Healing Divisions

[Camomila]

My latest Brexit worry...

If we Brexit, the country is going to be divided, angry, and poorer. But even if we don't, there'll be some angry people.

it is curious to see brexiteers attacking the judiciary, the civil service, the union and now the royal family

I am not sure how it is possible to "come together" with people who have so little respect for the constitutional institutions of their country.

Even worse... imagine if he'd been wearing a RAINCOAT while he said it.

Shocking, that was. Not like Dominic Cummings who is always the height of sartorial elegance. Or the impeccably tailored and groomed Boris Johnson.

jeremy corbyn dissing the queen while in a ...raincoat!

can you imagine the fall-out from that!

s.africa, ex-yugoslavia?

we haven't got to the depths of division some places have- so although it will be hard work, it can be done

These countries went to some very dark places before peace came about.
Also, having lived in SA i'm not sure divisions have been healed, papered over would be more accurate, still huge inequality and violence.
The solution for Yugoslavia was to split the place up and move populations around.

The UK, as you say, isn't at anything like these levels of division but for a 1st world country, we've gone a long way in a very short time for absolutely no reason or gain.

As far as i can see, any idea that we will come together as a country is decades away.. remember there is a generation coming up behind us that will demand we rejoin the EU, so another re-opening of division.

we've gone a long way in a very short time for absolutely no reason or gain

and thats the key disturbing thing about it for me- for the average people in this country its just a massive, massive loss-

and even brexiteers cant be arsed to lie about that anymore- even the thick ones are beginning to work out the damage that will be done but they're like, 'yeah it'll be crap but 'independence' and we're meant to nod and say ok fine.

Meanwhile, the new PM doesn't just follow in the footsteps of the previous one, but breaks new ground in the division stakes: "terrible collaboration" Yeah, those divisions are totally going to heal on Oct 31st.

he's a fucking twat.

thing is the thick brexiteers believe everything he says.

It is beyond doubt, in my view, that there are Members of Parliament who are trying to stop Brexit, a good many of them are very, very open about this.

So there is actually some sense in the argument that "why should the EU offer anything new?" when Parliament can still stop Brexit and if it does, no offer needs to have been made. They would be giving up something they didn't need to.

I think describing this a "terrible collaboration" as Boris has is very unhelpful, but his point can be seen.

I also think Phil Hammond is right though, there probably is enough weight in Parliament to stop "No Deal" but they'd better get organised pronto.

I think that’s probably what the EU are hoping for.

If MPs stop ‘no deal’ from going through what the chuff happens after that? has Phil got a cunning plan up his sleeve? will they bring the WA back for a fourth time? or will we just get a repeat performance of MPs running around like headless chickens, bickering amongst themselves and getting nowhere.

If I was a betting person I’d put my money on the headless chicken scenario.

If they've got any sense they'll couple up a vote against "no deal" with a vote in favour of another proposition. For me, that alternative needs to be something reasonable, and that likely means pretty close to what has already been agreed with the EU by the May Government or some defined alternative destination.

If we just get more posturing about "Revoke A50"; "a People's Vote" or a "Jobs First Brexit" then any remaining faith I have in our Parliamentarians will be absolutely gone.

NI only backstop. Border in the sea. Never tested in Parliament.fixes it now.

Well, at the moment although I'm not a Parliamentarian (until those divisions turn out not to be healing, anyway) I am very very open about preferring that Brexit is stopped. It's not contradictory with preferring a Deal to No Deal.

Any more than preferring not having any amputations at all is not contradictory with (if it were unavoidable) preferring to have a toe cut off rather than an entire leg.

You are right, @TheElementsSong . But if I can't have what I want - which is Revoke - I will accept the least worst version. I will never ever accept No Deal and my contempt for anyone who does is total. I won't spit in their faces. That's the best I can offer.

I know leavers and Remainers and some Remainers don't have foreigners in family and some leavers are from extremely multi cultural families from across Europe and the world.

But if I can't have what I want - which is Revoke - I will accept the least worst version. I will never ever accept No Deal and my contempt for anyone who does is total.

Basically my position too!

MaxNormal - my point exactly. If you insert UK instead of Scotland in your post you will see what I mean. Also I do think it's a bit ripe of you a Scottish Nationalist to slag off English Nationalists!!

