Westminstenders: 30 days to save us all!

[RedToothBrush]

It's quite remarkable to watch the British press atm.

It's like it doesn't understand English. Well only if its English spoken by foreigners.

Merkel made the observation that the UK had spent two years looking at the Irish border but had failed to come up with a workable solution, and now Johnson has waltzed in and made statements about how the backstop must go, and only has 30 days in which this can be achieved.

The British press writes this up as Merkel giving the UK a deadline to come up with a new solution.

Which is nonsense. The UK have a deadline to save itself, from itself and that's 31st October. This is a self imposed deadline.

Meanwhile comes out with the Brexiteer smack down that he didn't think the UK wS leaving the EU to regain its sovereignty only to become a vassalage or junior partner to the US.

Both these ideas being the result of leaving the EU have long been key issues. From before the ref. Both have been the UK's to solve in order to get the terms the UK wants from a deal.

The referendum was about choosing to align with the EU or to ditch that and rights and align closely with the US. Then Trump happened and the sell on this got harder, but still essentially the same. And it continues.

And then there was the Irish border. The magic solution to Brexit that doesn't break the GFA. I personally think there isn't one as long as the DUP have their red lines about the Irish sea.

So here we are. More than 3 years after the ref.

Leavers still have no plan. Apart for charge headlong over the cliff. Remains still have their heads wedged up their own backsides and also, after spending months criticising every one else on social media anyway who makes a stand again this bull shit.

Yet the newspapers fail to report what Merkel said or why the UK has this issue in the first place. Its an ongoing exercise in national delusion and self denial.

In prctice, it could be difficult for an Opposition to resist a govt call for a GE, at least for long

What reason can they give ?
That they think the govt is doing so well ? That they are afraid of losing ?

In this particular situation, the Opposition would do best to hold out not just until after 31 Oct,
but also until the damaging effects of No Deal become noticeable to the general public,
which could be 6 months or longer

The next GE could destroy the party that wins it, if it is after No Deal,
because for 5 years they would have to cope with major crises that would likely worsen

If No Deal actually happens, Corbyn & Labour - and the SNP too - might well prefer to let the Tories cope with their own mess
and not allow a GE until the Tories are truly enmired and polling about 10% !

Sophia Gaston @sophgaston
In Merseyside, the boycott of The Sun after Hillsborough & the subsequent shift to The Mirror, encouraged the area to be more pro-European & pro-Remain than other similar areas.

Fascinating new preliminary media effect findings trailed in the FT.
t.co/m4o9KI72s3

If Labour or any coalition did form the govt after No Deal and a prompt GE,
then Brexiters would forever claim the following problems were because Remainers were in charge, instead of BeLeavers

Very possible - under FPTP - that an even further right Tory party and / or Farage would storm the GE after next.

Link to paper t.co/S8y7IsMr17 itself

Brexit: shutting down parliament 'gravest abuse of power in living memory'

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/brexit-shutting-down-parliament-gravest-abuse-of-power-in-living-memory-legal-advice?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copiar_en_el_portapapeles

"Surely DEMOCRACY will win out?"

Not if those supporting democracy can't agree on how to do so
and if some prioritise other issues e.g. keeping out Corbyn, or keeping out Tories

The problem is that the hard right & far right are united on prioritising No Deal and will sacrifice anything for this:
the economy, their party, Scotland, NI ...

Another example of the weakness in the British Constitution:

Trump is a far crazier and more ruthless leader than BJ, but it is legally impossible for him, or any other maverick POTUS, to choose to suspend or dissolve the House or the Senate

The US Constitution has many faults, but its most important virtue is that its framers limited the powers of any POTUS
and gave many powers to the individual states.

Their aim was to prevent a mad / bad President from overriding Congress to take absolute power
King George had concentrated minds on trying to avoid a future elected dictator

(of course, there can be no defence when voters elect a fascist POTUS and too many fascists in Congress.
There's no defence against half the country going batshit)

BJ's plans after No Deal - stacking the HoL

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-peers-house-lords-appointments-farage-a9079221.html?

Boris Johnson is to create a swathe of Brexitt^ peers to redress what he sees as an anti-Leave imbalance in the House of Lords.

But Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage is not expected to be among those honoured for their part in taking the UK out of the European Union.

The first tranche of six so-called “Brexit heroes” < 🤮🤮 > is set to be named some time after the UK finally quits the EU, if withdrawal goes ahead on 31 October as the prime minister plans.

