win a general election. Seriously?

Robert Peston@peston
So to reinforce what I said about the gravity of tomorrow’s vote, rumours swirling that Cummings wants to lose (I am not persuaded!) so he can purge Grieve and other rebel Tories and then take on Corbyn’s Labour before 17 October EU council...

So to reinforce what I said about the gravity of tomorrow’s vote, rumours swirling that Cummings wants to lose (I am not persuaded!) so he can purge Grieve and other rebel Tories and then take on Corbyn’s Labour before 17 October EU council...

PS I'm around-ish tomorrow but have things to do and may be out of phone contact for at least some of the day

@BigChocFrenzy I'm expecting this thread to be full by 6pm...

Wonder how many MPs and political types read this thread? (Ha! and lol!) Seems like so far, maybe only Blair

Firstly, seems a bit strange having a meeting with all Tory MPs in No 10 gardens given the rebels?

I have a vague memory there's something special about them ? Didn't John Major move the cabinet into the gardens after the IRA mortar attack ?

Probably no wifi/3G/4G signal ...

Officials will discuss the proposal this afternoon and it could be approved by European Commissioners and published as soon as Wednesday. The change will have to be agreed by the European Parliament and the member states because it’s a change to EU law.

If it has to be approved by member states, doesn’t that mean that Boris could just veto it?

No worries @redtoothbrush
I'll get my OP ready, in case you aren't around

Horehound congratulations.

I can't even begin to start with explanations.

Here's a post I wrote on the last thread regarding BJ's plans.

1. Crash out with no deal. Crazy, "no deal, we just want to leave, Brexit means Brexit" part of the population happy. Disaster capitalists happy. People that would have been affected by new EU tax laws happy. DUP happy (for the moment anyway).

1. Immediate GE, winning overall majority (Brexit party are gone, shops aren't empty yet, no deal reality hasn't been as bad as people said/is spun as not being that bad). DUP are now gone.

1. Immediately sign up to backstop for NI only but call it some other thing, free port or what not. (Nobody cares anyway except the DUP and they're goners, see 2.)

1. Do essential deals with the EU fast.

1. Unleash further austerity, now with the excuse of Brexit.

1. Have further tax cuts for the wealthiest because the economy needs to be stimulated or some such thing.

1. Continue with the dismantling of the NHS.

1. Enjoy all the extra money from 1 and 6.

1. Enjoy the adulation from the leave means leave brigade.

But nobody knows about the timing of a GE. Before Oct 31st or after, and is JC stupid enough to vote for one? What are the opposition trying to do to prevent no deal? Can they push legislation through in a couple of days before parliament is prorogued? Is there any hope?

Dog has been named Dilyn. Which means there's an election hey this is great prLoyal

To play both sides I would think the election has to be before 31 October now. Difficult for Labour to argue for Extension request / No Deal block if they could have time to do it after winning a GE. Difficult to argue election is to secure No Deal or WA if explicit rationale is to give Boris a decent majority to negotiate convincingly with EU - somewhat neutralises both Remain Tory and Brexit Party (most of even Brexit Party voters would prefer a Deal to No Deal but thought May too weak to deliver and / or wanted BRINO).

Ooh an on message puppy! Dilyn

Queen BJ announced a couple of weeks ago that the UK was withdrawing from all EU meetings
and that if any result in a vote, Finland has our proxy vote to abstain

He could theoretically choose to reverse this and veto the EU SOlidarity Fund, but it would be clear agressive sabotage of EU prepping, not anything helping Uk prepping.

Anyway, even if he did, the EP would have passed it, plus the other 27 members would
so it would become EU law at 11.01pm on 31 October, or if necessary have a quick video conference then to vote

Dr Catherine Haddon @cath_haddon
A reader* asks a VERY good q.

'If there is an election on 17 Oct how long before Parl returns after?'

Well now. Normally, it takes 2-3 weeks for swearing in and all sorts of other things, before Q Speech.

Could they do more rapidly? Yes, but what, a week?

it was @jillongovt*

I think around 2015 GE we discussed ways and means they could sit and meet before the State Opening. But i've forgotten where we got and will let others explore that.

Now of course if a majority govt is elected who, say, wanted no deal exit. Then issues about how to get an extension are out the window anyway. The govt has a policy and will implement it.
But it would mean no ability to scrutinise the last two weeks before exit.

If a majority govt was elected that, say, wanted an extension. Then also fine. As soon as they become PM they have the ability to go off an request so (others can argue about whether Parl has a role then)