If we Brexit, the country is going to be divided, angry, and poorer. But even if we don't, there'll be some angry people

Just a few angry little impotent men,and their employees, I think you'll find.

It has all helped me decide which side I'm on though. Me and 55% of the uk. And 27 allied nations.

Interesting times for the little men, I'd say.

Interesting times for the little men, I'd say. wink

and certainly not to be underestimated by the me's, 55%ers and 27 allied nations

well, its interesting ie difficult times for everyone.

if there were some positives to brexit then i expect more people would get behind it. its bewildering to be heading for something that even its advocates cant explain why its good.

Norway model for me.

Benefits for Leave Supporters are;

Norway can seek trade deals with non EU countries
Norway can't be overruled by ECJ
Payment to EU could be reduced so there is a Brexit Dividend

Downside for leave supporters

Some form of Customs Union would still be required

Benefits for Remain supporters are;

Access to single market
Checks on goods from Norway into EU subject to less control than Non EU Countries.

Downsides for remain supporters;

Can't think of any at present

I also think Norway model is a good one. I could get behind that much more than the WA.

Agree Mystery.

Way back in the heady Summer of 2016 - when I thought that Brexit was merely "shit" and before Maybot's Red Lines for Citizens of Nowhere - I imagined that a Norway+ model would best fulfil the result of the referendum. As exhorted by Leavers that "we lost" and to "get over it" I would very much have "accepted" that outcome.

And I still would, as being far preferable and more like an actual compromise, than the WA.

its bewildering to be heading for something that even its advocates cant explain why its good.

I can't speak for the people who post here, but for the wealthy brexiters in the Tory party and Government - the chance to make much more money and shaft the rest of us. But this isn't something they can really shout from the rooftops.

Well, trying to be even handed!
The Norway model has a huge hole in it from a leavers POV, we would have to accept FOM & we would be paying in but with zero say over rules and regs, plus we would have no influence on any reform of the EU, that would be driven by Germany and France.

Finding a solution that is acceptable to both, very entrenched sides, is impossible.

The WA is NOT a deal of any sort.
It is a pretty comprehensive list of the legal treaties that exist between the UK and EU which will need to be either accepted (the UK wants those specific treaties to finish) OR the UK might like to continue with as they are, or with possible modification.
Thus from this smorgasboard of items, around 700 or so a RESPONSIBLE UK government should indicate, by the declaration in the Political Document say which of the 700 it wants to keep, which it wants to terminate and when.
This is part of the documented withdrawal procedure.
Thus the plan SNOULD have been:
UK says it would like to leave.
Creation of the Withdrawal Agreement.
Discussion with the EU about which elements the UK wishes to withdraw from, and when. This is the PD.
Then the UK had 2 years to discuss and ratify the PD and the elements of the WA that it wants to leave.

Problems:
HoC had no clue what the hell they were doing.
ERG and others see prospect of disaster capitalism mechanism so happy to tell lies to enforce their point of view.
Practically all politicians failing to grasp the plot and each putting their own interpretation on the scenario, and expecting 'instant' results without understanding the long proceedure that the EU will follow.
The UK has fucked up even getting to the first hurdle, accepting the WA which is simply the 'rules of the game', like the rules for cricket or tennis. You define the parameters but not the outcome of the game.
Mr Barniers staircase shows the various levels of 'pre made' scenarios that the UK might wish, which would obviously require tweaking as the Norway or Canada models do not suit the highly integrated position the UK is with the EU.
In their turn, the EU has patiently waited for 3 years for the UK to say what it wants, rather than what it doesn't want. Of course they have seen the UK shitshow unfold so have taken precautions to protect the EU as far as possible but in many ways their hands are tied and can only wait for the UK to sort itself out.
Ultimately the WA, or something exceedingly similar WILL be signed because it is not a 'deal' as such, but the legal treaties that exist between UK/EU.
As it stands the legal date for the expiry of all these treaties is 31 October. From that point the UK will be a 'third country' with no legal ties to the EU. ANY cooperation by the EU from that point will be at the EU's discression. They have proposed their own 'emergency measures' for a limited time only and all will be to the benefit of the EU.