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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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NoWordForFluffy · 06/08/2019 18:14

@tobee, I've no idea what the get out of jail free thing means either. Surely it's totally the opposite?!

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 18:16

The Queen would be unlikely to dismiss Johnson.

Johnson is busy building a people v parliament narrative if a GE or Vonc is on the cards.

This is a potential threat to the monarchy itself.

Hence why the Queen would be likely to put the monarchy first and just let Johnson do whatever he wants...

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wheresmymojo · 06/08/2019 18:18

I heard something very unsettling today - I have Sky News on in the background while working from home and one of the experts being interviewed about the Iran situation said...

...it is very like the situation in 1914 and that one mis-step could result in a large scale regional war at least.

We have Boris and Trump in charge - the chances of a mis-step seem heightened. Sad

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 18:18

Johnson has gamed it like that for exactly this reason. To build an establishment v people story up... He's indirectly a threat to the monarchy as a result.

The Queen will be aware of this.

So lord knows what's going to be said next time those two meet.

She's currently up in Barmoral for the summer so not doing the regular meeting on a Wednesday evening with the PM.

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Peregrina · 06/08/2019 18:22

...it is very like the situation in 1914 and that one mis-step could result in a large scale regional war at least.

Indeed and Johnson may well find that it consumes him in the process. I won't shed any tears for him.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 18:22

Wheresmymojo, we've been on course for a 1914 scenario for a while. There are a couple of places it could blow up. This is in no small part due to Trump's handling of foreign policy and how power vacuums are cropping up.

There are flash points with Syria and Russia, North Korea and Iran. And Brexit certainly does not help because of the wedge between the EU and UK. Oh and I've not even mentioned NATO. Or Venezuela (where there are Russian and Chinese forces which have been 'training' or trying to expand their sphere of influence).

It just takes one event and fuck knows what could happen.

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wheresmymojo · 06/08/2019 18:25

If you are a freelancer it might be worth applying for e-residency of Estonia and getting a bank account with Starling as you can also open a euro account. Might be worth being paid in euros and having an EU-registered company.

@probstimeforanewname

What now? Is this a thing???

Oakenbeach · 06/08/2019 18:30

Rebecca Long-Bailey says Labour "wouldn't countenance a national government of unity" to deal with Brexit.

This has made me angry.... I reckon Corbyn and his cronies actually want a no-deal, and hope
to feast on the pickings after in the expectation that the LDs position will be less potent. Labour deserve to be destroyed for such cynical crap.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 06/08/2019 18:37

Oakenbeach Disgraceful isn’t it? I hope the Corbyn the fanatics I know don’t have the gall to say he can’t be blamed for this now. Yes, there are other more culpable, but he is the enabler.

yolofish · 06/08/2019 18:38

They are all completely cynical and totally in it for themselves IMO. I had an email from Heidi Allen today, inviting me to join Change UK for £5 a month. I've never joined a politcal party before, but am considering it, if only to create a change. Prob a waste of time/money, and too little too late.

Hazardtired · 06/08/2019 18:40

I'm confused after reading the Jon Worth tweet thread and some thing Grieve's (think it was him anyway) said....we might not need the Queen after all? I dunno...like I said I got confused.

Then there's the Scottish courts thing...

(I never did history at secondary school or politics or law or geography! I did sewing! And ART!!!)

But if labour are going to be cunts about a unity gov does it matter? I don't want a GE

howabout · 06/08/2019 18:45

Jess Phillips on twitter record saying she would not support a VoNC because it doesn't deliver a path to stopping No Deal. She also doesn't think Labour have the votes to win a VoNC.

In this context RL-B comments make even more sense.

prettybird · 06/08/2019 18:52

Thanks to these threads, I'm currently reading "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to war in 1914" by Christopher Clark but it's a very heavy read

The parallels are frightening - as they are with the 1930s. Sad

History is only helpful if we and especially the politicians learn from it SadAngry

tobee · 06/08/2019 18:55

Hazard I think sewing and art would be a lot more soothing at the moment though!

tobee · 06/08/2019 18:56

Oh I've got that book pretty! It's currently on my ginormous pile of unread books I think I waste too much time on Mumsnet?

DGRossetti · 06/08/2019 18:58

Just catching up - this would be particularly special as most Tories are loyal Royalists

Are they ? Or do they say they are ? If they were loyal to the monarchy, they'd also be loyal to the Union - the two are indivisible, as one Elizabeth Windsor has sworn to uphold.

I'm sure there's a not very nice word for people who profess loyalty to a Monarch for the brownie points, rather than sincerely - maybe I need to enrol in a JRM vocab refresher ?

DGRossetti · 06/08/2019 19:03

History is only helpful if we and especially the politicians learn from it

Who is suggesting they haven't learned from it ? After all, what happened to the ruling classes in Britain as a result of WW1 and WW2 ? They did alright, didn't they ?

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/08/2019 19:06

It's very depressing that labour are too stupid to see what is obvious. No one party can do anything right now (except take us over the cliff). If they want to stop us going over the cliff they have to forget the way things have always been done and work together.

It wouldn't even have to be for very long. Just the time it takes to hold a referendum. Then they would either revoke or sign the W.A the very next day and then hold an election.

If Labour aren't willing to even try that then, yes, they are as culpable as the tories. Delivering messages in what they won't do is not going to endear them to anyone. If they won't do that then they need a credible other plan (there isn't one) and they need to know exactly how it would work. Fair enough if they don't want to leak that plan but they should also shut the hell up about all the negative stuff as well, it only turns voters against them.

Motheroffourdragons · 06/08/2019 19:06

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Hazardtired · 06/08/2019 19:14

Maybe MPs need to be reading about all the wars that didn't happen instead of all the ones that did as the ones that did might give them ideas Hmm

tobe brexit wouldn't happen if we all painted with water colour Grin Sewing can be monsterous as the machines are alive

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 19:15

Learning from history includes learning where the authoritarian dictators failed...

... Just saying.

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Hazardtired · 06/08/2019 19:37

learning where the authoritarian dictatorships failed

So they can learn from their mistakes

I would say this danger never happens with art students but...y'know Hitler.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 19:42

Precisely...

Trump and Leave Campigns used all the 'best bits' of Goebbels.

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Hoooo · 06/08/2019 19:56

Told ya.
No deal it is.