< Is this the language we are to be subjected to after ND - “Brexit heroes” ? 🤮 >

So if Johnson No Deals us October 31st, goes for a General Election, as BCF says, before the worst of No Deal kicks in, wins a (small) majority, won't be be in danger of the crap ness of No Deal ends up with him having to (ignominiously) resign? 🤔

BJ's plans after No Deal - stacking the HoL

Once again, this DGR asks, what's the point of the Monarchy then ?

I also imagine that - for different reasons - Boris is asking exactly the same question.

system1group.com/blog/brand-boris

Farage is very quiet at the moment, no? Biding his time.... I found this research fascinating, not a poll tracker but a commercial research company applying methodologies used for emotional brand building to UK politicians. Boris' fame helps enormously but Farage is better liked by key constituents. He's keeping his powder dry for the moment.

I'd put money on the likes of Cummings using these kind of insights and learning from the "Thinking Fast and Slow" school of thought. Convincing people how to vote can be treated the same way as convincing them what to buy. It's pretty clear from 3 years of Brexit that it's not rational policies people assess when they vote.

Surely Johnson is asking what do the monarchy do for me?

Their aim was to prevent a mad / bad President from overriding Congress to take absolute power

But don’t we also have this? The monarch has to approve the request for prorogation, so doesn’t he/she act as a backstop of sorts to prevent abuse of the system? Whether she would feel able to do so or not in this case remains to be seen. But that would also answer DGR’s question about the point of the monarchy.

Always thought we had a constitutional monarchy? in that the monarch will do whatever the Govt asks her to do (or advises) its a rubber stamp role.

She would be signing the royal families death warrant if she went against the govt of the day.

In this particular situation, the Opposition would do best to hold out not just until after 31 Oct, but also until the damaging effects of No Deal become noticeable to the general public, which could be 6 months or longer

Or make asking for an extension a condition of allowing a GE, so that the public can vote on whether they want No Deal or not. The problem is that many people think No Deal is the status quo, and as we have seen on some of these posts, others think No Deal is absolutely wonderful.

BCF, the POTUS has however managed government shutdowns. I'm not sure the US is one to emulate! Their states do have more powers: contrast the weakness with centralisation in Britain and the slow haemorrhaging of local government powers and local civic life. This has all been coming for years.

We are back to having to re-examine the basic functional needs for a democracy to exist, back to the same old discoveries that the classical world made millennia ago. Even land ownership, which cropped up recently, is an age-old dispute. It's about time we stopped thinking our age is so superior and progressive and free from the same old boring social constraints that have been worked out throughout human history - IT has not changed anything fundamental! Democracy needs information, education and controls on too much luxury and power for some and not enough for the rest.

Always thought we had a constitutional monarchy? in that the monarch will do whatever the Govt asks her to do (or advises) its a rubber stamp role.

Yes, that’s how it is in practice, but in theory, the monarch can say no. In a situation where the PM is trying to prevent a democratically elected parliament from doing its job (in effect, acting like a dictator) she probably should say no. I don’t think anyone thinks that she will, though.

I know I seem obssesed by the Monarchy, but it's hard not to feel a tad conned when every discussion about whether they are relevant or important in UK politics has been rebutted by the casual "ah, but they are our protection against extremists" (which, incidentally, was also the excuse for not being too fussed about FPTP).

Except, the present situation reveals that to be - as our US chums would say - a "crock".

I'm now of the belief that Brexit delivered will be the end of the monarchy as a political force. Fool me once etc.

Gotta feel sorry for the Queen in this. She's coming to the end of a long life which has, whatever you make of the rest of the Royals, always been marked by exemplary socially correct behaviour however those norms have changed. Now she's potentially faced with this. Lose/ lose/ lose/ lose. is she going to take the hit, or bow out?

@borntobequiet

Spot on

Sean Citizen @seanpcitizen
Too many in UK obsess on a single aspect of the current open border - the absence of border infrastructure. The challenge is to avoid the need for checks, not to conceal, move or automate them. A high tech, automated border with remote checks is still a hard border.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
This

Someone tell... Er... Everyone

A high tech automated border is magical thinking anyway. What are they going to do, iris scan everyone? Implant some sort of responder? Barcode everything on the island? It's massive privacy invasion of a sort only China has put into practice so far.

If you'll forgive me the hubris of quoting myself - IT does not change anything fundamental. It's merely a tool. It's not magic.

“We asked the people to vote on whether they wanted to stay in or leave the EU; they voted to leave by a big majority.

Arithmetic is clearly not Johnson's strong suite - a close result which ought by rights to have been regarded as a tie, and would have been if Remain had won, is not 'a big majority'.

A high tech, automated border with remote checks is still a hard border.

Ahem, I think I have already said this, that the Customs House in wherever the checks take place becomes the border, and likely to attract the bombs.