Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

Let’s go over that again: the better-informed and cleverer you are, the more vulnerable you are to certain biases, such as motivated scepticism, because you are more able to destroy the arguments that you don’t like, but still feel no particular desire to examine the ones that you do.

Yup, sounds about right (see FTPA discussion passim)

Oh yes, the global casino industry is certainly expanding at an exponential rate as a result of the expansion of casinos in Asia, many with western brands, and it is playing a significant role in the development of Asian economies . Macau only ten years ago had one slightly seedy casino, now the development of big multi storey casinos is staggering and more money is gambled there than in Las Vegas. Sihanoukville in Cambodia is suffering a form of economic ethnic cleansing, being developed into another satellite for Chinese gamblers. It is a not insignificant factor in the troubles in Hong Kong, the threat to Hong Kong identity manifested in Macau’s disappear under a sea of flashy multi storey palaces for Chinese gamblers and in a bridge newly opened to suck Hong Kong into the development of the greater Pearl River delta. Exactly where does our great buccaneering nation of free traders figure in that scenario apart from in the history books....

DS used to work in a casino in Chinatown ... as he once said:

Dad, do you know how long it takes to count a million pounds ?

(He's moved a couple of miles, since)

Let’s go over that again: the better-informed and cleverer you are, the more vulnerable you are to certain biases, such as motivated scepticism, because you are more able to destroy the arguments that you don’t like, but still feel no particular desire to examine the ones that you do

Why le philo is or was compulsory in le Bac.
Whereas men in dresses is compulsory in british state schools. (RS)

Never let a good crisis go to waste
A nice little earner

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/29/uk-political-parties-rise-donations-conservative-labour-snap-election

A total of £15m was donated to Britain’s political parties between April and June, more than double the sum received in the first quarter of this year.

Amid speculation of an autumn snap election, parties have significantly bolstered their campaign war chests.

Danger, the authoritarians in the electorate may be a large majority

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/30/parliament-johnson-prorogue-democracy

In a recent YouGov poll, 63% of respondents agreed that MPs must “act according to the wishes of their constituents, even when this goes against their own judgment”,

a figure that reached 78% among leave voters and
– at which point Edmund Burke spins in his grave – 81% of Tory supporters.

It is no accident that, like so many populist forces, Nigel Farage’s Brexit party claims to be in favour of direct democracy.
Whatever its dangers, it is an idea that may be perfectly suited to a future of easy and instant everythin

Whenever I hear stories like that woman19 I am very grateful my mp is Caroline Lucas

On a lighter note so many cartoons these days are STEM focused :) I think I will be a stereotypical Italian mamma and nudge DS towards engineering (joking, he's 3)

So e.g. these prominant Leave MPs are traitors to their Remain constituencies and should immediately switch ...

Kate Hoey 77.7% Remain
Dominic Raab 58.4%
John Redwood 57.3% Remain
David Davies 51.9% Remain

and many other assorted Tory & DUP Leaver MPs whose constituencies voted Remain

BigChoc
You missed out nice Mr Corbyn

Anne Main and Bim Afolami represent St Albans and Harpenden which voted remain. Anne is a staunch Leaver. Apparently Bim was anti no deal but has just joined Boris’s government. That hasn’t gone down well locally. He took over from Lilley who st least stuck to his Leaver principles.

When is Jared O' Mara's last day? which implies he ever did a days fucking work as an MP

hooo
Have you looked at the petition map for Jared's constituency .... interesting

I still wonder why there is such a low level of political engagement all around Stoke and the West Midlands (on either side of the debate or any other issue)

Engineering rocks! And there’s a massive shortage of engineers in the U.K.
the vast majority of tall buildings around the city and London are the result of the brain drain of engineers from italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(French have excellent engineers too, but they are clever and mostly move to finance as soon as they understand the pay difference)

I’m sure I’ve mentioned this before: I was invited to do a “speed dating” event with primary school teachers to show them the variety of careers in stem. Most of them come from similar backgrounds and have never met an engineer before. Or a criminal pathologist. Or a DNA sequencer. They couldn’t believe we looked so “normal” :-)))

And going off topic spectacularly, but IMO the problem with stem is that the English (English!) system requires a choice too early, and too drastic. You can do only 3/4 subjects at A levels and if you like science you do...math, chemistry and physics? Biology? If you like humanities, you’ll resist choosing a science when there are so many humanities to choose from but only 3/4 to take. Either way, you can end up being locked in a “sector” (the boffin or the artist or the wordy type of person) when you’re too young to know what you really want. And you might become a master in sciences but have no general knowledge of history or literature....which is a pity, cause young brains really are full of potential and diversity is the spice of intellect as well

LQ I don't know why...there are real pockets of alarming voter apathy around these parts...

A major reason is lack of educational aspirations and achievement.

The BBC 'coverage' is really pissing me off. Theres some 'journalist' on now talking about "Luvvie hysteria".

Speaking of the brain drain...I have many many cousins, before they'd often do a year abroad/work for a bit in the UK. Now everyone's going to Germany.

A little reminder of tomorrow and beyond protests www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament

Cherin DDs have quite a few friends who answered the call for women engineers. Now they are going into management consultancy mostly, one in marine biology, and just one is in engineering and that in the very creative area of working with architects on idea driven design concepts. I don’t think it was an issue of environment, just that they saw it as a dead end which would lead them into using their project management skills in other areas anyway so why not jump to where their interests / the money lies (and I appreciate the money is good initially) straight away.

camomila Many UK scientists going to the Netherlands too

In Germany, when I went to the town hall only a few days after the ref, it was so welcoming
Especially when I said I was a STEM PhD with an R&D job already in the town.

No hostile environment here !

That prorogation bounce

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
Chgs. w/ 28 Aug

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Grant Shapps on Today: “Boris Johnson has made more progress in a few weeks” than has taken place for years.

Just a reminder that no actual changes have occurred. The EU has said they will listen to UK ideas if they’re compatible with the WA. That’s it. They haven’t moved.

When challenged the minister referred to “mood music”. This is meagre stuff.

Why spin that great progress is being made is useful to govt:

1. to deter Tory rebels from legislating next week on no deal.
2. when they bring back similar deal in Oct to make it look/feel different

The EU’s position has been to say if you can come up with better ideas than the backstop then we’ll have them instead of the backstop.

That is- quite literally-what the EU’s position on the backstop has always been.

In other words, they have given Johnson in 30 days what May would have had in 18 months if we’d passed the WA and been working on alternatives to backstop in the transition period. Interesting definition of huge progress.

Insofar that there are positive public noises from the EU, more generous than perhaps we’d expected, as several EU sources have told me, they’re highly conscious of not wanting to be seen as too truculent and be blamed for no deal. They’re already thinking about the blame game.

That isn’t to say the EU isn’t trying to find a solution or working with the UK on finding one. But their fundamental demands and position have not changed.

Exhibit number 72728, m’lord:

Antonello Guerrera @antoguerrera
JUST IN

German Foreign minister Maas:

“We cannot imagine reopening the Withdrawal Agreement, we assume that Brexit will happen on Oct 31”

“We’ll do everything to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But the British government has made it clear that if there is no agreement No-deal happen."

David Gauke @Davidgauke
I suspect we’re going to hear a lot in the next few days about how well negotiations are going. This thread sets out the reality.

So on the basis of that YouGov poll, Labour, the Lib dems and Greens would have 50% of the vote. Good reason to start working together.

I disagree that engineering is a dead end. But there is an issue with progression in technical roles and too many engineers get pulled into project management (and are often a bit rubbish) because it's seen as a step up. (And possibly because technical expertise is not valued enough)

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking?__twitter_impression=true
‘Culture of fear’ claims as Javid confronts PM over adviser’s sacking
Dominic Cummings tells advisers he’s ‘pissed off’ about briefings on pay and gender balance – report

A furious Sajid Javid confronted Boris Johnson on Friday and demanded an explanation of why his media adviser was sacked without his knowledge, amid claims that a deep “culture of fear” has taken hold within the government.

Sonia Khan, Javid’s media adviser, was escorted from No 10 by an armed police officer after a meeting with Johnson’s top strategist, Dominic Cummings, in which she was accused of being dishonest about her contact with the former chancellor Philip Hammond and one of his ex-advisers, who have been trying to block a no-deal Brexit.

Cummings goal in this is reform of the civil service and SpAds.

Keep this in mind